FB Live Podcast 2-18-17 - SBS on 97.3 FM ESPN AC

Josh Hennig, host of SBS on 97.3 FM ESPN Atlantic City Saturdays from 12-2pm.  On 2-18-17, Josh talks whats wrong with NBA and how to fix it, thoughts on the Philadelphia Sixers at the All-Star break, if Eagles should bring back Desean Jackson this offseason, thoughts on Basketball Hall of fame Finalists, shots fired by Terrell Owens-Cris Carter, and reaction to latest MMA/UFC news

Future of University of Miami Hurricanes Football

With the firing of former University of Miami Hurricanes Football Coach Al Golden, Miami will be in search of their fifth Head Coach since 2000.  “The U”, as it is famously and infamously known as, has been in search of reclaiming their “glory years” for over a decade.  Back in the 1980’s Miami’s Football was one of the dominant forces in college football, winning three national titles with three different Head Coaches.  From 1983-2001 Miami has won five National Championships while sending hundreds of players to the ranks of the NFL. 

But since their loss to Ohio State in 2002 National Title game the Football program at Miami has been on a downward spiral.  From poor recruiting classes to teams not meeting expectations to coaching mis-hires by Athletic Directors, the tumult of the Miami Hurricanes program has been well documented.  In fact, if it wasn’t for Billy Corben’s documentaries about “The U” many people would not understand the depth of the impact of Miami Hurricanes’ Football Program.  The 1980’s Miami Hurricanes changed how other college football programs looked at players and football success. 

Before the 1980’s many football programs success was gauged by winning Bowl games and beating their rivals year to year, and if you had players who won a Heisman Trophy or other major awards that was credited to coaching legacy.  The emphasis was on the school and coaches. The players were treated as an accessory to success.  But Miami Hurricanes Head Coaches Harold Schnellenberger, Jimmy Johnson, and Dennis Erickson were not demonstrative leaders of their football programs.  They focused on the student-athletes and let players express themselves on the field.  After Miami’s dominance the standards for college football excellence shifted.  No longer was the emphasis on just winning versus rivals and winning bowl games to make the university money.  Instead the goal was great recruiting classes, sending as many players as possible to the NFL, winning as many games as possible, and playing a schedule that gets you on TV.  Yes, winning championships are the ultimate goal, but the 1980’s Miami Hurricanes showed that a successful football program could no longer be gauged by just the old standards.

The standards set by “The U” in the 1980’s have evolved over the last 25 years.  In 2015 The University of Miami is behind the times in terms of facilities, quality coaches, and winning big games.  Miami’s football facilities are not up to par compared to many other schools who play Division 1 Football at the highest level of competition.  Their stadium is a 45-60 minutes’ drive away from campus (depending on the time of day), and they have an obsession with hiring coaches who are lacking certain necessary skills to be successful head coaches at a University such as Miami.  After Butch Davis left in 2000, look at the coaches who were brought in to be Head Coaches:

-Larry Coker was considered a “Players’ Coach”.

With a background as an offensive position coach and offensive coordinator, Coker won a National Title in 2001 and led the Hurricanes to another championship game in 2002 with a roster full of players recruited by former coach Butch Davis.  Once those players left for the NFL, Coker never won more than 9 games in a season and he had trouble recruiting the same level of talent.  Also as an offensive minded coach and his lack of recruit acumen the defenses his last couple years dropped off.

-Randy Shannon was hired to be a throwback Head Coach.

Because of his background as a defensive coach and as a former player at “The U” he was a very good recruiter.  Despite Shannon raising the level of play of the team’s defense, cultivating top 25 recruiting classes for four straight years, and also raising the overall graduation rates and GPA of the football program, his win-loss record before he was fired was 16-16.  Shannon was not a great football game manager nor was he good at hiring the right offensive coaches to develop the team’s offensive skill players.

-Al Golden was a rebuilding coach from Temple

Golden spent five years rebuilding a University of Temple Football program that had a win-loss record of 3-31 before he arrived on campus.  After bringing Temple back to Football relevance and their first winning seasons in 30 years, he was hired to do the same in Miami.  But when the school fell under NCAA sanctions, Golden’s uphill battle to rebuild the program took a major hit.  His style of recruiting and coaching was not the best fit for a program whose tradition was based around great athletes being led to win big games.  Golden had trouble beating rivals, consistently finishing the season below expectations despite the talent on the roster.  According to many reports, Golden had trouble relating to players and his game plans were lacking in creativity.

Whoever becomes the next University of Miami Football Head Coach has an uphill battle in their efforts to try to raise the level of play of a program that has not won more than 9 games since 2003.  Overcoming a lack of support from school administrators, underwhelming football facilities, poor stadium location, and recruiting to players who were in kindergarten the last time Miami was playing in a National Championship game; the challenge is real and daunting for anyone becoming the next Head Coach.  Their next Head Coach needs the following attributes:

-High Football IQ and good coaching staff:

Miami needs to bring in someone who is more well-rounded than previous coaches.  The great head coaches in college football in 2015 are great game day strategists, work well with their coaching staff, and know how to hire great coaches that compliment and fulfill the needs of the football program.

-Recruiting plus development:

Miami’s next Head Coach needs to be more than just a great recruiter.  The coach needs to have experience at developing players to be great on game day.  Having talent is a good start for any football team, but a coach who can maximize that talent on the football field is just as important.  One of the major traditions at Miami is the hundreds of players who have gone on to be starting players in the NFL.  Continuing this tradition is an important part of the school’s history and future success.

