Top 4 Takeaway Thoughts after NFL Week 4 Games

With the first quarter of the 2015 NFL season in the books, here are some of my takeaway thoughts after Week 4:

1. Too many Mediocre Kickers in the NFL.

The bizarre trend started on Thursday night when Josh Scobee of the Pittsburgh Steelers missed two Field Goals at the end of the game, allowing the Baltimore Ravens chances to tie and win the game.  Twenty-four hours later, the Steelers released Scobee and signed Chris Boswell to be their new Kicker.

 On Sunday the Philadelphia Eagles had Caleb Sturgis as their Kicker with Cody Parkey out for the season with a groin injury; Sturgis went on to miss a field goal attempt and an extra point attempt. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kicker Kyle Brindza went 1 for 3 on Field Goal attempts this past Sunday AND missed an extra point; he is only hitting on 50 percent of his field goals in 2015.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had two opportunities to win their game versus the Colts on Sunday, but their Kicker Jason Myers missed both Field Goal attempts.

On the flip side veterans of over ten plus years in the league Adam Vinateri, Robbie Gould and Sebastian Janikowski are consistent every year, averaging over 80 percent accuracy for their careers.  Also Atlanta Falcons have Matt Bryant and the Baltimore Ravens have Justin Tucker, both reliable kickers their teams know they can depend on.  Furthermore the Denver Broncos Brandon McManus is the team’s third full time place Kicker in the last ten years, all three of those kickers have a career average of over 70 percent accuracy.

The truth is that with the way the game is played in the NFL in 2015 Kickers are under-valued and teams are not doing a good enough job at evaluating talent or preparing their Kickers for Game Day.  The Steelers, Eagles, and Jaguars all lost on Sunday no thanks to their Kickers but none of these teams learned from the history of these players.  I always find it ironic when teams assume a guy will play different for their team because of the player’s “talent”.  With so many kickers in the NFL missing extra points and field goals, it is becoming ugly and teams need to do a better job at scouting along with development of their Kickers.

2. Devonta Freeman has “Wally Pip’ed” Tevin Coleman in Atlanta.

Coming into the 2015 season there was a battle in training camp for the Atlanta Falcons starting Running Back position.  Devonta Freeman coming into his 2^nd season after being drafted out of Florida State put up lackluster performances during the Pre-season leading to Rookie RB Tevin Coleman being named the starter.  But Coleman got injured opening the door for Freeman to get an opportunity to start the last two weeks.  Freeman has scored three rushing touchdowns in each game and compiled 342 Total Yards from scrimmage in two games.

Hall of Fame Yankees First Baseman Lou Gehrig was a “nobody” until starting First Baseman Wally Pipp took a day off due to a “migraine headache”. Gehrig would then go on to start 2,130 games in a row for the Yankees.   While I am not saying Devonta Freeman will be a Hall of Fame Running Back, I think it is fair to assume that Freeman has a strangle hold on the starting Running back position in Atlanta.  Coleman is a rookie, he is going to have to wait his turn when he returns from injury as that starting position is no longer exclusively his anymore.

3. The Eagles and Dolphins are a mess for a good reason.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins are 1-3 after Week Four of the 2015 NFL season for a good reason.  Neither team has learned from the past.  Both teams have been down this path before, having an offseason of big talent acquisitions then start the season playing underwhelming football.  The reality is, that building a team through free agency and trades rarely equals success.  You cannot buy wins and championships in the NFL.  If you could then the Washington Redskins would be a dynasty by now.

The Eagles have tried to build a team by unloading most of the players from the previous head coach and bringing in players Chip Kelly believes are good fit for his program.  But instead of building a team, he is trying to “plug and play” players as parts in a machine.  The Eagles have made the mistake, like many before, of overlooking the fundamentals of the game in order to be on the “cutting edge”.  The Eagles have seemingly regressed the last couple years as their Head Coach has unloaded talent and not replaced them with comparable skill players.  Spending a lot of money does not equal wins; it just means Byron Maxwell and Demarco Murray got paid for past performances.

The Dolphins have had roster turnover every year since Head Coach Joe Philbin arrived in Miami.  Instead of building a team around Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins have been swapping in and out players like pieces of a jig-saw puzzle looking for the “right combination”.  They dish out big money for Defensive Lineman Ndamukong Suh but they let reliable players such as Wide receiver Brian Hartline and Defensive Lineman Jared Odrick leave.  The team has played underwhelming on offense and defense in 2015.

I have said this numerous times: teams cannot buy championships or fabricate chemistry.  No team in NFL history has ever had great success with this formula yet the Dolphins and Eagles insist that it can work.  I remember someone asked about the arrogance of Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly and ineptitude of Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin in recent weeks; it appears both adjectives might be true looking at how 2015 has played out.

4. The Broncos, Panthers and Packers are undefeated in 2015 thanks to defense.

We have been inundated by the media for years about how a team needs a “franchise Quarterback” in order to win in the NFL.  Quarterback is one of the most important position in all of sports, I do not disagree, but Football is still a team sport and the unit must work together in order to win.  While Peyton Manning is a future Hall of Famer, Cam Newton is one of the most talented players in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the top Quarterback in the NFL, all of these teams are winning games thanks to the efforts of their defenses.

The Packers and Panthers defenses have only allowed a total of 71 points against in 4 games this season, an average of 17.8 points per game against.  Meanwhile the Broncos have allowed only 69 points against, an average of 17.3 points per game against.  These three teams are among the top defenses in the NFL in 2015 and after the first quarter of the season they deserve recognition.  Peyton Manning has looked subpar based on his own standards, Cam Newton has a below average group of receivers, and Aaron Rodgers has injuries to his Wide Receivers.  These Pro Bowl Quarterbacks can thank their defenses for coming to their aid to help their teams win games.

