Top 4 Takeaway Thoughts after NFL Week 4 Games

With the first quarter of the 2015 NFL season in the books, here are some of my takeaway thoughts after Week 4:

1. Too many Mediocre Kickers in the NFL.

The bizarre trend started on Thursday night when Josh Scobee of the Pittsburgh Steelers missed two Field Goals at the end of the game, allowing the Baltimore Ravens chances to tie and win the game.  Twenty-four hours later, the Steelers released Scobee and signed Chris Boswell to be their new Kicker.

 On Sunday the Philadelphia Eagles had Caleb Sturgis as their Kicker with Cody Parkey out for the season with a groin injury; Sturgis went on to miss a field goal attempt and an extra point attempt. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kicker Kyle Brindza went 1 for 3 on Field Goal attempts this past Sunday AND missed an extra point; he is only hitting on 50 percent of his field goals in 2015.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had two opportunities to win their game versus the Colts on Sunday, but their Kicker Jason Myers missed both Field Goal attempts.

On the flip side veterans of over ten plus years in the league Adam Vinateri, Robbie Gould and Sebastian Janikowski are consistent every year, averaging over 80 percent accuracy for their careers.  Also Atlanta Falcons have Matt Bryant and the Baltimore Ravens have Justin Tucker, both reliable kickers their teams know they can depend on.  Furthermore the Denver Broncos Brandon McManus is the team’s third full time place Kicker in the last ten years, all three of those kickers have a career average of over 70 percent accuracy.

The truth is that with the way the game is played in the NFL in 2015 Kickers are under-valued and teams are not doing a good enough job at evaluating talent or preparing their Kickers for Game Day.  The Steelers, Eagles, and Jaguars all lost on Sunday no thanks to their Kickers but none of these teams learned from the history of these players.  I always find it ironic when teams assume a guy will play different for their team because of the player’s “talent”.  With so many kickers in the NFL missing extra points and field goals, it is becoming ugly and teams need to do a better job at scouting along with development of their Kickers.

2. Devonta Freeman has “Wally Pip’ed” Tevin Coleman in Atlanta.

Coming into the 2015 season there was a battle in training camp for the Atlanta Falcons starting Running Back position.  Devonta Freeman coming into his 2^nd season after being drafted out of Florida State put up lackluster performances during the Pre-season leading to Rookie RB Tevin Coleman being named the starter.  But Coleman got injured opening the door for Freeman to get an opportunity to start the last two weeks.  Freeman has scored three rushing touchdowns in each game and compiled 342 Total Yards from scrimmage in two games.

Hall of Fame Yankees First Baseman Lou Gehrig was a “nobody” until starting First Baseman Wally Pipp took a day off due to a “migraine headache”. Gehrig would then go on to start 2,130 games in a row for the Yankees.   While I am not saying Devonta Freeman will be a Hall of Fame Running Back, I think it is fair to assume that Freeman has a strangle hold on the starting Running back position in Atlanta.  Coleman is a rookie, he is going to have to wait his turn when he returns from injury as that starting position is no longer exclusively his anymore.

3. The Eagles and Dolphins are a mess for a good reason.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins are 1-3 after Week Four of the 2015 NFL season for a good reason.  Neither team has learned from the past.  Both teams have been down this path before, having an offseason of big talent acquisitions then start the season playing underwhelming football.  The reality is, that building a team through free agency and trades rarely equals success.  You cannot buy wins and championships in the NFL.  If you could then the Washington Redskins would be a dynasty by now.

The Eagles have tried to build a team by unloading most of the players from the previous head coach and bringing in players Chip Kelly believes are good fit for his program.  But instead of building a team, he is trying to “plug and play” players as parts in a machine.  The Eagles have made the mistake, like many before, of overlooking the fundamentals of the game in order to be on the “cutting edge”.  The Eagles have seemingly regressed the last couple years as their Head Coach has unloaded talent and not replaced them with comparable skill players.  Spending a lot of money does not equal wins; it just means Byron Maxwell and Demarco Murray got paid for past performances.

The Dolphins have had roster turnover every year since Head Coach Joe Philbin arrived in Miami.  Instead of building a team around Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins have been swapping in and out players like pieces of a jig-saw puzzle looking for the “right combination”.  They dish out big money for Defensive Lineman Ndamukong Suh but they let reliable players such as Wide receiver Brian Hartline and Defensive Lineman Jared Odrick leave.  The team has played underwhelming on offense and defense in 2015.

I have said this numerous times: teams cannot buy championships or fabricate chemistry.  No team in NFL history has ever had great success with this formula yet the Dolphins and Eagles insist that it can work.  I remember someone asked about the arrogance of Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly and ineptitude of Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin in recent weeks; it appears both adjectives might be true looking at how 2015 has played out.