-Bridge the gap between the athletic department and the rest of the University: The next Head Coach of the University of Miami needs to build the relationship behind the scenes of advancing the football program.  Whether people in South Florida want to admit it or not, Miami’s Football program has made that university millions of dollars, most of that money that has not been invested back into the football program.  Most of that money was used to invest in academia, other athletic programs, and giving people with fat pockets more money to put in those pockets among the university’s administration.  What made Charlie Strong a great coach at University of Louisville, Chris Pederson at Boise State, Mark Richt at University of Georgia, Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State, as well as Mark Bellotti and Chip Kelly at University of Oregon was their ability to not just win football games, not just recruit high level talent, but also get their university to invest resources into the football program and its players.  These skills at relationship building with administration, academia, players and future recruits open doors for Strong, Pederson, and Kelly to get next level job opportunities while coaches such as Richt, Gundy and Bellotti became mainstays at their Universities.

Can the University of Miami reclaim their tradition of excellence?  Yes, but they need the right head coach who can do what Larry Coker, Randy Shannon, and Al Golden were unable to do.  Like I said earlier, you are recruiting kids who were in kindergarten the last time Miami was a great football program.  The football program needs a fresh approach, a different strategy on and off the field, things that Coker, Shannon, and Golden were unable to offer.  

Dolphins Firing Philbin another example of the Failed "Offensive Guru"

On Monday the Miami Dolphins fired their Head Coach Joe Philbin and installed former NFL Tight End Dan Campbell as the Interim Head Coach.  This will be Miami’s fourth Head Coach since 2008, a period of years with only one playoff appearance. Philbin represents another failure of the so called “Offensive Gurus” in the NFL as Head Coaches.  While the term “failure” is a subjective and overused term in the sports world, history speaks for itself.

The NFL has overvalued men who are offensive coaches and coordinators for decades, turning these men into Head Coaches all over the league.  Whether it’s Mike Martz, Jim Zorn, Marty Mornhiweg, Mike Sherman, Steve Spurrier, or Mark Trestman, there is a long list of “geniuses” or “gurus” who were supposed to turn teams around and revolutionize franchises.  In fact only four teams over the last 15 years have won a Super Bowl with a Head Coach with an offensive coaching background.  Even then, we should question whether those coaches won because of their offensive prowess:

Super Bowl XXXV (2001): Baltimore Ravens

Head Coach Brian Billick has a background as an Offensive Coordinator, Receivers Coach and Assistant Coach in College and NFL.  But the 2000 Baltimore Ravens are known as one of the top five defensive units in NFL history as they won 34-7 with a Quarterback who never played in Baltimore after that season (Trent Dilfer).  In fact, during his tenure as Ravens Head Coach, Billick would never be able to cultivate an offense half as high powered as the one he presided over while coaching with the Minnesota Vikings in the 1990’s.

Super Bowl XXXVII (2003): Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head Coach Jon Gruden was considered one of the top offensive coaches in the NFL before he became the Oakland Raiders then later Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach.  While Gruden revived the careers of veterans such as Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia, it was the dominant Bucs defense that earn him that Super Bowl title.  In fact, Tampa won 48-21 over Gruden’s former team, the Raiders, in a game in which the Bucs defense forced multiple turnovers and never allowed the Raiders offense to gain any real traction.  Gruden coached the Bucs for seven seasons, with only one trip to the Super Bowl, the rest of the seasons ending in failure to meet expectations.

Super Bowl XLIV (2010): New Orleans Saints

Head Coach Sean Payton spent nine years as a Quarterbacks Coach and Offensive Coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, and Dallas Cowboys before being hired to his first job as Head Coach with the Saints.  Despite having one of the top Quarterbacks in NFL history in Drew Brees, the Saints won their Super Bowl thanks to their defense.  The Saints went into the playoffs with a defense top five in the league in Interceptions and least points scored against.  In the Super Bowl they won 31-17 limiting another future Hall of Fame Quarterback, Peyton Manning, to only one passing touchdown all game.

Super Bowl XLV (2011): Green Bay Packers

Head Coach Mike McCarthy was a long time Quarterbacks Coach and Offensive Coordinator with the Chiefs, Packers, Saints, and 49ers before returning to Green Bay to be their new Head Coach.  What is forgotten about that 2010 Green Bay Packers team was how good their defense was. The unit was top ten in the NFL that season in Least Points Per Game Against, Total Yards Against, and Turnovers Forced.  The Packers 31-25 victory was the icing on the cake of a great season for a talented all-around team.

The last high powered offense to win  Super Bowl without a good defense was the 1999 St. Louis Rams and even they needed a last second clutch defensive play to win the game.  Yet the NFL is still obsessed with the “hot coordinator” who gets labelled an offensive “genius” or “guru”.   The long list of “failed” Head Coaches in the NFL over the last 20 years is predominantly men with offensive coaching backgrounds.  Part of the issue is some people are not cut out to be Head Coaches, such coaches are specialists not executive game managers.  Others do not succeed because they are all about a “system” or “scheme” then find out that not being flexible with their game plans leads to limited results in the NFL.  This is a major reason why so many college coaches do not succeed in the NFL, In professional team sports a coach must structure a game plan around his talent, not force pieces into their system.

Being an NFL Head Coach is more than having a high Football IQ and being great talent evaluator, they must almost manage personalities of players and the coaching staff.  There is some psychology involved in coaching that gets overlooked.  In order to bring out the best in a player the coach must understand what motivates that individual, see through the obvious skills and help unlock what that player is truly capable of on game day.  It is not enough to know a player has great potential; the coach must also bring that talent out of the player in order to help them succeed.

This a major reason why so many of the successful NFL Head Coaches come from a defensive coaching background.  As a defensive position coach or defensive coordinator, success is more dependent on bringing out the skills of players they coach than it is about scheme.  Head Coaches such as Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll have success because they see the potential of their players then turn that potential into usable talent by putting players in a position to be successful.  Both coaches understand that without the players, all the hours of structure, game plans, research, etc is useless if the players cannot execute on game day.  Also what makes both of these coaches successful is the fact they have learn from past failures.

