Showing posts with label Pittsburgh Steelers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pittsburgh Steelers. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Top 4 Takeaway Thoughts after NFL Week 4 Games

With the first quarter of the 2015 NFL season in the books, here are some of my takeaway thoughts after Week 4:


1. Too many Mediocre Kickers in the NFL.

The bizarre trend started on Thursday night when Josh Scobee of the Pittsburgh Steelers missed two Field Goals at the end of the game, allowing the Baltimore Ravens chances to tie and win the game.  Twenty-four hours later, the Steelers released Scobee and signed Chris Boswell to be their new Kicker.

 On Sunday the Philadelphia Eagles had Caleb Sturgis as their Kicker with Cody Parkey out for the season with a groin injury; Sturgis went on to miss a field goal attempt and an extra point attempt. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kicker Kyle Brindza went 1 for 3 on Field Goal attempts this past Sunday AND missed an extra point; he is only hitting on 50 percent of his field goals in 2015.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had two opportunities to win their game versus the Colts on Sunday, but their Kicker Jason Myers missed both Field Goal attempts.

On the flip side veterans of over ten plus years in the league Adam Vinateri, Robbie Gould and Sebastian Janikowski are consistent every year, averaging over 80 percent accuracy for their careers.  Also Atlanta Falcons have Matt Bryant and the Baltimore Ravens have Justin Tucker, both reliable kickers their teams know they can depend on.  Furthermore the Denver Broncos Brandon McManus is the team’s third full time place Kicker in the last ten years, all three of those kickers have a career average of over 70 percent accuracy.

The truth is that with the way the game is played in the NFL in 2015 Kickers are under-valued and teams are not doing a good enough job at evaluating talent or preparing their Kickers for Game Day.  The Steelers, Eagles, and Jaguars all lost on Sunday no thanks to their Kickers but none of these teams learned from the history of these players.  I always find it ironic when teams assume a guy will play different for their team because of the player’s “talent”.  With so many kickers in the NFL missing extra points and field goals, it is becoming ugly and teams need to do a better job at scouting along with development of their Kickers.


2. Devonta Freeman has “Wally Pip’ed” Tevin Coleman in Atlanta.

Coming into the 2015 season there was a battle in training camp for the Atlanta Falcons starting Running Back position.  Devonta Freeman coming into his 2nd season after being drafted out of Florida State put up lackluster performances during the Pre-season leading to Rookie RB Tevin Coleman being named the starter.  But Coleman got injured opening the door for Freeman to get an opportunity to start the last two weeks.  Freeman has scored three rushing touchdowns in each game and compiled 342 Total Yards from scrimmage in two games.

Hall of Fame Yankees First Baseman Lou Gehrig was a “nobody” until starting First Baseman Wally Pipp took a day off due to a “migraine headache”. Gehrig would then go on to start 2,130 games in a row for the Yankees.   While I am not saying Devonta Freeman will be a Hall of Fame Running Back, I think it is fair to assume that Freeman has a strangle hold on the starting Running back position in Atlanta.  Coleman is a rookie, he is going to have to wait his turn when he returns from injury as that starting position is no longer exclusively his anymore.


3. The Eagles and Dolphins are a mess for a good reason.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins are 1-3 after Week Four of the 2015 NFL season for a good reason.  Neither team has learned from the past.  Both teams have been down this path before, having an offseason of big talent acquisitions then start the season playing underwhelming football.  The reality is, that building a team through free agency and trades rarely equals success.  You cannot buy wins and championships in the NFL.  If you could then the Washington Redskins would be a dynasty by now.

The Eagles have tried to build a team by unloading most of the players from the previous head coach and bringing in players Chip Kelly believes are good fit for his program.  But instead of building a team, he is trying to “plug and play” players as parts in a machine.  The Eagles have made the mistake, like many before, of overlooking the fundamentals of the game in order to be on the “cutting edge”.  The Eagles have seemingly regressed the last couple years as their Head Coach has unloaded talent and not replaced them with comparable skill players.  Spending a lot of money does not equal wins; it just means Byron Maxwell and Demarco Murray got paid for past performances.