By the way, do you know the team that has allowed the least number of points against so far in 2015? The New York Jets with a 3-1 win-loss record have allowed a total of 55 points against, an average in 4 games of 13.8 points per game against.  In the era of high powered offenses and Quarterbacks getting paid multi-million dollar contracts, the old adage of “Defense wins championships” still carries weight.

New NFL Head Coaches and Their Unexpected Success

Every offseason, no matter the team sport, there are coaches fired and new ones hired.  The hope of these franchises is that these new leaders can put the team in a position to win games and be a successful organization on and off the field. But success is not always an automatic result with a new Head Coach. Some coaches are not right organizational or roster fit while others are not best prepared for the role they are undertaking.

During Week One of the 2015 NFL regular season we saw three new Head Coaches get wins in their first game who many expected to lose opening week. These men are looking to bring change in their new organizations and a winning culture back to franchises whose fan bases who feel like playoff success is a distant memory. Ironically, in an age of high powered offenses, all three of these head coaches come from defensive backgrounds.  I am speaking of Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn.  Let us dig a little deeper into each situation.

-Rex Ryan, Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have not been to the playoffs in over 15 years, since Doug Flutie had his career resurrected in northern New York.  The Bills have shuffled through multiple Quarterbacks and Head Coaches; they have been on the short end of multiple poor roster moves and draft choices for years. The Bills needed a head coach who was more than just a good qualified candidate. They needed a man who could change the culture in Buffalo.  In hiring Rex Ryan, the Bills gained a Head Coach who changed the attitudes and expectations of another franchise, a coach who has shown consistency as a defensive coach with great defenses.

In week one the Buffalo Bills won a game against a team led by one of the top five Quarterbacks in the NFL. They did not just win their game versus Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Bills executed well in all facets of offense and defense. With starting Quarterback Tyrod Taylor the Bills offense displayed a solid balance between running and passing attacks as Taylor was composed, leading the team on productive possessions over and over again.  On the defensive side, the team kept frustrating the Colts offense, putting them in difficult situations while pressuring the Quarterback multiple times.

The Bills have the opportunity to build on their week one success as they head into another tough matchup versus the Patriots. The positive is that it is another game being playing at home so they will have the crowd behind them.  Rex Ryan has captained teams to the playoffs before and this Bills team may be the most talented offense he has ever worked with.  As a defensive minded coach, Ryan takes the most pride in his defenses so we can expect the Bills to continue to execute each week and frustrate many offenses.

-Dan Quinn, Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons

Some people were surprised when Dan Quinn got the job with the Atlanta Falcons.  Not because he wasn’t a qualified or good candidate, but other “big names” were considered for the job. According to reports, Quinn was the Falcons number one choice because of the organization he was coming from. Quinn has spent four of the last six seasons on the Seattle Seahawks coaching staff, a franchise that has played in two straight Super Bowls and been a consistent winner for the last few years.

The Falcons have experienced sporadic success over the last 18 years with three trips to the NFC Championship game and a Super Bowl appearance. But this playoff success has not been consistent under the leadership of any previous head coaches. The Falcons win over the Philadelphia Eagles in week one of the season displayed something that has been missing from Atlanta for years: a defense that executes consistently.  With Quarterback Matt Ryan no one denies the Falcons ability to put up points offensively from week to week; it is the defense that has been left with the big question mark hanging over it. Slowing down a potent Eagles offense was a big step forward for the Falcons.

Maintaining playoff success is always predicated on a team’s ability to execute on both offense and defense. If the Falcons can maintain their level of play and even improve it as the season goes along, they could be playoff bound.  Dan Quinn knows what it takes for a team to be a successful franchise and he is incorporating that down in Atlanta.

-Todd Bowles, Head Coach of the New York Jets

This will be the fourth straight head coach the New York Jets have hired with a defensive background. Each coach has come with different strengths to the Jets, but Todd Bowles is different in the fact he already has some head coaching experience.

Todd has served as an interim Head Coach on two different occasions so he is familiar with the management responsibilities of the job.  In the Jets week one win, their defense was very good and the offense ran the ball efficiently. Some may say that has nothing to do with Bowles since these are “Rex Ryan’s players” and the Cleveland Browns were without their starting Quarterback for most of the game.

The truth is that Todd Bowles has changed the attitude of the Jets on and off the field.  Bowles has gotten both veterans and young players to buy into the team concept.  Under previous head coaches the team was coached by disciplinarians or coaches players liked so much they wanted to hang out with “the boss”. Todd does a great job of balancing between structure and discipline along with creating a positive environment and locker room players want to be in.

Having the right attitude for a team is more than just one or two aspects; it is more than just chemistry, coaching style, and organizational structure.  Success is bred from example and the one who sets that example is the leader. In the NFL the Head Coach sets the standard for the entire organization.  The Head Coach is the face of the team in front of the public and media. A Head Coach has to know how to handle players and put them in a position to be successful.

In week one of the 2015 NFL season we saw these three men bring out the best in their teams and put them in a position to win games. In Buffalo, we see Rex Ryan taking a defense with talented players and make them a cohesive unit that executes well from down to down.  Also, Ryan is a confidence builder who gave Tyrod Taylor the vote of confidence as the starting Quarterback. That confidence from the Head Coach allowed Taylor to have the repetitions in practice to be able to excel on game day and that confidence from the top filters down to the other players on the team.

In Atlanta, we saw a defense that was able to hold a high powered Eagles offensive in check for most of the game. That can be directly correlated with their Head Coach, Dan Quinn, who knew how to game plan against the Eagles in a way to put his team in a position to win the game. On paper, the Falcons defense looks average at best according to NFL standards. A good coach knows how to bring out the best in his team so they can perform at their best on game day. On Monday Night, Dan Quinn may have been more excited during the game at how his team played overall than anyone else.  That positive attitude is infectious and gives his players the confidence knowing this man is interested in them being successful.