This is what really differentiates great coaches from subpar ones: the ability to see what they did wrong in the past, learn from it, and take those learning experiences into the next opportunity.  Too many of these offensive “gurus” and “geniuses” are overconfident in their systems and buy into their own hype so deeply they become arrogant.  The old saying “Pride comes before a fall” plays out in the NFL from week to week during games and press conferences, as these coaches show their insecurities while being questioned about what is going on with their teams. 

Look back on all the “successful” NFL Head Coaches with offensive coaching backgrounds.  Andy Reid was at his best in Philadelphia with Jim Johnson’s defenses wreaking havoc on opponents keep games within reach.  Sean Payton’s Saints and Mike McCarthy’s Packers have high scoring offenses led by top talent Quarterbacks yet haven’t been back to the Super Bowl without a good defense to slow down opponents.  Jason Garrett’s Cowboys couldn’t get over that habitual 8-8 record until they had a defense to compliment the offense.  Even Head Coaches such as Gary Kubiak and Bruce Arians know that without a solid defense to make up the difference when their offenses falter then they cannot win games.

The firing of Joe Philbin only amplifies the importance of the old saying “Defense wins championships” in the NFL.  Football is the ultimate team game and in order for a team to be successful, they need the players, all of them, to execute on game day.  For all of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady record breaking seasons as Quarterbacks, none of them won a Super Bowl in those years.  I certainly do not think that is a coincidence.  

Top 4 Takeaway Thoughts after NFL Week 4 Games

With the first quarter of the 2015 NFL season in the books, here are some of my takeaway thoughts after Week 4:

1. Too many Mediocre Kickers in the NFL.

The bizarre trend started on Thursday night when Josh Scobee of the Pittsburgh Steelers missed two Field Goals at the end of the game, allowing the Baltimore Ravens chances to tie and win the game.  Twenty-four hours later, the Steelers released Scobee and signed Chris Boswell to be their new Kicker.

 On Sunday the Philadelphia Eagles had Caleb Sturgis as their Kicker with Cody Parkey out for the season with a groin injury; Sturgis went on to miss a field goal attempt and an extra point attempt. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kicker Kyle Brindza went 1 for 3 on Field Goal attempts this past Sunday AND missed an extra point; he is only hitting on 50 percent of his field goals in 2015.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had two opportunities to win their game versus the Colts on Sunday, but their Kicker Jason Myers missed both Field Goal attempts.

On the flip side veterans of over ten plus years in the league Adam Vinateri, Robbie Gould and Sebastian Janikowski are consistent every year, averaging over 80 percent accuracy for their careers.  Also Atlanta Falcons have Matt Bryant and the Baltimore Ravens have Justin Tucker, both reliable kickers their teams know they can depend on.  Furthermore the Denver Broncos Brandon McManus is the team’s third full time place Kicker in the last ten years, all three of those kickers have a career average of over 70 percent accuracy.

The truth is that with the way the game is played in the NFL in 2015 Kickers are under-valued and teams are not doing a good enough job at evaluating talent or preparing their Kickers for Game Day.  The Steelers, Eagles, and Jaguars all lost on Sunday no thanks to their Kickers but none of these teams learned from the history of these players.  I always find it ironic when teams assume a guy will play different for their team because of the player’s “talent”.  With so many kickers in the NFL missing extra points and field goals, it is becoming ugly and teams need to do a better job at scouting along with development of their Kickers.

2. Devonta Freeman has “Wally Pip’ed” Tevin Coleman in Atlanta.

Coming into the 2015 season there was a battle in training camp for the Atlanta Falcons starting Running Back position.  Devonta Freeman coming into his 2^nd season after being drafted out of Florida State put up lackluster performances during the Pre-season leading to Rookie RB Tevin Coleman being named the starter.  But Coleman got injured opening the door for Freeman to get an opportunity to start the last two weeks.  Freeman has scored three rushing touchdowns in each game and compiled 342 Total Yards from scrimmage in two games.

Hall of Fame Yankees First Baseman Lou Gehrig was a “nobody” until starting First Baseman Wally Pipp took a day off due to a “migraine headache”. Gehrig would then go on to start 2,130 games in a row for the Yankees.   While I am not saying Devonta Freeman will be a Hall of Fame Running Back, I think it is fair to assume that Freeman has a strangle hold on the starting Running back position in Atlanta.  Coleman is a rookie, he is going to have to wait his turn when he returns from injury as that starting position is no longer exclusively his anymore.

3. The Eagles and Dolphins are a mess for a good reason.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins are 1-3 after Week Four of the 2015 NFL season for a good reason.  Neither team has learned from the past.  Both teams have been down this path before, having an offseason of big talent acquisitions then start the season playing underwhelming football.  The reality is, that building a team through free agency and trades rarely equals success.  You cannot buy wins and championships in the NFL.  If you could then the Washington Redskins would be a dynasty by now.

The Eagles have tried to build a team by unloading most of the players from the previous head coach and bringing in players Chip Kelly believes are good fit for his program.  But instead of building a team, he is trying to “plug and play” players as parts in a machine.  The Eagles have made the mistake, like many before, of overlooking the fundamentals of the game in order to be on the “cutting edge”.  The Eagles have seemingly regressed the last couple years as their Head Coach has unloaded talent and not replaced them with comparable skill players.  Spending a lot of money does not equal wins; it just means Byron Maxwell and Demarco Murray got paid for past performances.

The Dolphins have had roster turnover every year since Head Coach Joe Philbin arrived in Miami.  Instead of building a team around Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins have been swapping in and out players like pieces of a jig-saw puzzle looking for the “right combination”.  They dish out big money for Defensive Lineman Ndamukong Suh but they let reliable players such as Wide receiver Brian Hartline and Defensive Lineman Jared Odrick leave.  The team has played underwhelming on offense and defense in 2015.

I have said this numerous times: teams cannot buy championships or fabricate chemistry.  No team in NFL history has ever had great success with this formula yet the Dolphins and Eagles insist that it can work.  I remember someone asked about the arrogance of Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly and ineptitude of Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin in recent weeks; it appears both adjectives might be true looking at how 2015 has played out.