The Dolphins have had roster turnover every year since Head Coach Joe Philbin arrived in Miami.  Instead of building a team around Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins have been swapping in and out players like pieces of a jig-saw puzzle looking for the “right combination”.  They dish out big money for Defensive Lineman Ndamukong Suh but they let reliable players such as Wide receiver Brian Hartline and Defensive Lineman Jared Odrick leave.  The team has played underwhelming on offense and defense in 2015.

I have said this numerous times: teams cannot buy championships or fabricate chemistry.  No team in NFL history has ever had great success with this formula yet the Dolphins and Eagles insist that it can work.  I remember someone asked about the arrogance of Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly and ineptitude of Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin in recent weeks; it appears both adjectives might be true looking at how 2015 has played out.


4. The Broncos, Panthers and Packers are undefeated in 2015 thanks to defense.

We have been inundated by the media for years about how a team needs a “franchise Quarterback” in order to win in the NFL.  Quarterback is one of the most important position in all of sports, I do not disagree, but Football is still a team sport and the unit must work together in order to win.  While Peyton Manning is a future Hall of Famer, Cam Newton is one of the most talented players in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the top Quarterback in the NFL, all of these teams are winning games thanks to the efforts of their defenses.

The Packers and Panthers defenses have only allowed a total of 71 points against in 4 games this season, an average of 17.8 points per game against.  Meanwhile the Broncos have allowed only 69 points against, an average of 17.3 points per game against.  These three teams are among the top defenses in the NFL in 2015 and after the first quarter of the season they deserve recognition.  Peyton Manning has looked subpar based on his own standards, Cam Newton has a below average group of receivers, and Aaron Rodgers has injuries to his Wide Receivers.  These Pro Bowl Quarterbacks can thank their defenses for coming to their aid to help their teams win games.


By the way, do you know the team that has allowed the least number of points against so far in 2015? The New York Jets with a 3-1 win-loss record have allowed a total of 55 points against, an average in 4 games of 13.8 points per game against.  In the era of high powered offenses and Quarterbacks getting paid multi-million dollar contracts, the old adage of “Defense wins championships” still carries weight.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: AFC North

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.


Here is my preview of the AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens
2015 Projected Record: 11-5
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Broncos; 11/1 @ Steelers; 10/26 @ Cardinals; 11/22 vs Rams; 12/6 @ Dolphins; 12/13 vs Seahawks; 1/3 @ Bengals

Synopsis: 2015 will mark another season where the Baltimore Ravens will have one of the most talented defense teams in the NFL. Headlined by Linebackers Terrell Suggs, CJ Moseley, Darryl Smith, Courtney Upshaw and Elvis Dummervill, the Ravens are filled with dynamic playmakers at many positions.  The question mark is their offense where they have to replace three starters from last year’s team who were major contributors.  What also does not help is that their Pro Bowl Tight End Dennis Pitta starts the season on the Physically Unable to Perform Injury List. With a talented defense, the pressure will be on the offense to produce to alleviate pressure off the defense. 


Cincinnati Bengals
2015 Projected Record: 9-7
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Raiders; 9/27 @ Ravens; 10/11 vs Seahawks; 11/1 @ Steelers; 11/22 @ Cardinals; 11/29 vs Rams; 12/28 @ Broncos

Synopsis: The Cincinnati Bengals have been the most underachieving team in terms of lacking playoff success over the last few years.  With a very good defensive unit loaded with great players and an offense with multiple dynamic players, expectations are again high for the Bengals.  Yet the question still lingers if this team can maintain success and avoid inconsistent play.  Will Andy Dalton progress as a Quarterback and avoid costly turnovers? Can AJ Green take that next step to have his talent match his play on the field week to week? Can the defense step up in the fourth quarter and shut down opposing offenses charging downfield?
Don’t be surprised if the Bengals get tripped up and lose away matchups in Oakland and Buffalo because they underestimate their competition.  Also, playing at home versus the Chargers, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams doesn’t make their schedule any easier to overcome.  If the Bengals make the playoffs in 2015, it is because they truly earned it surviving a tough schedule.