With the Jets we saw a team with discipline that executed well on both sides of the ball.  This team played for each other, putting the interests of winning the game ahead of individual achievements. There are many talented players who are top tier at their position who went out of their way to use their experience and skills to better the team.  The Jets played as a cohesive unit and even when the coaches had to talk to players about mistakes, those players are receptive to instruction.

In life, the leadership sets the standards for those they work with and the NFL is no exception. Good coaches know how to uplift their players, put them in a position to do their best work and create a positive environment for success. Time will tell how Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn do in the long run, but week one is a positive sign of what the future holds for those coaches and their teams.

2015 NFL Preview: AFC East

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Patriots; 10/4 vs Giants; 11/12 at Jets; 11/29 @ Chiefs; 12/27 vs Cowboys

Synopsis: There’s a new culture in Buffalo under new Head Coach Rex Ryan.  Ryan brings energy and attitude lacking from recent previous head coaches.  We know that under Rex’s direction his team play good defenses and this year will be no different.  The Bills have a solid balance of young and veteran talent on the defensive side of the ball.  At worst this will be a top 12 defense in the NFL this season.

The biggest question marks revolve around the offense. Tyrod Taylor has been named the starting Quarterback for 2015 and this will be his first season in the NFL as a starting QB.  Also coming into the season there are injury concerns for All Pro Running Back LeSean McCoy with uncertainty exactly how his injury will affect his play during the season.  If the Bills offense plays up to their potential and the defense executes consistent, this is a potential playoff team.

Miami Dolphins

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+3/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Texans; 11/22 vs Cowboys; 11/29 @ Jets; 12/6 vs Ravens; 1/3 vs Patriots

Synopsis: In 2015 the Dolphins have the opportunity to take a step forward and contend for the playoffs.  The real key is the progression of whether Ryan Tannehill will make or break Miami’s season; if Tannehill will continue his development, you can expect a big season from the Dolphins.  The team has surrounded Tannehill with new weapons such as Wide Receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings along with former Pro Bowl Tight End Jordan Cameron.  

Looking at the Dolphins schedule they have the chance to start their season 6-0 thanks to several returning starters on defense.  As for any NFL team, so much is dependent on the play of their Quarterback this season and time will tell how much Tannehill has grown as a professional.

New England Patriots

2015 Projected Record: 12-4

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/20 @ Bills; 10/11 @ Cowboys; 10/18 @ Colts; 11/15 @ Giants; 11/29 @ Broncos; 12/6 vs Eagles

Synopsis: The defending Super Bowl champions have dealt with an offseason full of distractions thanks to “Deflate Gate”.  Now that saga has been put on the back burner, the team can get back to focusing on football with their starting Quarterback, Tom Brady.  They must now overcome injuries, suspensions, and players lea

ving via free agency to get back to the playoffs to defend their title.  Despite everything, this is still a talented team with a future Hall of Fame Quarterback (Tom Brady), the top Tight End in the NFL (Rob Gronkowski), one of the most dynamic Defensive Ends in the NFL (Chandler Jones), and one of the most consistent Kickers in the league (Steven Gostkowski).  A well-rounded team always has a great chance to make a playoff run and the Patriots are well-built for another Super Bowl run.

New York Jets

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Browns; 10/18 vs Redskins; 11/12 vs Bills; 12/6 @ Giants; 12/27 vs Patriots

Synopsis: Todd Bowles’ first season as Jets Head Coach does not look very promising.  Before the Bye Week the Jets have three tough games: Playing at the Colts (a perennial playoff team), home versus the Eagles (One of the top offenses in the NFL), and then go play the Dolphins in Miami (divisional rival).  Later in the year they have to play at New England, at Oakland, at Houston, and at Dallas; all tough matchups also.  

Their starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid player but he is not the type of player who has shown he can carry a team on his back.  The strength of the Jets will be their defense; the combination of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie as the starting Cornerbacks is one of the best combos in the NFL.  Also their front seven lead by dynamic Defensive Lineman Muhammed Wilkerson and rookie Leonard Williams will help keep games close for the Jets this season.  But in the end, that tough schedule may be too much for them to overcome.

Contrasting Football Philosophy on Quarterbacks: Rex Ryan vs. Andy Reid

In football there are some generic, objective truths like you need to score more points than the other team in order to win games, and turnovers are a negative on the team’s potential to win.  The wildest debates though, surround the subjective elements of the game, namely the reasoning behind different coaching philosophy.  The overwhelming reality is that any particular offensive or defensive scheme is not better than another. It is the execution by the team of the plays the coaches draw up that determine whether that strategy will actually work.  Some of the best football minds have never won a Super Bowl Championship as Head Coaches (Marv Levy, Bud Grant, Mike Martz) so Football intellect or philosophy does not equal championships.

For the sake of this discussion, I choose two head coaches who have had some playoff success, but never won a Super Bowl.  This way there is no ambiguity about who has the “best perspective”.  This discussion, again, is factoring in subjective viewpoints of a game that is dependent on eleven guys on a singular play executing their roles in order to gain any positive yards per snap of the football.  If the players cannot execute the game plan, it doesn’t matter how “smart” a coach may be.  Also, having a high Football IQ does not equal great communication skills; some coaches are great analysts on TV but they cannot translate that into sustained coaching success on the field.

Let’s first profile out two head coaches.