4. The Broncos, Panthers and Packers are undefeated in 2015 thanks to defense.

We have been inundated by the media for years about how a team needs a “franchise Quarterback” in order to win in the NFL.  Quarterback is one of the most important position in all of sports, I do not disagree, but Football is still a team sport and the unit must work together in order to win.  While Peyton Manning is a future Hall of Famer, Cam Newton is one of the most talented players in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the top Quarterback in the NFL, all of these teams are winning games thanks to the efforts of their defenses.

The Packers and Panthers defenses have only allowed a total of 71 points against in 4 games this season, an average of 17.8 points per game against.  Meanwhile the Broncos have allowed only 69 points against, an average of 17.3 points per game against.  These three teams are among the top defenses in the NFL in 2015 and after the first quarter of the season they deserve recognition.  Peyton Manning has looked subpar based on his own standards, Cam Newton has a below average group of receivers, and Aaron Rodgers has injuries to his Wide Receivers.  These Pro Bowl Quarterbacks can thank their defenses for coming to their aid to help their teams win games.

By the way, do you know the team that has allowed the least number of points against so far in 2015? The New York Jets with a 3-1 win-loss record have allowed a total of 55 points against, an average in 4 games of 13.8 points per game against.  In the era of high powered offenses and Quarterbacks getting paid multi-million dollar contracts, the old adage of “Defense wins championships” still carries weight.

New NFL Head Coaches and Their Unexpected Success

Every offseason, no matter the team sport, there are coaches fired and new ones hired.  The hope of these franchises is that these new leaders can put the team in a position to win games and be a successful organization on and off the field. But success is not always an automatic result with a new Head Coach. Some coaches are not right organizational or roster fit while others are not best prepared for the role they are undertaking.

During Week One of the 2015 NFL regular season we saw three new Head Coaches get wins in their first game who many expected to lose opening week. These men are looking to bring change in their new organizations and a winning culture back to franchises whose fan bases who feel like playoff success is a distant memory. Ironically, in an age of high powered offenses, all three of these head coaches come from defensive backgrounds.  I am speaking of Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn.  Let us dig a little deeper into each situation.

-Rex Ryan, Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have not been to the playoffs in over 15 years, since Doug Flutie had his career resurrected in northern New York.  The Bills have shuffled through multiple Quarterbacks and Head Coaches; they have been on the short end of multiple poor roster moves and draft choices for years. The Bills needed a head coach who was more than just a good qualified candidate. They needed a man who could change the culture in Buffalo.  In hiring Rex Ryan, the Bills gained a Head Coach who changed the attitudes and expectations of another franchise, a coach who has shown consistency as a defensive coach with great defenses.

In week one the Buffalo Bills won a game against a team led by one of the top five Quarterbacks in the NFL. They did not just win their game versus Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Bills executed well in all facets of offense and defense. With starting Quarterback Tyrod Taylor the Bills offense displayed a solid balance between running and passing attacks as Taylor was composed, leading the team on productive possessions over and over again.  On the defensive side, the team kept frustrating the Colts offense, putting them in difficult situations while pressuring the Quarterback multiple times.

The Bills have the opportunity to build on their week one success as they head into another tough matchup versus the Patriots. The positive is that it is another game being playing at home so they will have the crowd behind them.  Rex Ryan has captained teams to the playoffs before and this Bills team may be the most talented offense he has ever worked with.  As a defensive minded coach, Ryan takes the most pride in his defenses so we can expect the Bills to continue to execute each week and frustrate many offenses.

-Dan Quinn, Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons

Some people were surprised when Dan Quinn got the job with the Atlanta Falcons.  Not because he wasn’t a qualified or good candidate, but other “big names” were considered for the job. According to reports, Quinn was the Falcons number one choice because of the organization he was coming from. Quinn has spent four of the last six seasons on the Seattle Seahawks coaching staff, a franchise that has played in two straight Super Bowls and been a consistent winner for the last few years.

The Falcons have experienced sporadic success over the last 18 years with three trips to the NFC Championship game and a Super Bowl appearance. But this playoff success has not been consistent under the leadership of any previous head coaches. The Falcons win over the Philadelphia Eagles in week one of the season displayed something that has been missing from Atlanta for years: a defense that executes consistently.  With Quarterback Matt Ryan no one denies the Falcons ability to put up points offensively from week to week; it is the defense that has been left with the big question mark hanging over it. Slowing down a potent Eagles offense was a big step forward for the Falcons.

Maintaining playoff success is always predicated on a team’s ability to execute on both offense and defense. If the Falcons can maintain their level of play and even improve it as the season goes along, they could be playoff bound.  Dan Quinn knows what it takes for a team to be a successful franchise and he is incorporating that down in Atlanta.