4. The Broncos, Panthers and Packers are undefeated in 2015 thanks to defense.

We have been inundated by the media for years about how a team needs a “franchise Quarterback” in order to win in the NFL.  Quarterback is one of the most important position in all of sports, I do not disagree, but Football is still a team sport and the unit must work together in order to win.  While Peyton Manning is a future Hall of Famer, Cam Newton is one of the most talented players in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the top Quarterback in the NFL, all of these teams are winning games thanks to the efforts of their defenses.

The Packers and Panthers defenses have only allowed a total of 71 points against in 4 games this season, an average of 17.8 points per game against.  Meanwhile the Broncos have allowed only 69 points against, an average of 17.3 points per game against.  These three teams are among the top defenses in the NFL in 2015 and after the first quarter of the season they deserve recognition.  Peyton Manning has looked subpar based on his own standards, Cam Newton has a below average group of receivers, and Aaron Rodgers has injuries to his Wide Receivers.  These Pro Bowl Quarterbacks can thank their defenses for coming to their aid to help their teams win games.

By the way, do you know the team that has allowed the least number of points against so far in 2015? The New York Jets with a 3-1 win-loss record have allowed a total of 55 points against, an average in 4 games of 13.8 points per game against.  In the era of high powered offenses and Quarterbacks getting paid multi-million dollar contracts, the old adage of “Defense wins championships” still carries weight.

Diagnosis and Solution for Nine NFL teams 0-2 after Week Two

After Week Two of the 2015 NFL season there are nine teams off to a 0-2 start. Many of these teams had pre-season expectations to make the playoffs. So what went wrong between August 1^st and September 22^nd? Reality hit that being “good on paper” does not equal success on the football field.

So I am going to look at each of these 0-2 teams like a doctor: analyze the symptoms, diagnose the problem, and give a solution/prescription to turn things around.  So let’s get started:

Baltimore Ravens

Symptoms: The Ravens have been playing inconsistent each of the first two weeks.  In week one they limit the Broncos offense and future Hall of Fame Quarterback Peyton Manning to under 20 points then the next week the defense allows 37 points from a Raiders team full of young players. As a team they rank in the lower half of the league in almost every offensive statistical category.

Diagnosis: Injuries at key positions are hurting the Ravens. All-Pro Linebacker Terrell Suggs is out for the season, Pro Bowl Tight End Dennis Pitta is on the Physically Unable to Perform list, starting Offensive Tackle Eugene Monroe is out with a concussion, and rookie Wide Receiver Breshard Perriman is recovering from a knee injury. As a result, the team has been playing guys at these positions who are not at the same level of skill as the injured starters.

Solution: The Ravens do not have a plethora of high skilled players starting at every position. They cannot get away with being the most talented team on the field each week. This team needs to get back to what has served them well in the past, which is being physical on both sides of the ball. If they can physically impose their will on opponents they can win ball games. Neither of their first two losses were blowouts, both games came down to final possessions, so they must execute better in crunch time.

But having to “turn on a switch” and play a certain way at the end of games is a lot harder when the team hasn’t been playing well throughout the game. Starting in the 1^st quarter of each game the team needs to impose their will and game plan on their opponents then carry that momentum throughout the rest of the game.

Houston Texans

Symptoms: On paper the Houston Texans are one of the most talented defenses in the NFL. Yet they have allowed their first two opponents this season to score 24 points and 27 points in consecutive weeks. This is facing offenses with limited offensive skill players so it would be assumed that a team as talented as the Texans should be able to slow opponents down. Also, Texans have started two different Quarterbacks in both of their games this season.

Diagnosis: The problem is execution. There is no reason why a defense like this should allow a talented Tight End such as Travis Kelce to be so wide open and be able to score two receiving touchdowns. There is no reason why Panthers Quarterback Cam Newton should not be under pressure when he is the most dangerous player on the opposing offense. Also, after the first two weeks the Texans passing offense is top 12 in the NFL in passing yards per game and has 28 first downs on passing plays. Yet they are only averaging 18.5 points per game and their 3^rd down conversion rate is a lowly 24 percent.

Solution: The defense needs to stop leaning on All-Pro Defensive lineman JJ Watt. Yes, he is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, but one man cannot do everything. Football is a team game and the other players on the Texans defense need to step up and handle their assignments on every play. On offense, this team needs to balance their attack. They are running double the passing plays versus running plays; they need to be more committed to the running game and not leave so much pressure on the passing attack to convert on 3^rd downs to keep drives going.

Indianapolis Colts

Symptoms: The Colts have been outscored on the season 47-21 versus teams who when you combine their rosters only have two players on offense who have been Pro Bowl selections. Neither Quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor nor Ryan Fitzpatrick are overly difficult to game plan against. Also the Colts offense is bottom in the NFL ranks in turnovers in 2015.

Diagnosis: The Colts offensive and defensive lines have played poorly in their first two games. Neither side of the ball is gaining leverage against the opposition and these guys are being pushed around almost every play. I do not care how great Quarterback Andrew Luck is, or how talented his receivers are. If the offensive line does not hold their blocking assignments, this offense will keep looking putrid. On the flip side, the defensive front is not getting consistent pressure on the opposing offense, leaving the back end of the defense to be taken advantage of from down to down. Opposing offenses are averaging 343 total yards of offense versus Colts in 2015.

Solution: The offensive and defensive lineman need to do their jobs better or this team will continue to flounder. The men in the trenches are the foundation of success for any winning franchise. It doesn’t matter how talented the Quarterback and Wide Receivers are on paper. Poor execution leads to opponents having the upper hand and then the team starts pressing because they are behind on the score board. The Colts need to get back to the fundamentals of football. They signed Running Back Frank Gore for a reason and I am sure it wasn’t to just block for Andrew Luck.  They need to stop being afraid to attack on defense, especially when you have guys like Trent Cole and Robert Mathis on the roster. The Colts have to impose their game plan on opponents in order to win games. This finesse style of game play the last two weeks certainly isn’t working.

