2015 College Football Preview: Big 12 Conference

The 2015 College Football Season begins this week and this will be the second year of the College Football Four-Team Playoff format.  This week I will be giving my preview of the major teams and players to watch for in 2015.  One of the elements that makes the College game so exciting is the unpredictability. There’s no preseason, always new players coming in as freshman, and past players leaving via graduation or early exit for the NFL.  Also, I enjoy watching College Football for the many different styles of offenses and defenses run on the field each week.  Unlike the NFL in which only a few different schemes are utilized each week, the College ranks over the last few decades have seen so many variants of styles and we the viewers have seen some of the greatest players succeed with these unique game plans.

Today I will highlight teams to watch from the Big 12 Football Conference:

University of Texas

2015 Projected Record: 6-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-0

Make or Break Games: 9/5 @ Notre Dame, 9/19 vs Cal; 10/3 @ TCU; 10/10 vs Oklahoma; 11/14 @ West Virginia; 12/5 @ Baylor

Synopsis: Entering his second season at Texas, Head Coach Charlie Strong has to lead his team through one of the toughest schedules in the nation.  If playing Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana wasn’t enough, Texas gets to host one of the top offenses in the nation in California a couple weeks later.  Then that brutal inter-conference schedule: Having to travel to play at TCU, at West Virginia, and at Baylor.  What Texas has going for them is a young, but very talented defensive unit headlined by freshman Malik Jefferson who is a special player at Linebacker.  I am unsure if Texas has the offensive firepower to keep up with their competition, especially if the games turn into shootouts.  Time will tell if starting Quarterback Tyronne Swoopes is up for the challenge.

University of Oklahoma

2015 Projected Record: 8-4

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/12 @ Tennessee; 10/10 vs Texas; 10/24 vs Texas Tech; 11/14 @ Baylor; 11/21 vs TCU; 11/28 @ Oklahoma State

Synopsis: Oklahoma has a name that demands respect in the college football world for years, but this year they may have too much to overcome.  We know the offense will be talented with Baker Mayfield at Quarterback and Freshman Running Back Joe Mixon.  But the defense is still young and lacks depth at certain positions, leaving Oklahoma susceptible when facing high powered offenses like Baylor, TCU, and don’t discount that Texas Tech game.  Mayfield, who transferred to Oklahoma from Texas Tech, will have the luxury of facing his old school on the Oklahoma home field.  But don’t assume that equals a win that day because Mayfield was recruited by Texas Tech and his old coaches may make him look bad.

Texas Tech University

2015 Projected Record: 8-4

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/19 @ Arkansas; 9/26 vs TCU; 10/3 vs Baylor; 11/24 @ Oklahoma; 11/7 @ West Virginia; 11/26 @ Texas

Synopsis: While Texas Tech is still rebuilding through recruiting missteps after the saga that ended the Mike Leech era in Lubbock, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury has many talented pieces to work with on both sides of the ball.  While not announcing who the starting Quarterback will be, both Davis Webb and Patrick Mahomes showed last season they can run this high powered offense.  While their defense is still suspect in terms of depth, they are getting better.  This season’s team will give inter-conference opponents trouble because it’s another full season for players in Kingsbury offensive system.  Senior Wide Receiver Jakeem Grant is poised for a breakout season while Texas Tech is setting up to walk away with some up upset victories in 2015.

Baylor University

2015 Projected Record: 10-2

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 10/3 vs Texas Tech; 11/5 @ Kansas State; 11/21 @ Oklahoma State; 11/27 @ TCU

Synopsis: In Baylor’s 56-21 win last night over SMU we got to see what makes this team so good: talented starting Quarterback in Seth Russell with dynamic wide receivers and an underrated running game opening up the offense for the Baylor Bears.  But we also saw the underwhelming defense that is Baylor’s weakness coming into the 2015 season.  No offense to SMU, but this game was closer than it should have been early on.  It is obvious that this team will have another season averaging around 40 points scored per game, but can their defense slow down high powered offenses such as Texas Tech and TCU?  I do not expect Baylor to be winning the Big 12 championship when three of Baylor’s final five games this season are on the road against tough inter-conference opponents.

University of West Virginia

2015 Projected Record: 9-3

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 10/3 @ Oklahoma; 10/17 @ Baylor; 10/29 @ TCU; 12/5 @ Kansas State

Synopsis:  Never did I ever expect the day to come I would to say or write the following: West Virginia may have the best defense in the Big 12 Conference.  The West Virginia Mountaineers have for years before known for their offensive skill players, only sending one major defensive NFL prospect to the profession ranks in the last several years.  But with eight returning starters on defense, a unit that includes Safety Karl Joseph, Linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, and Cornerback Daryl Worley, West Virginia has a chance to be the foil of the Big 12 power teams in 2015.  Also don’t forget about the two headed running attack lead by Running Backs. Rushel Shell and Wendell Smallwood have the chance to frustrate many opponents who lack the linebacker depth to compensate.  The biggest question in Morgantown is if Junior Quarterback Skyler Howard is ready to be the starting Quarterback for a full season after spot duty last season?