-Todd Bowles, Head Coach of the New York Jets

This will be the fourth straight head coach the New York Jets have hired with a defensive background. Each coach has come with different strengths to the Jets, but Todd Bowles is different in the fact he already has some head coaching experience.

Todd has served as an interim Head Coach on two different occasions so he is familiar with the management responsibilities of the job.  In the Jets week one win, their defense was very good and the offense ran the ball efficiently. Some may say that has nothing to do with Bowles since these are “Rex Ryan’s players” and the Cleveland Browns were without their starting Quarterback for most of the game.

The truth is that Todd Bowles has changed the attitude of the Jets on and off the field.  Bowles has gotten both veterans and young players to buy into the team concept.  Under previous head coaches the team was coached by disciplinarians or coaches players liked so much they wanted to hang out with “the boss”. Todd does a great job of balancing between structure and discipline along with creating a positive environment and locker room players want to be in.

Having the right attitude for a team is more than just one or two aspects; it is more than just chemistry, coaching style, and organizational structure.  Success is bred from example and the one who sets that example is the leader. In the NFL the Head Coach sets the standard for the entire organization.  The Head Coach is the face of the team in front of the public and media. A Head Coach has to know how to handle players and put them in a position to be successful.

In week one of the 2015 NFL season we saw these three men bring out the best in their teams and put them in a position to win games. In Buffalo, we see Rex Ryan taking a defense with talented players and make them a cohesive unit that executes well from down to down.  Also, Ryan is a confidence builder who gave Tyrod Taylor the vote of confidence as the starting Quarterback. That confidence from the Head Coach allowed Taylor to have the repetitions in practice to be able to excel on game day and that confidence from the top filters down to the other players on the team.

In Atlanta, we saw a defense that was able to hold a high powered Eagles offensive in check for most of the game. That can be directly correlated with their Head Coach, Dan Quinn, who knew how to game plan against the Eagles in a way to put his team in a position to win the game. On paper, the Falcons defense looks average at best according to NFL standards. A good coach knows how to bring out the best in his team so they can perform at their best on game day. On Monday Night, Dan Quinn may have been more excited during the game at how his team played overall than anyone else.  That positive attitude is infectious and gives his players the confidence knowing this man is interested in them being successful.

With the Jets we saw a team with discipline that executed well on both sides of the ball.  This team played for each other, putting the interests of winning the game ahead of individual achievements. There are many talented players who are top tier at their position who went out of their way to use their experience and skills to better the team.  The Jets played as a cohesive unit and even when the coaches had to talk to players about mistakes, those players are receptive to instruction.

In life, the leadership sets the standards for those they work with and the NFL is no exception. Good coaches know how to uplift their players, put them in a position to do their best work and create a positive environment for success. Time will tell how Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn do in the long run, but week one is a positive sign of what the future holds for those coaches and their teams.

2015 NFL Preview : NFC South

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC South:

Atlanta Falcons

2015 Projected Record: 10-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/14 vs Eagles; 9/20 @ Giants; 9/27 @ Cowboys; 10/15 @ Saints; 11/22 vs Colts; 12/13 @ Panthers

Synopsis: In 2015 the Atlanta Falcons are looking for a bounce back year under new Head Coach Dan Quinn.  Before the season the Falcons made upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines but their defensive secondary is still questionable.  Also the Running Back position looks to be in flux as neither Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman have done much to set themselves apart to solidify the starter at that position.  But the team still has Matt Ryan at Quarterback, one of the best at his position in the NFL.

The Falcons have a brutal start to their regular season schedule with games against high powered offenses (Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys) and then a top ten defense (Texans).  If the Falcons can survive the tough stretches of their schedule, they should be able to make the playoffs in 2015.

Carolina Panthers

2015 Projected Record: 6-10

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Texans; 9/27 vs Saints; 11/15 @ Titans; 12/13 vs Falcons; 12/20 @ Giants

Synopsis: The Carolina Panthers have two major obstacles going into the 2015 NFL season: a depleted unit on offense and a tough schedule in which they play nine potential playoff teams.  While their defense will be solid, I question if their offense will be able to keep up when they face high powered offenses such as the Saints, Eagles, Packers, Colts, Cowboys, and Falcons. Their starting Quarterback Cam Newton is very talented but the Panthers have average talent at the Wide Receiver and Offensive Guard positions.

This team lacks the depth to overcome any more injuries, especially on the offensive line. Outside of Michael Oher and Ryan Kalil, the Panthers do not have the talent up front to consistently protect their Quarterback or open lanes for their running backs.  Also, outside of Pro Bowl Tight End Greg Olsen, Newtown has very few dynamic offensive players around him.  This season may be a setback year for the Panthers.