New York Giants

Symptoms: For two straight weeks the Giants have held the lead in games in the 4^th quarter, mismanaged their offense, then allowed opponents to get the ball back on offense at end of the game and score touchdowns. The Giants are outscoring teams 37-23 through first 3 quarters; in the 4^th quarter opponents are outscoring the Giants 28-10!

Diagnosis: The Giants are not finishing games with the right attitude. Instead of playing the way they did the first 3 quarters all the way until the end, in the 4^th quarter, they are playing overly conservative in effort to “maintain the lead” and “not make mistakes”.  A problem in sports is whenever a team or player is worried about making a mistake, those problems manifest themselves during the game and then the worry becomes the nightmare facing them.

Solution: The Giants need to stop letting up on the gas pedal when entering the 4^th quarter. They need to be in attack mode all game long, not just 75 percent of the game.  They need to treat the scoreboard like no lead is safe and they have to keep attacking opponents on offense while allowing their defense to continue being aggressive until the final seconds go off the clock. They can lay back when the game is over, not in the fourth quarter.

Philadelphia Eagles

Symptoms: The Eagles offense is averaging only 17 points per game and statistically have the worst rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 35 rushing yards per game.  Meanwhile opponents are averaging 377 total yards per game and the Eagles defense pressure on the opposing Quarterback is so bad they have only one sack in 2015.

Diagnosis: The Eagles are not just playing poorly, but are misusing players on both sides of the ball. Running Back Demarco Murray is a “North-South” power runner who is great running between the tackles. The Eagles keep trying to run him on stretch plays and hand offs out of shotgun. Byron Maxwell did his best work as a Cornerback in Seattle playing a specific side of the field, not matched up on the opponent’s top receiver all game long. While Wide Receiver Jordan Matthews does his best work on slants and deep comeback pattern passing plays, the Eagles keep running him on deep outs and crossing pick passing plays. Linebacker Connor Barwin is great at blitzing the Quarterback on 3^rd down and stopping running plays and screen plays as a power player. Eagles keep sending him into coverage on multiple downs.

Solution: The Eagles coaches need to utilize their players based on their skill sets instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. If Chip Kelly is as great a football mind as people claim, he will know how to customize his game plans based around his player’s strengths instead of asking them to run plays they are outside of their comfort zones. Allow the talent on this roster to do what they are best at, then you will have a chance to win ball games.

Detroit Lions

Symptoms: The Lions are in the bottom half of the league in points per game, rush yards per game, total yards per game and 3^rd down conversation percentage. Their offense has been inconsistent despite all the talent they have on the roster.  Also, opponents are averaging 29.5 points per game versus the Lions.

Diagnosis: The Lions have built their team around the Pro Bowl Quarterback Matthew Stafford with talented players such as Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, and Amir Abdullah. But the offensive play calling has been unbalanced. The running game has been so rough that the team’s second leading rusher so far this season is their Quarterback Stafford. Which highlights the other issue. The offensive line is not getting enough leverage at the snap of the ball, allowing opposing defenses to dictate pace and limiting the offense’s ability to execute efficiently.

Solution: The Lions must do a better job at putting the Quarterback in a position to be successful or they will continue to lose games. This team’s defense is built to play when their offense is ahead so they can attack the opponent’s offense. They are not built to play from behind so they need to not start slow as they have the last two weeks. They need to get leads early and execute on offense, giving them a chance to finish the game strong instead of fighting from behind and hope for the best.

Chicago Bears

Symptoms: The Bears offense is not the problem as they average 23 points per game and statistically one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL. The problem is their defense, as their opponents have score 11 touchdowns in just the first two weeks of this season. The defense has registered zero sacks and their only interception is by one of their pass rushers, Jared Allen.

Diagnosis: Ever since the team fired former Head Coach Lovie Smith a few years ago, the defense has played below average despite the personnel on their roster. When your defense is unable to stop opponents then the offense is put in the dubious position of having to play catch up. Being without starting Quarterback Jay Cutler for a few weeks will further inhibit the team’s ability to keep up in games their defense can’t slow down opponents.

Solution: Talented veterans such as Jared Allen, Antrel Rolle, Lamarr Houston, and Shea McClellin need to take command of the situation and lead this team to play better.  These guys know what it takes to be successful in the NFL and without them this team will finish dead last in the division. The Bears do not have the offensive firepower to win only with their offense. The defense must step up, play up to their potential, and keep opponents from averaging 39.5 point per game against them. They need to shave at least 10 points off that average to allow their offense to have a chance to win games for them.

New Orleans Saints

Symptoms: Despite having a future Hall of Famer at Quarterback in Drew Brees, the Saints are averaging 19 points per game and their offensive line has allowed their Quarterback to be sacked six times. Meanwhile, despite having “defensive guru” Rob Ryan as Defensive Coordinator, the Saints are allowing opponents an average of 380 total yards per game.

Diagnosis: The Saints offensive and defensive lines are under performing in 2015.  Despite the big trade to bring in Pro Bowl Center Max Unger in the offseason, the line has been unable to keep defenders off their Quarterback consistently. Also the line is not gaining the leverage needed at the snap to allow any consistency play from the running game. On the flip side, the defense is getting almost no pressure on opposing Quarterbacks and the secondary is playing sloppy in coverage.

Solution: The Saints need to pick up their overall play in the trenches. They cannot expect to win games if they are getting manhandled after the snap of the football on each play. Drew Brees reportedly has a bruised rotator cuff, thanks to his offensive line doing a poor job of protecting him. The defense needs to get more pressure on opposing Quarterbacks in order to make life more difficult for offenses they face. The coaches Sean Payton and Rob Ryan need to see what they can do to shake up their game plan schemes so they appear less predictable week to week.