Cleveland Browns
2015 Projected Record: 4-12
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Raiders; 10/25 @ Rams; 12/13 vs 49ers; 12/27 @ Chiefs

Synopsis: The projections for the 2015 Cleveland Browns have less to do with their roster as it does with their tough overall schedule. Outside of the fact that all three of their divisional rivals are potential playoff contenders, the Browns have to play away against three of the top 15 defenses in the NFL (Jets, Rams, and Seahawks) along with playing three of the top offenses (at Chiefs, at Chargers, and home versus Broncos).
The Browns have talent on both sides of the ball: arguably the top Offensive Tackle in the NFL (Joe Thomas), Pro Bowl Cornerback (Joe Haden), along with a talented cast of Wide Receivers (Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline, and Travis Benjamin).  They will surprise a couple of opponents and earn some upset victories as underdogs.  I just don’t know if they can do it often enough to make 2015 a winning season.


Pittsburgh Steelers
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/27 @ Rams; 10/18 vs Cardinals; 10/25 @ Chiefs; 11/29 @ Seahawks; 12/6 vs Colts; 12/20 vs Broncos


Synopsis: The Pittsburgh Steelers start the 2015 season without three important offensive players. Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant are both serving NFL suspensions while Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey suffered a serious injury during a pre-season game.  If the Steelers do not play well, they could start the season 2-4 which would put them behind the eight ball in their push to make it to the playoffs.  Also they have to handle a brutal second half schedule after their Bye Week with five of their final six games versus potential playoff teams and three of those matchups (the Seahawks, Bengals and Ravens) are away games. Then don’t overlook tough home matchups with the Colts and Broncos, two high powered offenses.  Without a good start to their season, the Steelers may have too much to overcome to make it to the 2015 playoffs.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

2014 NFL Projections: AFC Edition


This is my 17th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has a team in gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL; I only projected 3 of those 11.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

So first here are my AFC projections and notes for each AFC team, division, followed by playoff projections and conference winner.

 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Projected Record: 4-12

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -2

Swing Game(s): Sept 14th at home vs Miami; Oct 19th at home vs Minnesota; Nov 9 at home vs Kansas City; Dec 21 at Oakland

Notes: Overall the Bills have a tough schedule, playing road games at Chicago, at Detroit, and at Denver.  Also expect  interdivision matchups with the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets to be hard fought but seeing the Bills finish the season with a losing interdivision record.  A lot of young talent that still needs time to gain experience and chemistry is what the roster is filled with.

 

Miami Dolphins

Projected Record: 7-9

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -2

Swing Game(s): Sept 14th at Buffalo; Oct 12th at home vs Green Bay; Nov 2 at home vs San Diego; Dec 7th at home vs Baltimore

Notes: Expect Ryan Tannehill to make positive strides in his third season as the Dolphins starting Quarterback with the arrival of Knoeshawn Moreno, a major upgrade at the running back position.  Last season Miami had the 26th ranked rushing offense; with Moreno and a more cohesive offensive line unit that should improve. The biggest stumbling block for Miami is their bye week comes early in the season (Week 5) and immediately following that five of their next eight games scheduled are road games.  Not an easy task, especially at Denver, at Detroit, at Chicago and at the Jets in December.

 

New England Patriots

Projected Record: 12-4

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -4

Swing Game(s): Sept 29th at Kansas City; Oct 26 at home vs Chicago; Nov 2nd at home vs Denver; Dec 7th at San Diego

Notes: The Patriots have a rollercoaster schedule in 2014.  Four of their six games to start the season are on the road then after their Bye Week (Week 10) the play four straight games against teams with Pro Bowl Quarterbacks (Colts, Lions, Packers, Chargers).  Although I think the Patriots will have a good overall season they will be battle tested playing against all four NFC North teams. 

 

New York Jets

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 22nd at home vs Chicago; Sept 28th at home vs Detroit; Nov 23rd at Buffalo; Dec 7th at Minnesota; Dec 14th at Tennessee

Notes: The Jets have two major question marks coming into the 2014 season: Will they have quality Quarterback play and the health/depth at the Cornerback position.  From September 14th through October 16th they face off against six of the top ten passing offenses from 2013; a dubious task for a team with little depth at cornerback.  Furthermore, can the Jets offense keep up with these high powered offenses?  How long will Gino Smith stay the starting Quarterback if he commits too many turnovers? Can the Jets pass defense force any turnovers without any ball-hawk cornerbacks? 

