Showing posts with label AFC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFC. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Diagnosis and Solution for Nine NFL teams 0-2 after Week Two

After Week Two of the 2015 NFL season there are nine teams off to a 0-2 start. Many of these teams had pre-season expectations to make the playoffs. So what went wrong between August 1st and September 22nd? Reality hit that being “good on paper” does not equal success on the football field.

So I am going to look at each of these 0-2 teams like a doctor: analyze the symptoms, diagnose the problem, and give a solution/prescription to turn things around.  So let’s get started:


Baltimore Ravens
Symptoms: The Ravens have been playing inconsistent each of the first two weeks.  In week one they limit the Broncos offense and future Hall of Fame Quarterback Peyton Manning to under 20 points then the next week the defense allows 37 points from a Raiders team full of young players. As a team they rank in the lower half of the league in almost every offensive statistical category.

Diagnosis: Injuries at key positions are hurting the Ravens. All-Pro Linebacker Terrell Suggs is out for the season, Pro Bowl Tight End Dennis Pitta is on the Physically Unable to Perform list, starting Offensive Tackle Eugene Monroe is out with a concussion, and rookie Wide Receiver Breshard Perriman is recovering from a knee injury. As a result, the team has been playing guys at these positions who are not at the same level of skill as the injured starters.

Solution: The Ravens do not have a plethora of high skilled players starting at every position. They cannot get away with being the most talented team on the field each week. This team needs to get back to what has served them well in the past, which is being physical on both sides of the ball. If they can physically impose their will on opponents they can win ball games. Neither of their first two losses were blowouts, both games came down to final possessions, so they must execute better in crunch time.
But having to “turn on a switch” and play a certain way at the end of games is a lot harder when the team hasn’t been playing well throughout the game. Starting in the 1st quarter of each game the team needs to impose their will and game plan on their opponents then carry that momentum throughout the rest of the game.


Houston Texans
Symptoms: On paper the Houston Texans are one of the most talented defenses in the NFL. Yet they have allowed their first two opponents this season to score 24 points and 27 points in consecutive weeks. This is facing offenses with limited offensive skill players so it would be assumed that a team as talented as the Texans should be able to slow opponents down. Also, Texans have started two different Quarterbacks in both of their games this season.

Diagnosis: The problem is execution. There is no reason why a defense like this should allow a talented Tight End such as Travis Kelce to be so wide open and be able to score two receiving touchdowns. There is no reason why Panthers Quarterback Cam Newton should not be under pressure when he is the most dangerous player on the opposing offense. Also, after the first two weeks the Texans passing offense is top 12 in the NFL in passing yards per game and has 28 first downs on passing plays. Yet they are only averaging 18.5 points per game and their 3rd down conversion rate is a lowly 24 percent.

Solution: The defense needs to stop leaning on All-Pro Defensive lineman JJ Watt. Yes, he is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, but one man cannot do everything. Football is a team game and the other players on the Texans defense need to step up and handle their assignments on every play. On offense, this team needs to balance their attack. They are running double the passing plays versus running plays; they need to be more committed to the running game and not leave so much pressure on the passing attack to convert on 3rd downs to keep drives going.


Indianapolis Colts
Symptoms: The Colts have been outscored on the season 47-21 versus teams who when you combine their rosters only have two players on offense who have been Pro Bowl selections. Neither Quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor nor Ryan Fitzpatrick are overly difficult to game plan against. Also the Colts offense is bottom in the NFL ranks in turnovers in 2015.

Diagnosis: The Colts offensive and defensive lines have played poorly in their first two games. Neither side of the ball is gaining leverage against the opposition and these guys are being pushed around almost every play. I do not care how great Quarterback Andrew Luck is, or how talented his receivers are. If the offensive line does not hold their blocking assignments, this offense will keep looking putrid. On the flip side, the defensive front is not getting consistent pressure on the opposing offense, leaving the back end of the defense to be taken advantage of from down to down. Opposing offenses are averaging 343 total yards of offense versus Colts in 2015.

Solution: The offensive and defensive lineman need to do their jobs better or this team will continue to flounder. The men in the trenches are the foundation of success for any winning franchise. It doesn’t matter how talented the Quarterback and Wide Receivers are on paper. Poor execution leads to opponents having the upper hand and then the team starts pressing because they are behind on the score board. The Colts need to get back to the fundamentals of football. They signed Running Back Frank Gore for a reason and I am sure it wasn’t to just block for Andrew Luck.  They need to stop being afraid to attack on defense, especially when you have guys like Trent Cole and Robert Mathis on the roster. The Colts have to impose their game plan on opponents in order to win games. This finesse style of game play the last two weeks certainly isn’t working.