Seattle Seahawks

Symptoms: The Seahawks are allowing 30.5 points per game to be scored on them, the highest number in the last 5 seasons. They have only gotten sacks on opposing Quarterbacks 4 times and registered zero interceptions. Meanwhile Seattle has allowed their own starting Quarterback Russell Wilson to be sacked by opponents eight times and their offense is in the bottom half of the league statistically in categories such as total yards per game, passing yards, and total points scored.

Diagnosis: This is not a team right now. Too many players are going onto the field not for the team but playing for themselves and to impress to get contracts. Safety Kam Chancellor has been sitting out, refusing to play, because he wants a pay raise after getting a new contract two years ago. This type of attitude is seemingly permeating the rest of the roster as too many guys on both sides of the ball are playing as individuals instead of executing as a unit. With players such as Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and Cliff Avrill, there is no reason why they should be allowing opponents to score as many points per game.

Solution: Protect your Quarterback and get to the other team’s Quarterback. Seattle Seahawks, the solution is simple.  Stop worrying about the next contact or what the guy next to you is doing or when Kam Chancellor is coming back. Step up, do your job, support your current teammates. Don’t worry about who is no longer on the team because they went elsewhere and got paid. Also, you acquired one of the top offensive weapons in the NFL, Tight End Jimmy Graham. Get him more involved in the offense.  Graham led the Saints in targets on passing plays three of the last four seasons in New Orleans and despite the fact everyone knew the Saints were throwing it to him, he still put up huge statistics every year. There is no reason why he can’t do the same in Seattle.

The Real Difference between Philadelphia Eagles & Dallas Cowboys

We have all heard the phrase “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it”.  Well on the flip side, how about the phrase “If we do not learn from history then we are doomed to repeat it”?  Week Two of the NFL season embodied those phrases in the matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.  Two long standing rivals whose organizations are in very different situations.

The Cowboys let their Pro Bowl Running Back, Demarco Murray, leave after leading the NFL in Rushing Yards.  People scoffed at them when the team put their faith in young Joseph Randle and oft-injured veteran Darren McFadden to carry the load of the running game in Murray’s absence. Also, the Cowboys have Lance Dunbar as their third down situation back. The Cowboys took this leap of faith because they have seen this story before and have spent the last few years building one of the top offensive lines in the NFL through the draft. Tyron Smith, Zack Miller, and Travis Frederick were all drafted when the so called “experts” said the Cowboys had other options to pick in the first round of the NFL Draft each year.

The Cowboys invested in depth by picking up the discarded former first round pick Brandon Weeden to be their backup Quarterback. Before Weeden got to Dallas his career statistics were 55 percent completion percentage with a 26 interceptions thrown in two seasons with the Cleveland Browns. In six games playing Quarterback for the Cowboys, Weeden has a 79 percent completion percentage with four touchdowns and only two interceptions.

This is the same Cowboys organization that invested resources into the offensive line and the backup Quarterback during the run of success in the 1990’s.  Those teams had Steve Beuerlein and Bernie Kosar as backups in case anything happened to their future Hall of Fame Quarterback Troy Aikman. Also the tactical moves by Head Coach Jimmy Johnson to build an offensive line with Pro Bowl selections Larry Allen, Erik Williams, and Nate Newton. Replicating the past with unheralded personnel moves such as these have put the Cowboys in a position as leaders in the NFC East with a 2-0 record to start the season.

On the other side of the field Sunday you have the Philadelphia Eagles who for the second straight week played underwhelming on both sides of the ball. The Eagles came into the season with high expectations after an offseason in which they overhauled the roster. The Eagles dished out 104 million dollars worth of contracts to Byron Maxwell, Demarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Over the last couple years they sent packing Pro Bowlers Desean Jackson, Lesean McCoy, and Evan Mathis in what 20-20 hindsight says was all about Head Coach Chip Kelly not wanting certain types of personalities on his team. Kelly also traded away Quarterback Nick Foles to the St. Louis Rams for former Heisman Trophy winner and 1st round draft pick Sam Bradford to be the Eagles new starting Quarterback.

Despite all the money spent and numerous personnel moves, the Eagles have played below average for the first two weeks of the 2015 NFL season. The Eagles roster looks good on paper, but so did that 2011 Philadelphia Eagles “Dream Team” (as nicknamed by then backup Quarterback Vince Young) that had Pro Bowl offseason acquisitions Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins, and Jason Babin to bolster the defense.  This was to match with an offense led by Quarterback Michael Vick who re-signed that offseason with the Eagles a contract that was 40 million dollars guaranteed. Tens of millions of dollars spent to build a winning team that finished the season 8-8.

The reality is that the splashy and headline grabbing offseason moves don’t win football games. The Washington Redskins, Oakland Raiders, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins are franchises that have won Super Bowls decades ago but did not learn from the past.  Instead these franchises have spent the last 25 years making the multi-million big free agent signings, splashy Head Coach hires, and trades for big name players.  But none of those moves have helped these teams win a Super Bowl.  In fact, only one of those franchises (the 2002 Oakland Raiders) has even reached the Super Bowl.

On the other hand, franchises such as the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, and New York Giants have put together teams that have not only reached the big game multiple times, but have won the Super Bowl multiple times over the last 20 years. These organizations have built their teams through calculated offseason signings that better the team while using the draft to build a team not just find a star. When these organizations do make mistakes, they do what is necessary to correct course, whether that be fire a Head Coach or unload a player via release or trade.  No one gets every move right, but it’s the smart organizations that learn from their mistakes and move forward to better the team for the current season and the future.

Since Chip Kelly became the Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach he has not been building a team. Instead he has been treating players like interchangeable parts to see if they fit in his system. He uses the draft to select players he thinks can fit his game plan instead of properly weighing the skill sets of these young men. When he drafted Linebacker Marcus Smith, Cornerback Jaylen Watkins and Quarterback Matt Barkley it was never to truly develop these players but instead to plug them into his system based on how he saw their potential fit. In 2015 neither Watkins nor Barkley are on the team anymore while Smith is buried on the depth chart.