New Orleans Saints

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Cardinals; 10/4 vs Cowboys; 10/11 @ Eagles; 11/29 @ Texans; 12/21 vs Lions; 1/3 @ Falcons

Synopsis: The New Orleans Saints made a major move this offseason by trading away Pro Bowl Tight End Jimmy Graham to acquire Pro Bowl Center Max Unger.  Shoring up the offensive line was a big deal for the Saints with their offense functionality predicated on protecting the Quarterback. The additions to the defense will help the Saints as they navigate through the NFC on their way to the playoffs. The toughest task will be winning on the road as they play at five potential playoff teams (Eagles, Cardinals, Colts, Texans and Falcons). Home field advantage has been a big factor in past Saints’ success during the regular season and postseason, so winning on the road may make or break this team in 2015.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Titans; 9/27 @ Texans; 10/25 @ Redskins; 11/8 vs Giants; 12/6 vs Falcons

Synopsis: At first glance, the 2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster has a lot of talent on offense:  Dynamic Wide Receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans along with Pro Bowl caliber Running Back Doug Martin.  The defense roster looks like a typical Lovie Smith constructed team, with depth and talent at every position. 

Smith, the Bucs Head Coach, has two major hurdles to juggle this season. The first and foremost is his rookie starting Quarterback Jameis Winston.  Winston is the 2015 number one overall NFL Draft choice and after winning a Heisman Trophy along with a National Title in College, expectations are high.  Probably too high honestly.  Winston has talent, no one can deny that much; but what he does lack is maturity.  While in college he exhibited multiple issues on and off the field.  Winston’s development is not just important in 2015, but necessary for Smith to keep his job for the long term.

The second issue for Lovie Smith to handle in 2015 is a schedule that is littered with difficult matchups, from top 15 defenses (Rams and Texans) to high powered offenses (Eagles, Saints, Cowboys, Colts, and Giants), There will be games the Buccaneers will just be out matched in.

2014 NFL Draft: Top 3 Things To Watch For

The first round of the NFL Draft will be here in just a couple days and I want to prepare you for what to watch for (without having to  watch twenty Pre-Draft specials on TV!).  Here are Three Things to Keep an Eye out for in the 2014 NFL Draft:

 

1. The Johnny Manziel Effect

This year’s class of Quarterbacks are not considered “Franchise Quarterbacks” but there is still many quality and talented signal callers.  Texas A&M Quarterback and Trendy Superstart Johnny Manziel is the domino that will affect all the other quarterbacks in this draft.  Projections are that Manziel could go as high as the 2^nd overall pick all the way down to 26^th overall!  Many teams are in need of a Quarterback: Jacksonville Jaquars, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals and the St Louis Rams are considering drafting a QB.  Now there are 3 players who are projected as potential 1^st round selections: Manziel, Blake Bortles, and Teddy Bridgewater.  But there are a slew of guys who project as productive starting Quarterbacks in the NFL: AJ McCarron, Andy Murray, Derek Carr, Zack Mettenberger, Connor Shaw, and Jimmy Garoppolo.  So the reality is that there is depth at the Quarterback position in this draft and teams do not HAVE to take a QB in the 1^st round, allowing for the potential for Manziel, Bortles and Bridgewater to be waiting around while teams load up on talent at other positions.

 

2. Excellent Depth at Multiple Positions

Extending what is discussed above is the fact that no matter what your favorite team needs, there are multiple players available that project to be successful in the NFL.  A team like the New York Giants needs help on the defensive line.  You look at the list of Defensive Tackle and Defensive End prospects, I count ten DT’s and fourteen DE’s that could become productive NFL players!  So do the Giants have to draft a Defensive Lineman in the first round?  No, they can be selective and pick who they think is the best fit for their team.  The Tennessee Titans need to draft the Running Back of the future with the departure of Chris Johnson.  Looking at the list of Running Back prospects, I see the potential of SEVENTEEN guys who could be productive NFL players.  So if your favorite team doesn’t draft a specific need in the first round, don’t freak out, there is depth of talent to go around this year.

 

3. Draft Position Movement

Every year in the NFL Draft there are teams that trade pick slots to move up and down.  This year will be exceptionally interesting because there is a handful of player that are coveted by teams.  You have teams like the Buffalo Bills, Atlanta Falcons and Washington Redskins who have a dearth of picks so they may be open to moving down to accumulate picks in a very deep talent draft.  You also have those teams that make an extreme move up or down the draft all predicated on whether a specific prospect is available or was already drafted.  For example, when the Atlanta Falcons back in 2011 moved up to 6^th overall to select Julio Jones the Falcons gave up a boat load of picks to move up.  But the Falcons believed that Jones was worth giving up all of those picks.  On the other side of that coin was the San Diego Chargers in 2001 when they traded away the 1^st overall pick and with the picks they got in return, they drafted two future Hall of Famers: Drew Brees and LaDainian Tomlinson.