New York Giants
Symptoms: For two straight weeks the Giants have held the lead in games in the 4th quarter, mismanaged their offense, then allowed opponents to get the ball back on offense at end of the game and score touchdowns. The Giants are outscoring teams 37-23 through first 3 quarters; in the 4th quarter opponents are outscoring the Giants 28-10!

Diagnosis: The Giants are not finishing games with the right attitude. Instead of playing the way they did the first 3 quarters all the way until the end, in the 4th quarter, they are playing overly conservative in effort to “maintain the lead” and “not make mistakes”.  A problem in sports is whenever a team or player is worried about making a mistake, those problems manifest themselves during the game and then the worry becomes the nightmare facing them.

Solution: The Giants need to stop letting up on the gas pedal when entering the 4th quarter. They need to be in attack mode all game long, not just 75 percent of the game.  They need to treat the scoreboard like no lead is safe and they have to keep attacking opponents on offense while allowing their defense to continue being aggressive until the final seconds go off the clock. They can lay back when the game is over, not in the fourth quarter.


Philadelphia Eagles
Symptoms: The Eagles offense is averaging only 17 points per game and statistically have the worst rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 35 rushing yards per game.  Meanwhile opponents are averaging 377 total yards per game and the Eagles defense pressure on the opposing Quarterback is so bad they have only one sack in 2015.

Diagnosis: The Eagles are not just playing poorly, but are misusing players on both sides of the ball. Running Back Demarco Murray is a “North-South” power runner who is great running between the tackles. The Eagles keep trying to run him on stretch plays and hand offs out of shotgun. Byron Maxwell did his best work as a Cornerback in Seattle playing a specific side of the field, not matched up on the opponent’s top receiver all game long. While Wide Receiver Jordan Matthews does his best work on slants and deep comeback pattern passing plays, the Eagles keep running him on deep outs and crossing pick passing plays. Linebacker Connor Barwin is great at blitzing the Quarterback on 3rd down and stopping running plays and screen plays as a power player. Eagles keep sending him into coverage on multiple downs.

Solution: The Eagles coaches need to utilize their players based on their skill sets instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. If Chip Kelly is as great a football mind as people claim, he will know how to customize his game plans based around his player’s strengths instead of asking them to run plays they are outside of their comfort zones. Allow the talent on this roster to do what they are best at, then you will have a chance to win ball games.


Detroit Lions
Symptoms: The Lions are in the bottom half of the league in points per game, rush yards per game, total yards per game and 3rd down conversation percentage. Their offense has been inconsistent despite all the talent they have on the roster.  Also, opponents are averaging 29.5 points per game versus the Lions.

Diagnosis: The Lions have built their team around the Pro Bowl Quarterback Matthew Stafford with talented players such as Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, and Amir Abdullah. But the offensive play calling has been unbalanced. The running game has been so rough that the team’s second leading rusher so far this season is their Quarterback Stafford. Which highlights the other issue. The offensive line is not getting enough leverage at the snap of the ball, allowing opposing defenses to dictate pace and limiting the offense’s ability to execute efficiently.

Solution: The Lions must do a better job at putting the Quarterback in a position to be successful or they will continue to lose games. This team’s defense is built to play when their offense is ahead so they can attack the opponent’s offense. They are not built to play from behind so they need to not start slow as they have the last two weeks. They need to get leads early and execute on offense, giving them a chance to finish the game strong instead of fighting from behind and hope for the best.


Chicago Bears
Symptoms: The Bears offense is not the problem as they average 23 points per game and statistically one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL. The problem is their defense, as their opponents have score 11 touchdowns in just the first two weeks of this season. The defense has registered zero sacks and their only interception is by one of their pass rushers, Jared Allen.

Diagnosis: Ever since the team fired former Head Coach Lovie Smith a few years ago, the defense has played below average despite the personnel on their roster. When your defense is unable to stop opponents then the offense is put in the dubious position of having to play catch up. Being without starting Quarterback Jay Cutler for a few weeks will further inhibit the team’s ability to keep up in games their defense can’t slow down opponents.

Solution: Talented veterans such as Jared Allen, Antrel Rolle, Lamarr Houston, and Shea McClellin need to take command of the situation and lead this team to play better.  These guys know what it takes to be successful in the NFL and without them this team will finish dead last in the division. The Bears do not have the offensive firepower to win only with their offense. The defense must step up, play up to their potential, and keep opponents from averaging 39.5 point per game against them. They need to shave at least 10 points off that average to allow their offense to have a chance to win games for them.


New Orleans Saints
Symptoms: Despite having a future Hall of Famer at Quarterback in Drew Brees, the Saints are averaging 19 points per game and their offensive line has allowed their Quarterback to be sacked six times. Meanwhile, despite having “defensive guru” Rob Ryan as Defensive Coordinator, the Saints are allowing opponents an average of 380 total yards per game.