Texas Christian University

2015 Projected Record: 11-1

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/26 @ Texas Tech; 10/29 vs West Virginia; 11/21 @ Oklahoma; 11/27 vs Baylor

Synopsis: Entering the 2015 College Football season as the number two ranked team in the country, TCU has come a long way under Head Coach Gary Patterson.  Several years ago TCU was playing in a mid-level conference causing National upsets with great defense and an underrated offense.  This year the script has flipped with a high powered offense led by starting Quarterback Trevone Boykin, who is considered an early front runner for the Heisman Trophy.  The defense is not at the caliber of past TCU teams and that is what may be the tripping point for Gary Patterson’s team who is on a mission to be the Big 12 Conference champions and get into this year’s College Football Final Four Playoff.  Matchups with high powered offenses like Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Baylor will be major tests of TCU’s defensive depth and efficiency.

Geno Smith's Injury May Best for New York Jets

On Tuesday, New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith got into an altercation in the locker room and suffered a broken jaw at the hands of now released IK Enemkpali.  Whatever the reasoning was behind the altercation, many Jets fans are panicking, to which I say, why?  Yes this is the third draft pick from 2013 to miss time this season (along with Defensive Lineman Sheldon Richardson and Cornerback Dee Milliner) but this is by no means a “loss” for the Jets franchise.  Note I used the term “franchise” and not “team”; I did that because this may be the best thing that could happen for the New York Jets.

While I feel some empathy for Geno Smith, the reality is that he has been a below average Quarterback in his time in the NFL and has not lived up to the hype given him coming out of the University of West Virginia.  In my eyes, I never understood the hype for a guy with average arm talent, above average athleticism and average Football IQ.  Furthermore, the Jets organization has not shown real faith in Smith’s abilities to be the starting QB when they brought in Michael Vick to compete for the starting job last season and then in the 2015 NFL Draft selecting University of Baylor QB Bryce Petty.  Smith has not shown the ability on or off the field to validate his standing as the Jets starting Quarterback.

Let’s go even deeper by highlighting why this is good for the New York Jets that Smith will miss 6-10 weeks with this injury:

1. Your Starting Quarterback is now Ryan Fitzpatrick

Some Jets fan may forget who Ryan Fitzpatrick is and I understand that, since Fitzpatrick is not a household name among many sports fans.  Fitzpatrick has started 89 games from 2005 through 2014 in the NFL, amassing 19,273 passing yards, 123 passing Touchdowns, and a completion percentage of 60.2%.  On top of that, for his career against the Jets (most of these stats he compiled as starter for Buffalo Bills) he has thrown for 1,477 yards along with 12 Touchdowns and 7 interceptions.  In comparison, Geno Smith in two seasons has a career completion percentage of 57.5% and thrown 25 touchdowns versus 34 interceptions.  If we go solely by the numbers, one would choose Fitzpatrick over Smith to start at Quarterback.

If we dig even deeper, one will find that Fitzpatrick is a graduate of Harvard University and scored one of the highest scores in the NFL Combine IQ Exam, The Wonderlic Test.  Fitzpatrick is more than capable of being a starting NFL Quarterback and is better suited for the role than Smith.

2. Your Quarterback of the future is Bryce Petty, not Geno Smith

Petty, who was drafted by the Jets this year, has a higher potential ceiling than Smith.  Petty who played at Baylor University, has a great arm, good Football IQ, and is an above average athlete.  Yes he comes from a spread offense and still needs time to learn how to read NFL style defenses, but it is better he learn this while watching Fitzpatrick play than Smith stumble along.  Petty has garnered comparisons by scouts to Tommy Maddox; many people forget how talented Maddox was before injuries derailed his career.  If that scout’s analogy lays true then Petty has a bright future in the NFL and that is good news for the New York Jets and their fans.

3. Allows the Jets an out to not bring back Smith after 2015

The New York Jets have a Déjà vu situation on their hands with Smith missing at least half the season with this injury.  In 2013 when Mark Sanchez was out for the season due to a shoulder injury, the Jets were able to give newly drafted Geno Smith extended playing time, opening the door for them to have an excuse to not bring back Sanchez and move forward with their new future Quarterback, who at that time was Smith.  Sanchez was able to exit New York and landed in Philadelphia, allowing the Jets to fully invest in Smith as the future of the franchise without the previous first round draft pick Sanchez lurking in the wings.

Fast forward to 2015, with Smith’s mediocre two seasons in a Jets uniform as indication of a probable failed investment, this latest incident gives the Jets opportunity to move forward without the burden of another season with the cloud of Geno Smith’s unreached potential hanging over the organization.  Smith has not been the Quarterback on the field or leader of the field the Jets need and there is no better time than the present for them to start planning for a future without him on their roster.