Kelly has let go of players such as Wide Receiver Jeremy Maclin, Cornerback Brandon Boykin, Running Back Lesean McCoy, along with offensive lineman Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans because he claims these players did not fit “his” system. Interesting how these players are all playing for new teams in 2015 and they “fit” into other teams who have playoff aspirations.

The Eagles made a splashy move by bringing Kelly in to run their team but Kelly also has brought the wrong mentality with him. College Football has similarities to the Pro game but there is one major difference: while in college you recruit players to plug and play into your system, in the NFL you have to build a team and modify your system for the talent you have on the roster. The Cowboys after spending the first half of the 2000’s learning the hard way, have gone back to the 1990’s Jimmy Johnson model and have built a team. Free agent acquisitions are meant to add a player with a needed skill set to a team, not use signings and trades to build a roster.  We can see what works in New England, Green Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, yet the Philadelphia Eagles insist on re-inventing the wheel.

This is the second straight Eagles Head Coach who is an “offensive guru” who has come to “change the culture”. The media buys into the story line while overlooking the facts. Both Chip Kelly and Andy Reid were in their previous jobs for short periods of time. Both men had never been NFL Head Coaches or Coordinators. Neither Kelly nor Reid had spent time working with salary cap restrictions but were asked to be major decision makers in building NFL rosters. Andy Reid and Chip Kelly had limited experience hiring coaches to work under them (In Oregon Kelly inherited most of his staff from retiring Head Coach Mark Bellotti).

So again, I re-state my opening points, “If it’s not broken, don’t fix it”, and, “If we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it.”  No matter how much we debate the merits of team’s offseason activities, it still comes down to winning on the field each week in the NFL.  It’s looking like a long season for the Philadelphia Eagles and a season still ripe with potential for success for the Dallas Cowboys.

New NFL Head Coaches and Their Unexpected Success

Every offseason, no matter the team sport, there are coaches fired and new ones hired.  The hope of these franchises is that these new leaders can put the team in a position to win games and be a successful organization on and off the field. But success is not always an automatic result with a new Head Coach. Some coaches are not right organizational or roster fit while others are not best prepared for the role they are undertaking.

During Week One of the 2015 NFL regular season we saw three new Head Coaches get wins in their first game who many expected to lose opening week. These men are looking to bring change in their new organizations and a winning culture back to franchises whose fan bases who feel like playoff success is a distant memory. Ironically, in an age of high powered offenses, all three of these head coaches come from defensive backgrounds.  I am speaking of Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn.  Let us dig a little deeper into each situation.

-Rex Ryan, Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have not been to the playoffs in over 15 years, since Doug Flutie had his career resurrected in northern New York.  The Bills have shuffled through multiple Quarterbacks and Head Coaches; they have been on the short end of multiple poor roster moves and draft choices for years. The Bills needed a head coach who was more than just a good qualified candidate. They needed a man who could change the culture in Buffalo.  In hiring Rex Ryan, the Bills gained a Head Coach who changed the attitudes and expectations of another franchise, a coach who has shown consistency as a defensive coach with great defenses.

In week one the Buffalo Bills won a game against a team led by one of the top five Quarterbacks in the NFL. They did not just win their game versus Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Bills executed well in all facets of offense and defense. With starting Quarterback Tyrod Taylor the Bills offense displayed a solid balance between running and passing attacks as Taylor was composed, leading the team on productive possessions over and over again.  On the defensive side, the team kept frustrating the Colts offense, putting them in difficult situations while pressuring the Quarterback multiple times.

The Bills have the opportunity to build on their week one success as they head into another tough matchup versus the Patriots. The positive is that it is another game being playing at home so they will have the crowd behind them.  Rex Ryan has captained teams to the playoffs before and this Bills team may be the most talented offense he has ever worked with.  As a defensive minded coach, Ryan takes the most pride in his defenses so we can expect the Bills to continue to execute each week and frustrate many offenses.

-Dan Quinn, Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons

Some people were surprised when Dan Quinn got the job with the Atlanta Falcons.  Not because he wasn’t a qualified or good candidate, but other “big names” were considered for the job. According to reports, Quinn was the Falcons number one choice because of the organization he was coming from. Quinn has spent four of the last six seasons on the Seattle Seahawks coaching staff, a franchise that has played in two straight Super Bowls and been a consistent winner for the last few years.

The Falcons have experienced sporadic success over the last 18 years with three trips to the NFC Championship game and a Super Bowl appearance. But this playoff success has not been consistent under the leadership of any previous head coaches. The Falcons win over the Philadelphia Eagles in week one of the season displayed something that has been missing from Atlanta for years: a defense that executes consistently.  With Quarterback Matt Ryan no one denies the Falcons ability to put up points offensively from week to week; it is the defense that has been left with the big question mark hanging over it. Slowing down a potent Eagles offense was a big step forward for the Falcons.

Maintaining playoff success is always predicated on a team’s ability to execute on both offense and defense. If the Falcons can maintain their level of play and even improve it as the season goes along, they could be playoff bound.  Dan Quinn knows what it takes for a team to be a successful franchise and he is incorporating that down in Atlanta.

-Todd Bowles, Head Coach of the New York Jets

This will be the fourth straight head coach the New York Jets have hired with a defensive background. Each coach has come with different strengths to the Jets, but Todd Bowles is different in the fact he already has some head coaching experience.

Todd has served as an interim Head Coach on two different occasions so he is familiar with the management responsibilities of the job.  In the Jets week one win, their defense was very good and the offense ran the ball efficiently. Some may say that has nothing to do with Bowles since these are “Rex Ryan’s players” and the Cleveland Browns were without their starting Quarterback for most of the game.