-Rex Ryan is a defensive minded Head Coach with a background as Baltimore Ravens Defensive Coordinator before being hired to be New York Jets Head Coach.  While in New York, he captained the ship of teams that went to two AFC Championship games, twice was 30 minutes away from a trip to the Super Bowl.   Now the Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills, Ryan has shown the ability to be a great defensive talent evaluator and has overseen teams with some of the top 15 Overall Defense and Running Offenses over his tenure as Head Coach.

-Andy Reid is an offensive minded Head Coach with a background as a former collegiate offensive lineman and Green Bay Packers Quarterbacks Coach before being hired by the Philadelphia Eagles to be Head Coach.  As Eagles Head Coach he oversaw his teams reach five NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl appearance.  Now the Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, Reid has shown the ability to maximize the abilities of his Quarterbacks and utilize multi-dimensional running backs to orchestrate his offenses.

We start with Rex Ryan’s QB philosophy because of how much his Bills’ starting Quarterback position battle has been publicized.  Over the years, Ryan has shown deference towards having a mobile Quarterback starting for his team.  His reasoning is twofold:

1. Ryan claims it is more difficult from a defensive coordinator’s perspective to prepare for a mobile Quarterback who has designed running and scrambling plays than for a QB who is less mobile and a stationary passer.  Ryan, a former Defensive Coordinator, has said numerous times he hated game planning for running Quarterbacks and that the unpredictability drove him “nuts” during the week leading up to the game.

2. Ryan also believes mobile Quarterbacks combined with an above average running attack puts the opposing defense in a precarious position because they over plan for the running game, leaving holes open for the passing offense.

Rex Ryan has already announced that Tyrod Taylor will get the start at Quarterback for the Bills’ next preseason game.  Taylor, a mobile QB with a solid throwing arm, is being giving the opportunity to take the starting job if he performs well over next couple preseason games.

Now let’s review Andy Reid’s QB philosophy.  Reid in his time as Head Coach in the NFL has only had one preseason in which he had players competing for the starting Quarterback position.  His starting QB in Kansas City is Alex Smith.  Reid’s philosophy is as follows:

1. Reid runs what is known as the “West Coast Offense”, original modern design from NFL Hall of Famer Bill Walsh. Reid’s version is using the passing attack to set up opportunities for his multi-dimensional running back.  He leans heavily on his Quarterback to read the opposing defense to find the open receiver; unlike other offenses that typically have a “Go-To” receiver on each play. His offense is designed with multiple safety valves for the Quarterback to throw to if his Wide Receivers are not immediately open.

2. Reid wants his Quarterbacks to operate from the pocket; if the QB does scramble Reid wants it to be for positive yards instead of scrambling around aimlessly.  In the past, Reid has preferred mobile Quarterbacks as his starters, but he wants to them operate from the traditional “pocket” behind the offensive line and only run as a last resort.  Also, the QB staying in behind the offensive line gives the running back a chance to slip out from behind the line of scrimmage and become a second safety valve for the quarterback in case no other receivers are open.  The longer the Quarterback stays set looking to pass, the more time the called play has to materialize.

Of Reid’s starting Quarterbacks in Philadelphia and Kansas City, five have been mobile (Donovan McNabb, Mike McMahon, Jeff Garcia, Michael Vick, and Alex Smith) so history shows Reid is not against having a mobile quarterback.  But instead of the QB functioning as an offensive weapon, Reid wants his starting Quarterback to be the Captain of the offense and orchestrate the plays as they are called on each down.

Two coaches with different backgrounds and philosophies that utilize the same type of Quarterbacks, both have made playoff runs, both have been fired from their previous jobs, both have changed the culture of the organization at both coaching stops.  So is one of them better than the other? No because both have flaws in their way of thinking, both have been inflexible and adversarial to changing their ways.

The reality is that while Ryan’s offensive philosophy makes a lot of Football sense, he lacks the discernment when judging offensive talent to properly construct the roster needed to execute that type of game plan on a consistent basis.   He also lacks the foresight to realize that certain players may not fit within a certain system or game plan.  Instead he tries to “fit square pegs into round holes” to use an old saying.

The biggest problem with Reid is that he is so committed to his offensive system, that even when he has a very talented running back, he still will pass the ball in situations when running the ball would have better odds of success.  Also, Reid is infamous for his overvaluing players with average or above average skills.  During his time in Philadelphia, he was always drafting and signing players who were specialists but lacked other skills to make them well rounded contributors to the team as a whole.  Or he would draft or sign free agents with above average all-around skills but lacked any special skills that allows the player an edge over opponents.

Lastly, both coaches are below average talent evaluators for players who play positions that are not the coach’s forte.  Reid has a history of passing over more talented players on draft day for those with specialized skill sets on defense; over time almost all of those picks came back to hurt the Eagles roster depth.  Meanwhile Ryan’s eye for offensive talent leaves something to be desired with the game plans his Jets put in place in comparison to those players drafted leaving many people questioning his long term goals.

In the long run, having a mobile Quarterback is not a “good” or “bad” idea; what is problematic is if that player is not utilized properly according to his skill set.  Rex Ryan wanted Tim Tebow to run the Wildcat Offense on random downs when Tebow excelled as a Triple-Threat Option Offense QB.  Andy Reid wanted Michael Vick to use the Passing Game to set up the running attack in Philadelphia when previously Vick had not been successful at reading defenses quickly. 

Legendary UCLA Basketball Coach John Wooden once stated “Great coaches build the system around their players; average coaches force players into their system.”  Reid and Ryan have garnered success in the NFL, but their stubbornness over the years has led to them to being fired from their previous jobs.  The mobile Quarterback is a great weapon in the NFL and has a history of winning Super Bowl titles (see Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Steve Young, and Roger Staubach as examples). But it still takes having the right talent around that QB, execution of the game plan, and the system in place bringing out the best in the leader of the offense in order to win in the NFL.  So whatever your offensive philosophical preferences, there are many more variables involved to having successful in the NFL than just if your Quarterback likes to run then throw or stay stationary then fire away.