 

Projected AFC East Winner: New England Patriots

 

AFC South

 
Houston Texans

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 14th at Oakland; Sept 21st at the Giants; Oct 5th at Dallas; Nov 16th at Cleveland; Nov 23rd at home vs Cincinnati

 Notes: The Texans are a talented team but are underwhelming at the Quarterback position.  Having to play four games against the AFC North will definitely test their offense’s ability to score consistently enough to win games.  They only play four high powered offensive teams on their schedules so they are fortunate that they will not be subjected to many potential shootouts.  Expect the Texans to win half of their games thanks to the defense’s ferocity. 

 

Indianapolis Colts

Projected Record: 10-6

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 15th at home vs Philadelphia; Sept 21st at Jacksonville; Oct 9th at Houston; Nov 16th at home vs New England; Dec 21st at Dallas

Notes: Let’s be realistic, without Andrew Luck this team is potentially 3-13 in 2014 considering the teams they have to play.  Their first two games are against two of the top offenses in the NFL, then their two games before the bye week they are on the road to play two teams with Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks.  But wait, it gets better; after the Bye Week (Week 10) they get to play the Patriots and Week 16 they get to go to Dallas.  The only “good news” for the Colts season is that the teams they have to play on the road have a combined losing record in 2013.  So maybe they are “Lucky”.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 21 at home vs Indianapolis; Oct 12th at Tennessee; Oct 26th at home vs Miami; Nov 9th at home vs Dallas; Dec 18th at home vs Tennessee

Notes: The Jaguars are better team then last year, that’s the good news.  The bad news is they have to play many other teams that have upgraded their rosters as well.  The Jaguars will play every team tough, although they do not have the offensive firepower of their opponents, their defense is better than last season’s statistics show.  Head Coach Gus Bradley is building a competitive team that in a couple years could develop into a contender.

 

Tennessee Titans

Projected Record: 5-11

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 14th at home vs Dallas; Oct 12th at home vs Jacksonville; Oct 26th at home vs Houston; Dec 7th at home vs the NY Giants

Notes: When you look over the Titans roster you see a good mix of young and veteran talent.  But when you look at their schedule they could potentially start the season 0-4 and then potentially lose five straight games after their Bye Week (Week 9).  I am unsure how their offense is going to keep up against teams like the Eagles, Redskins, and Cowboys or how they are going to fair against tough defenses like the Steelers, Ravens, Bengals and even the Browns defense could be a matchup problem for the Titans.

 

Projected AFC South Winner: Indianapolis Colts

 

AFC North

 
Baltimore Ravens

Projected Record: 9-7

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -3

Swing Games:  Sept 11 at home vs Pittsburgh; Oct 5th at Indianapolis; Nov 2nd at Pittsburgh; Dec 7th at Miami; Dec 21st at Houston

Notes:  The Ravens improved their defense this past offseason but their offense’s ability to be productive and consistent is the big question.  They open the season with three straight games against division rivals followed by four of the next six games on the road.   After their Bye Week (Week 11) the Ravens have to two of the top ten offenses from 2013 (At New Orleans then home versus the Chargers).  This may be another season where Baltimore have to lean on its defense to bail them out if they want to make the playoffs.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -3

Swing Games: Oct 5th at New England; Oct 19th at Indianapolis; Nov 30th at Tampa Bay; Dec 7th at home vs Pittsburgh

Notes:  The Bengals have one of the most difficult schedules of the 2014 NFL season.  Their Bye Week is early in the season (Week 4) and come out of that Bye Week playing three straight 2013 playoff teams (At the Patriots, Home versus Carolina, At the Colts).  Meanwhile, five of their last seven games are on the road but one of those home games is against the Denver Broncos.  Time will tell if the Bengals new offensive and defensive coordinators are up to the challenge or if they will come up short compared to their predecessors who are now Head Coaches in the NFL.