The truth is that Todd Bowles has changed the attitude of the Jets on and off the field.  Bowles has gotten both veterans and young players to buy into the team concept.  Under previous head coaches the team was coached by disciplinarians or coaches players liked so much they wanted to hang out with “the boss”. Todd does a great job of balancing between structure and discipline along with creating a positive environment and locker room players want to be in.

Having the right attitude for a team is more than just one or two aspects; it is more than just chemistry, coaching style, and organizational structure.  Success is bred from example and the one who sets that example is the leader. In the NFL the Head Coach sets the standard for the entire organization.  The Head Coach is the face of the team in front of the public and media. A Head Coach has to know how to handle players and put them in a position to be successful.

In week one of the 2015 NFL season we saw these three men bring out the best in their teams and put them in a position to win games. In Buffalo, we see Rex Ryan taking a defense with talented players and make them a cohesive unit that executes well from down to down.  Also, Ryan is a confidence builder who gave Tyrod Taylor the vote of confidence as the starting Quarterback. That confidence from the Head Coach allowed Taylor to have the repetitions in practice to be able to excel on game day and that confidence from the top filters down to the other players on the team.

In Atlanta, we saw a defense that was able to hold a high powered Eagles offensive in check for most of the game. That can be directly correlated with their Head Coach, Dan Quinn, who knew how to game plan against the Eagles in a way to put his team in a position to win the game. On paper, the Falcons defense looks average at best according to NFL standards. A good coach knows how to bring out the best in his team so they can perform at their best on game day. On Monday Night, Dan Quinn may have been more excited during the game at how his team played overall than anyone else.  That positive attitude is infectious and gives his players the confidence knowing this man is interested in them being successful.

With the Jets we saw a team with discipline that executed well on both sides of the ball.  This team played for each other, putting the interests of winning the game ahead of individual achievements. There are many talented players who are top tier at their position who went out of their way to use their experience and skills to better the team.  The Jets played as a cohesive unit and even when the coaches had to talk to players about mistakes, those players are receptive to instruction.

In life, the leadership sets the standards for those they work with and the NFL is no exception. Good coaches know how to uplift their players, put them in a position to do their best work and create a positive environment for success. Time will tell how Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn do in the long run, but week one is a positive sign of what the future holds for those coaches and their teams.

2015 NFL preview: NFC North

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC North:

Chicago Bears

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Packers; 11/1 vs Vikings; 11/22 vs Bronocs; 12/6 vs 49ers; 12/27 @ Buccaneers

Synopsis: Interesting changes have come to the Chicago Bears this offseason with the hiring of new Head Coach John Fox and departure of Pro Bowl Wide Receiver Brandon Marshall.  Fox will be overseeing a team that has talent but some major weak points. The defense is led by a strong group of linebackers with Jared Allen, Jonathan Bostic, and Lamarr Houston. The question is the strength and depth of their defensive line.  The defensive line is very important in a 3-4 defense because those lineman are responsible for engaging the offensive lineman in order for the Linebackers to run free in pursuit of the ball carrier and collapse the pocket around the opposing Quarterback.

The Bears offense does features a Pro Bowl Running Back in Matt Forte along with dynamic Wide Receiver Alson Jeffry. Despite the talented weapons on offense, starting Quarterback Jay Cutler is still an enigma; great physical skills but not the best decision maker. Whether the Bears make the playoffs or not rests solely on whether the offense can avoid making costly mistakes and if the defense can play up to their talent.  

Detroit Lions

2015 Projected Record: 9-7

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Chargers; 9/20 @ Vikings; 9/27 vs Broncos; 10/11 vs Cardinals; 11/1 @ Chiefs; 11/26 vs Eagles; 1/3 @ Bears

Synopsis: There is no question the Detroit Lions have a talented roster heading into the 2015 season.  A high powered offense headlined by Pro Bowl Quarterback Matthew Stafford and All-Pro Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson are complimented by solid, well-constructed defense that includes Linebacker DeAndre Levy and Defensive End Ezekiel Ansah.

The Lions, though, will have to navigate a difficult schedule if they are to get into the playoffs.  Three of their first three games of the season are difficult matchups away from home (Chargers, Vikings and Seahawks).  Furthermore the schedule they have in December is brutal with divisional rival game versus the Packers followed by two weeks of difficult matchups at St. Louis and at New Orleans.  This team has the talent to be a playoff contender, but their schedule will not make it easy on them.

Green Bay Packers

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Bears; 9/20 vs Seahawks; 10/18 vs Chargers; 11/1 @ Broncos; 12/3 @ Lions

Synopsis: The Green Bay Packers have starting at Quarterback arguably the best player at his position: Aaron Rodgers. I know the Packers will be without their top Wide Receiver Jordy Nelson for the season but this offense is still high octane. Wide Receivers Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are both dynamic playmakers who are complimented by the power running game of Running Back Eddie Lacy. The key will be defensive performance by an underrated unit led by Defensive Lineman BJ Raji and Linebacker Clay Matthews. If the Packers defense can hold up against high powered opponents such as Chargers, Broncos, Lions, and Cowboys than this team can set themselves up for a run at the Super Bowl

Minnesota Vikings

2015 Projected Record: 9-7

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Lions; 9/27 vs Chargers; 11/8 vs Rams; 12/6 vs Seahawks; 1/3 @ Packers

Synopsis: The Minnesota Vikings enter 2015 with a rested and ready to go Adrian Peterson at Running Back. Peterson is considered the best Running Back in the NFL and will be a great compliment for second year starting Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  The Vikings have constructed a solid roster on the offensive side to support Bridgewater and I expect the young Quarterback to exceed many expectations this season.

Meanwhile the Vikings defense is an underrated unit that is a solid mix of talented veterans and dynamic young athletes.  This team will be challenged throughout the 2015 season as they will be matching up with six teams boasting high scoring offenses (Lions, Chargers, Broncos, Packers, Falcons, and Giants).  The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint; if the Vikings can be consistent throughout the year they have a chance at making the playoffs.