Geno Smith's Injury May Best for New York Jets

On Tuesday, New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith got into an altercation in the locker room and suffered a broken jaw at the hands of now released IK Enemkpali.  Whatever the reasoning was behind the altercation, many Jets fans are panicking, to which I say, why?  Yes this is the third draft pick from 2013 to miss time this season (along with Defensive Lineman Sheldon Richardson and Cornerback Dee Milliner) but this is by no means a “loss” for the Jets franchise.  Note I used the term “franchise” and not “team”; I did that because this may be the best thing that could happen for the New York Jets.

While I feel some empathy for Geno Smith, the reality is that he has been a below average Quarterback in his time in the NFL and has not lived up to the hype given him coming out of the University of West Virginia.  In my eyes, I never understood the hype for a guy with average arm talent, above average athleticism and average Football IQ.  Furthermore, the Jets organization has not shown real faith in Smith’s abilities to be the starting QB when they brought in Michael Vick to compete for the starting job last season and then in the 2015 NFL Draft selecting University of Baylor QB Bryce Petty.  Smith has not shown the ability on or off the field to validate his standing as the Jets starting Quarterback.

Let’s go even deeper by highlighting why this is good for the New York Jets that Smith will miss 6-10 weeks with this injury:

1. Your Starting Quarterback is now Ryan Fitzpatrick

Some Jets fan may forget who Ryan Fitzpatrick is and I understand that, since Fitzpatrick is not a household name among many sports fans.  Fitzpatrick has started 89 games from 2005 through 2014 in the NFL, amassing 19,273 passing yards, 123 passing Touchdowns, and a completion percentage of 60.2%.  On top of that, for his career against the Jets (most of these stats he compiled as starter for Buffalo Bills) he has thrown for 1,477 yards along with 12 Touchdowns and 7 interceptions.  In comparison, Geno Smith in two seasons has a career completion percentage of 57.5% and thrown 25 touchdowns versus 34 interceptions.  If we go solely by the numbers, one would choose Fitzpatrick over Smith to start at Quarterback.

If we dig even deeper, one will find that Fitzpatrick is a graduate of Harvard University and scored one of the highest scores in the NFL Combine IQ Exam, The Wonderlic Test.  Fitzpatrick is more than capable of being a starting NFL Quarterback and is better suited for the role than Smith.

2. Your Quarterback of the future is Bryce Petty, not Geno Smith

Petty, who was drafted by the Jets this year, has a higher potential ceiling than Smith.  Petty who played at Baylor University, has a great arm, good Football IQ, and is an above average athlete.  Yes he comes from a spread offense and still needs time to learn how to read NFL style defenses, but it is better he learn this while watching Fitzpatrick play than Smith stumble along.  Petty has garnered comparisons by scouts to Tommy Maddox; many people forget how talented Maddox was before injuries derailed his career.  If that scout’s analogy lays true then Petty has a bright future in the NFL and that is good news for the New York Jets and their fans.

3. Allows the Jets an out to not bring back Smith after 2015

The New York Jets have a Déjà vu situation on their hands with Smith missing at least half the season with this injury.  In 2013 when Mark Sanchez was out for the season due to a shoulder injury, the Jets were able to give newly drafted Geno Smith extended playing time, opening the door for them to have an excuse to not bring back Sanchez and move forward with their new future Quarterback, who at that time was Smith.  Sanchez was able to exit New York and landed in Philadelphia, allowing the Jets to fully invest in Smith as the future of the franchise without the previous first round draft pick Sanchez lurking in the wings.

Fast forward to 2015, with Smith’s mediocre two seasons in a Jets uniform as indication of a probable failed investment, this latest incident gives the Jets opportunity to move forward without the burden of another season with the cloud of Geno Smith’s unreached potential hanging over the organization.  Smith has not been the Quarterback on the field or leader of the field the Jets need and there is no better time than the present for them to start planning for a future without him on their roster.

2013 NFL Draft Review: AFC East

Now that the NFL Draft is over and the dust has settled, it is time to look back at who what drafted and how each team is affected.  Today I review the teams from the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills

Good Picks: EJ Manuel (QB – 1^st), Robert Woods (WR – 2^nd), Kiko Alonso (LB – 2^nd), Marquise Goodwin (WR – 3^rd), Dustin Hopkins (K – 6^th)

Questionable Picks: Duke Williams (S – 4^th), Jonathan Meeks (S – 5^th), Chris Gragg (TE – 7^th)

Grade: B

Review: Under new Head Coach Doug Marrone, the Bills are looking to rebuild and they took steps towards being a better team in 2013.  Woods and Goodwin are both talented yet underrated Wide Receivers while Alonso is a good Linebacker in pass coverage.  Picking Manuel in the 1^st round may have been a reach for Buffalo but Manuel was considered one of the top Quarterbacks available in this year’s draft and he can be a good NFL starter.  Both Williams and Meeks are safeties who lack real good Play Recognition skills but they can contribute on special teams.  Hopkins is one of the top Kickers coming out of college this year.