 

Cleveland Browns

Projected Record: 3-13

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1

Swing Games: Oct 5th at Tennessee; Nov 2nd at home vs Tampa; Dec 14th at home vs Cincinnati

Notes:  The Browns open the season against three potential playoff teams (Saints, Steelers, Ravens) then have an early Bye Week (Week 4) then five of their next nine games are on the road.  The only way the Browns can be competitive this season is with good defense and offensive ball control with the running game.  They will not be blown out in many games but their overall roster is lacking compared to many of their opponents in 2014.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Record: 10-6

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +1 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 21st at Carolina; Oct 26th at home vs Colts; Nov 2nd at home vs Baltimore; Nov 30th at home vs Saints

Notes:  The Steelers have they least treacherous schedule of all of the AFC North teams in 2014.  They play only two games versus 2013 playoff teams (Carolina and Indianapolis) before their Bye Week (Week 12).  After their Bye Week they do have a difficult stretch to end the season against the Saints, Bengals twice, Falcons and Chiefs.  But if they gain enough positive momentum before this five game stretch it is reasonable to say they could come out of that with a winning record and seal a division win.  Also, expect Lance Moore to put up better numbers at Wide Receiver in 2014 with the Steelers than Emmanuel Sanders did in 2013.

 

Projected AFC North Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

AFC West

 
Denver Broncos

Projected Record: 12-4

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3

Swing Games: Oct 19th at home vs San Francisco; Oct 23rd at home vs San Diego; Nov 2nd at New England; Nov 16th at St. Louis; Dec 14th at San Diego

Notes:  The Broncos as a team maybe have a better roster than last season, especially on defense.  Time will tell if the early Bye Week (Week 4) will be a positive or negative for them.  After the Bye Week they play two of 2013’s top defenses (49ers and Cardinals) along with two of 2013’s top offense teams (Patriots and Chargers).  Don’t expect the Broncos to have an easy go of the 2014 season since they have to play the NFC West which is the home of four of the top ten NFL defenses in 2013.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1

Swing Games: Sept 21 at Miami; Sept 29th at home vs New England; Oct 26th at home vs St. Louis; Nov 9th at Buffalo; Dec 21st at Pittsburgh

Notes:  The Chiefs have a much more difficult schedule ahead of them in 2014 compared to last season.  Aside from having to play the four teams from the NFC West (all are 2013 Top Ten Defenses) but they also have to play well coached defensive teams like the Rams, Jets and Steelers.  The Chiefs have an efficient offense, not a high powered offense so if they get behind it will not be easy to make a comeback.   Also considering they play three of their first five games against 2013 Playoff teams, do not expect the Chiefs to start the season on a hot streak like last season.

 

Oakland Raiders

Projected Record: 5-11

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 14th at home vs Houston; Oct 12th at home vs San Diego; Oct 19th at home vs Arizona; Oct 26th at Cleveland; Nov 20th at home vs Kansas City

Notes:  The Raiders have more talent on their roster than many people would expect.  The problem for them is they play many teams that have well coached defenses (The Jets, Patriots, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams) while the Raiders are starting a rookie Quarterback.  I think Derek Carr will be a better pro compared to his older brother, the Raiders will likely have a rollercoaster season in which they will be tested on both sides of the ball.

 

San Diego Chargers

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -1

Swing Games: Sept 8th at Arizona; Sept 21st at Buffalo; Oct 19th at home vs Kansas City; Dec 7th at home vs New England; Dec 14th at home vs Denver

Notes:  San Diego has a good team but they face a tough lineup in 2014.  They open their season playing two of the top defenses in the NFL (Cardinals and Seahawks), play two straight road games before their Bye Week (At Denver and Miami; Bye Week is Week 10), and end their season playing four consecutive 2013 Playoff teams (Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs).  Not an easy schedule but if they can get a few games to go their way, they could still make the playoffs with the talent they have on the roster.

 

AFC West Projected Winner: Denver Broncos

 

Projected AFC Playoff Picture

1. New England Patriots

2. Denver Broncos

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. Baltimore Ravens

6. Houston Texans

 

Projected Playoff Results:

Wild Card Round - Ravens defeat Colts; Steelers defeat Texans

Divisional Round - Patriots defeat Ravens; Broncos defeat Steelers

AFC Championship - Patriots (home team) defeat Broncos