 

Miami Dolphins

Good Picks: Dion Jordan (OLB – 1^st), Jamar Taylor (CB – 2^nd), Will Davis (CB – 3^RD), Jelani Jenkins (LB – 4^th), Mike Gillislee (RB – 5^th), Caleb Sturgis (K – 6^th)
Questionable Picks: Dallas Thomas (OG – 3^rd), Dion Sims (TE – 4^th), Don Jones (S – 7^th)

Grade: B+

Review: Miami has continued a trend this offseason of re-tooling their defense.  Jordan is one of the top pass rushers in this years draft and Miami sees him as being able to pair up with Cameron Wake the way Von Miller did in Denver with Elvis Dummervill.  Taylor and Davis are both talented Corner Backs who have fluid hips, good football instincts and are solid tacklers.  Jenkins is an underrated Linebacker who seems to be in on almost every play and he had very good “football speed” and closes in on the ball carrier quickly.  Gillislee can be a “poor man’s version” of Reggie Bush for the Dolphins this season.  Thomas is a good teammate and works hard but his blocking footwork leaves something to desired while he struggles to create good leverage in pass protection.  Sims is a Tight End who average hands and average blocking skills but is an above average athlete so he does have potential to develop.  I would have given the Dolphins a higher grade if they would have done more to address their biggest need: Offensive Line talent and depth.


New England Patriots

Good Picks: Jamie Collins (OLB – 2^nd), Aaron Dobson (WR – 2^nd), Logan Ryan (CB – 3^rd), Josh Boyce (WR – 4^th)

Questionable Picks: Duron Harmon (S – 3^rd), Michael Buchanan (DE – 7^th), Steve Beauharnais (LB – 7^th)

Grade: C+

Review: The Patroits in past years have gotten good value in the mid to late rounds of the NFL draft but this year they made some interesting picks to say the least.  Collins is a good pass rusher but he is still alittle raw with his tackling technique.  Dobson is the perfect Wide Receiver for the Patriots offense, he can play in the slot and on the outside due to his speed and great hands.  Ryan is a Corner Back with good football instincts, can play man or zone coverage and is a solid tackler.  Boyce is one the best slot receivers in this draft class, he has good hands and great burst off the line of scrimmage.  Both Harmon and Beauharnais are defenders who average football speed and they take awkward angles when trying to track down the ball carrier.  They may be best suited for special teams work.  Buchanan showed flashes that he could be good in college but he struggled at times against team with very good offensive lines like Wisconsin and Ohio State.

 

New York Jets

Good Picks: Dee Milliner (CB – 1^st), Geno Smith (QB – 2^nd), Brian Winters (OG – 3^rd), Tommy Bohanon (FB – 7^th)

Questionable Picks: Sheldon Richardson (DT – 1^st), Oday Aboushi (OG – 5^th), William Campbell (OG – 6^th)

Grade: C+

 

Review: With new GM John Idzik the Jets are changing personnel to fit his vision for the team.  Dee Milliner is the best Corner Back in this draft class.  Milliner has excellent football instincts, can play man defense against any receiver in the league and he is a very good tackler.  Smith is one the top Quarterback prospects in this draft and he is the Jets new QB of the future.  Brian Winters is a phenomenal athlete for a offensive line, he has good agility, great strength, good footwork and has the potential to be a Pro Bowl Guard in the NFL if he works hard enough.  Sheldon Richardson is a head scratching selection because he is best suited as a Defensive Tackle in a 4-3 defensive system, not the defense the Jets run.  While Richardson has good potential in college he did not play well or consistent against elite competition in the SEC.  Aboushi and Campbell are offensive lineman with average strength and had trouble defending the pass, especially when they had to make quick decisions aginst heavy-side blitz packages.  Tommy Bohanon is one the best all-around Fullbacks to be drafted in years.  Bohanon is a great run block with excellent strength and leverage; he also is quick and can be an asset in the passing game.

My 2013 Mock NFL Draft

With the NFL Draft coming up this week, I wanted to preview the draft by performing my own 2013 NFL “Mock” Draft.  Unlike the guys you see on the major sports networks, my mock draft is not who I think each team will draft but who I think they should draft, according to need and how I rank/value each prospect is accordance with that particular team and their system.  So here is my selections and why
 

1.  Kansas City Chiefs: OT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M)

With the Chiefs opening the door for OT Brandon Albert to leave for Miami, they have an opening at Left Tackle.  Joeckel is the most NFL-ready Offensive Lineman in this year’s draft.  His footwork and blocking skills are top notch and he will only get better because how hard he works and studies. 
 

2. Jacksonville Jaguars:  DT Shariff Floyd (Florida)

New Head Coach Gus Johnson has a defense that works best with versatile players.  Floyd is a freak athlete who can line up on the defensive line as a Defensive Tackle, Nose Tackle or 3-4 Defensive End.  Floyd’s experience playing in the SEC also makes him an NFL ready starter who doesn’t need a lot of polishing while he also has a high ceiling talent-wise.
 

3. Oakland Raiders: OT Eric Fisher (Central Michigan)

The Raiders lack depth on their offensive line and with the acquisition of Matt Flynn to play Quarterback it would help if they invested in keeping their new QB’s protection.  Fisher is a talented but raw offensive tackle who has unique combination of strength and athletic ability.  For a team in “rebuilding mode” you have the luxury of being able to select a player with great potential who needs to refine their skills and Fisher fits that mold.
 

4.  Philadelphia Eagles: DT Star Lotuleilei (Utah)

Chip Kelly has brought a lot of change already to the Philadelphia Eagles and one of those changes is defense scheme.  A “hybrid” 3-4 requires having defensive lineman who can handle taking on offensive guards and centers.  Lotuleilei was a great defensive lineman at the collegiate level whose skills are comparable to Haloti Ngata of the Baltimore Ravens: Excellent strength, suprising speed and agility, and excellent pursuit to the ball. 
 

5. Detroit Lions: CB Dee Milliner (Alabama)

The Lions had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year and they play in a division where they have to face Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler twice a year.  Milliner is the top defensive back in this year’s draft.  He is a great man coverage cornerback who is a good tackler and has very good instincts.  He could start right away for the Lions to start the 2013 season.
 

6. Cleveland Browns: OG Chance Warmack (Alabama)

While the Browns are unsure who will be their starting Quarterback for the 2013 season, one thing for sure is they need help protecting their QB.  Warmack is an NFL ready Guard who has great strength, good footwork and top level experience while playing for the National Champion University of Alabama.  Warmack can do more than protect a QB, he is also a great run blocker.
 

7. Arizona Cardinals: S Kenny Vaccaro (Texas)

With the Cardinals releasing Pro Bowl Safety Adrian Wilson, so to say the Cardinals have a need at the safety position is definitely an understatement.  Vaccaro is a talented safety with very good ball skills and has great football instincts.  Some have compared his style of play to Ed Reed.
 

8. Buffalo Bills: QB Ryan Nassib (Syracuse)

New Bills Head Coach Doug Marrone is known as a great offensive minded coach and for coaches like him they need a Quarterback who can run their offense.  Well there is no better option than to draft the last player who ran your offense.  Nassib broke Syracuse records while under the guidance of Marrone.  Nassib has good arm strength, great at looking off defenders, good athlete and knows Marrone’s system and expectation.  Just like how Ryan Tannehill had success in Miami with his old college coach I think Buffalo can have the same, if not better success, by selecting Nassib.
 

9. New York Jets: OLB Dion Jordan (Oregon)

The Jets need a pass rusher.  The Jets need Outside Linebackers who can play in Rex Ryan’s 3-4 defense.  Jordan fits both of those needs for the Jets.  Jordan is one of the top athletes and top defensive talents in this year’s draft.  His skill set reminds me of DeMarcus Ware although he might be quicker than Ware.
 

10. Tennessee Titans: OT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma)

Titans Head Coach Mike Munchack was a long time offensive line coach before become a head coach and Johnson is the type of player with great potential who needs work on his raw abilities.  Muchack has always liked to develop Offensive line and with a guy like Johnson who is versatile, very good Football IQ and open to be coached up, this selection is a perfect match for team and player.
 

11. San Diego Chargers: OG Jonathan Cooper (North Carolina)

Philip Rivers is among the top ten QB’s in the NFL but he does his team no good if he doesn’t have protection.  The Chargers had numerous injuries to their offensive line last season and need depth.  Cooper is an offensive guard with good leverage, great blocking footwork and has the potential to be a 10 year starter in the NFL. 
 

12. Miami Dolphins: TE Tyler Eifert (Norte Dame)

Coming into his second season as a starting NFL Quarterback, Ryan Tannehill needs offensive weapons.  While he already has a deep threat receiver (Mike Wallace) and a position receiver (Brad Hartline) the Dolphins are lacking a talented receiving Tight End.  Eifert is a prototype TE for today’s NFL.  He has good speed and great hands for a TE while also has good football instincts to get open for his QB.  Eifert would fit right into the offensive system the Dolphins have.
 

13. New York Jets: WR Tavon Austin (West Virginia)

The biggest, most glaring weakness of the Jets offensive from last season: no big time playmakers.  Tavon Austin is the most explosive offensive player in this year’s draft.  He has good hands, great speed, excellent agility, and could start game one as a slot receiver for the Jets in 2013.  Austin can also be a return specialist on kick offs and punts since he is always a threat to score with the ball in his hands.
 

14. Carolina Panthers: DE Barkevious Mingo (LSU)

Since losing Julius Peppers to free agency a few years ago, the Panthers have had trouble with their pass rusher and ceiling off the edges on wide running plays.  Mingo is an excellent athlete who has good ball pursuit skills.  If he is utilized correctly he can be a disruptive force on defense and draw double teams that will allow his teammates to make more plays.
 

15. New Orleans Saints: DE Bjoern Werner (Florida State)

New Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan runs a defensive 3-4 scheme that relies on the guys upfront to put pressure on the opposing Quarterback and create havoc in the backfield on running plays.  Werner is a unique football talent who has great strength, good agility and quickness and has a knack for being a menace for opposing quarterbacks.  Even though he has only been playing organized football for a few years he is open to being coached and has the potential to be a Pro Bowl caliber player.
 

16. St. Louis Rams: DT Sheldon Richardson (Missouri)

The Rams have a lot of talent and depth at multiple defensive positions except D-Tackle.  Richardson is a good tackler with great agility and footwork.  His biggest weakness in college was that he was the best defensive lineman on his team and opponents would game plan to shut him down.  With very talented defensive ends on the Rams, opponents will not be able to focus solely on Richardson anymore, opening the door for him to excel in the NFL.
 

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: ILB Alec Ogletree (Georgia)

Steelers are in need of youth on defense, especially at linebacker.  Ogletree is one of the top inside linebackers in this year’s draft.  He is a great tackler with excellent football instincts and has great pursuit.  He will fit in great with the Steelers and in short time could be their top linebacker and lead the team in tackles.
 

18. Dallas Cowboys: S Matt Elam (Florida)

New Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffin runs a Cover 2 defense.  That type of defense thrives when it has talented defensive backs in the secondary.  Safety is a position that is thin for the Cowboys.  Elam has a nose for the ball, whether as a ball-hawk as a pass defender or a land-shark as a run stopper, Elam can do it all.  He is an excellent athlete with great instincts and would be a great fit for the Cowboys.
 

19. New York Giants: LB Jarvis Jones (Georgia)

Due to the injury bug the Giants lacked playmakers on defense.  Jones is one of the top defensive players in this year’s draft.  He is a dynamic athlete with a nose for the ball.  He is a great tackler, has good instincts, and is excellent in pursuit.  He can stop the run and blitz the opposing QB.  Jones will not be expected to start immediately so there will be no major pressure on him which will allow him to excel even more in the NFL.
 

20. Chicago Bears: OG Kyle Long (Oregon)

A glaring weakness for the Bears in the couple seasons has been their offensive line.  While the team has upgraded the Tackle position through free agency they still need depth at Guard.  Long is a versatile OG with great footwork and was one of the top Guards in the Pac-12 the last couple seasons.  He would provide much need depth for the offensive line and if he has a good training camp could be in line to be a start week one of the 2013 season.
 

21. Cincinnati Bengals: OT DJ Fluker (Alabama)

The Bengals do not have any major areas they need to fill in the short term.  In the long term they need depth for the future on the Offensive Line.  Drafting Andre Smith in 2009 did not work out for the Bengals.  Fluker is different than Smith in that he has a better work ethic and better footwork than Smith.  Fluker is underrated as an offensive lineman in a draft that has many O-Line prospects.  Fluker will be a good addition to the Bengals, providing depth to a team that is trying to get back to the playoffs for a third straight season. 
 

22. St. Louis Rams: WR Robert Woods (USC)

With the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson via free agency, the Rams need to replace their top two wide receivers from last season.  Woods is the best all-around WR in this year’s draft and he is also the most NFL ready since he played in a pro-style system at USC.  Woods is a great route runner who has great hands and underrated speed.  He could be a starter for the Rams week one of the 2013 season.
 

23. Minnesota Vikings: CB Desmond Trufant (Washington)

In a division where the Vikings have to deal with a plethora of super talented wide receivers such as Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson and more, the Vikings need more talent in their secondary.  Trufant is a talented Cornerback who has fluid hips, very good speed and is great at defending the deep pass.  In order to make the playoffs this season the Vikings are going to need more from their defense and Trufant will help them at least slow down their opponents.
 

24. Indianapolis Colts: DT JesseWilliams (Alabama)

The defensive tackle has been weak point for the Colts for over a decade.  They were able to hide their lack of depth this past season when they changed to a “hybrid 3-4” defense.  But it is time for the Colts to address this need with a play who can play either Nose Tackle or Defensive Tackle.   Williams is underrated in this year’s draft because he wasn’t a “star” at the combine or at any of the collegiate “all-star” bowls.  But Williams has the track record from his time playing at Alabama as one of the top defensive tackles in the SEC.  He has very good strength and is great at recognizing a play and reacting to it.  His football IQ is high so he can have an impact for the Colts in the 2013 season as a rookie.
 

25. Minnesota Vikings: WR Cordarrelle Patterson (Tennessee)

With the loss of Percy Harvin, the Vikings need a dynamic playmaker on offense and special teams.  Patterson is the perfect replacement for the Vikings.  His great speed, agility in space and knack for getting open Patterson would be a great compliment on offense to Adrian Peterson and Greg Jennings.
 

26. Green Bay Packers: DT Akeem Spence (Illinois)

While the Packers do not have any major needs they could use more depth on the defensive line.  Spence is listed as a Defensive Tackle but he can play all three positions on the D-Line in a 3-4 defense.  Aside from his versatility Spence is good at shedding blocks and batting down passes along with stopping the run.  He also plays well next to talented lineman; he played next to current San Diego Chargers starter Corey Liugett in college.
 

27. Houston Texans: WR DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson)

With the recent injury history of star Wide Receiver Andre Johnson the Texans need more talent and depth at receiver.  Hopkins is a dynamic playmaker on offense with very good speed, great hands, and excellent leaping ability.  He caught 18 touchdowns this past season so he knows how to score.  He would be a great weapon for QB Matt Schaub.
 

28. Denver Broncos: DE Ezekiel Ansah (Brigham Young)

The Broncos are a team set at almost every position so they have the ability to pick the best player available.  Ansah is a unique talent who played Defensive End in college but may be converted to an Outside Linebacker in the NFL.  Head Coach John Fox has a history of finding roles for talented players who may not have a specific position but can make an impact on the field.  Ansah is still raw but he is very athletic and can tackle.
 

29. New England Patriots: WR Terrance Williams (Baylor)

The Patriots are lacking depth and experience at Wide Receiver.  They need someone who has starting WR experience who can play both out wide and in the slot.  Williams is a great route runner with good hands and excellent change of direction speed.  He is a tall receiver compared to some of the receivers the Patriots have had over the years (i.e. Welker, Edelman, Stallworth, etc) so he is a unique fit for the Patriots offensive scheme.
 

30. Atlanta Falcons: CB Jamar Taylor (Boise State)

The Falcons biggest weakness is in their secondary and they need more depth at Cornerback.  Taylor is an underrated CB who has very good play recognition skills, excels in man-to-man coverage, and has the speed and quickness to keep up with most wide receivers in the NFL.  His years of experience as a starter in college also shows he has real-time game experience and has seen many different types of offensive schemes.
 

31. San Francisco 49ers: DT Jonathan Jenkins (Georgia)

Needing to add depth on their defensive line, you have to sign and draft the right types of defensive line who can play and excel in a 3-4 defense.  Jenkins is perfect for the 49ers as a Nose and Defensive Tackle.  He is surprisingly athletic and quick for a guy listed at 345 pounds.  He is a good tackler and can shed blocks on run defense while on passing downs he can deflect passes and take on multiple blockers opening up holes for his teammates to get to the opposing Quarterback.  Jenkins would be a good fit for the 49ers.
 

32. Baltimore Ravens: LB Kiko Alonso (Oregon)

With the retirement of Ray Lewis and Darnell Ellerbe leaving via free agency the Ravens need to fill depth at inside linebacker.  The NFL has become a passing league where speed and athleticism is as important on defense as play recognition skills and tackling ability.  Alonso fits those needs as he is one of the top ILB in this year’s draft against the pass while also being a very good tackler.  Alonso also has experience playing in a “hybrid 3-4” defense so he is use to lining up in different ways on defense.  Also, the Ravens are looking for “character” guys and Alonso is known as a good leader in the locker room