Diagnosis: The Saints offensive and defensive lines are under performing in 2015.  Despite the big trade to bring in Pro Bowl Center Max Unger in the offseason, the line has been unable to keep defenders off their Quarterback consistently. Also the line is not gaining the leverage needed at the snap to allow any consistency play from the running game. On the flip side, the defense is getting almost no pressure on opposing Quarterbacks and the secondary is playing sloppy in coverage.

Solution: The Saints need to pick up their overall play in the trenches. They cannot expect to win games if they are getting manhandled after the snap of the football on each play. Drew Brees reportedly has a bruised rotator cuff, thanks to his offensive line doing a poor job of protecting him. The defense needs to get more pressure on opposing Quarterbacks in order to make life more difficult for offenses they face. The coaches Sean Payton and Rob Ryan need to see what they can do to shake up their game plan schemes so they appear less predictable week to week.


Seattle Seahawks
Symptoms: The Seahawks are allowing 30.5 points per game to be scored on them, the highest number in the last 5 seasons. They have only gotten sacks on opposing Quarterbacks 4 times and registered zero interceptions. Meanwhile Seattle has allowed their own starting Quarterback Russell Wilson to be sacked by opponents eight times and their offense is in the bottom half of the league statistically in categories such as total yards per game, passing yards, and total points scored.

Diagnosis: This is not a team right now. Too many players are going onto the field not for the team but playing for themselves and to impress to get contracts. Safety Kam Chancellor has been sitting out, refusing to play, because he wants a pay raise after getting a new contract two years ago. This type of attitude is seemingly permeating the rest of the roster as too many guys on both sides of the ball are playing as individuals instead of executing as a unit. With players such as Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and Cliff Avrill, there is no reason why they should be allowing opponents to score as many points per game.


Solution: Protect your Quarterback and get to the other team’s Quarterback. Seattle Seahawks, the solution is simple.  Stop worrying about the next contact or what the guy next to you is doing or when Kam Chancellor is coming back. Step up, do your job, support your current teammates. Don’t worry about who is no longer on the team because they went elsewhere and got paid. Also, you acquired one of the top offensive weapons in the NFL, Tight End Jimmy Graham. Get him more involved in the offense.  Graham led the Saints in targets on passing plays three of the last four seasons in New Orleans and despite the fact everyone knew the Saints were throwing it to him, he still put up huge statistics every year. There is no reason why he can’t do the same in Seattle.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: AFC South

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.


Here is my preview of the NFC South:

Houston Texans
2015 Projected Record: 10-6
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Chiefs; 10/4 @ Falcons; 10/8 vs Colts; 11/16 @ Bengals; 11/29 vs Saints; 12/13 vs Patriots

Synopsis: If you have read any of my other divisional previews this week, you may notice I mention the Huston Texans often, specifically their defense. Already a good defense, they added a veteran presence in Defensive Tackle Vince Wilfork to a unit already led by arguably the best Defensive player in the NFL, JJ Watt. Let us not forget about the talented starting Cornerback tandem of Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph. If Linebackers Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney both stay healthy all season, the rest of the league better watch out. This team has the potential to be one of the top five defenses in 2015.

On the offensive side of the ball is the home for the greatest concern for the Texans entering 2015. They will be without Pro Bowl Running Back Arian Foster for at least the first few weeks as he recovers from surgery. The pressure will be on new starting Quarterback Brian Hoyer to lead an offense mix of young playmakers (DeAndre Hopkins and C.J. Fiedorowicz) and underrated veterans (Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts).  If they can win early on this season, this 2015 team will gain confidence that can be the momentum that carries them into the playoffs.


Indianapolis Colts
2015 Projected Record: 11-5
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Bills; 10/8 @ Texans; 10/18 vs Patriots; 11/8 vs Broncos; 11/22 @ Falcons; 12/6 @ Steelers

Synopsis: Since drafting their starting Quarterback Andrew Luck in 2012, the Indianapolis Colts have gotten better, advancing farther in the playoffs each year.  But 2015 will be the first year Andrew Luck will have major offensive additions around him.  During the offseason the Colts added former Pro Bowl veterans Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, adding depth to an already solid offensive team.

The key for the Colts in 2015 will be their defense and how they play against high powered offenses such as the Patriots, Saints, Broncos, Falcons and Steelers. They also have several tough road games on their schedule, traveling to play at Buffalo, Houston, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Miami. If Andrew Luck continues to play great football and the defense is able to step up to slow down opponents, the Colts will win another AFC South Divisional Title. This season, the Colts have the potential to make a run at going to the Super Bowl.


Jacksonville Jaguars
2015 Projected Record: 5-11
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Dolphins; 10/11 @ Buccaneers; 10/25 vs Bills; 11/8 @ Jets; 11/29 vs Chargers; 12/20 vs Falcons

Synopsis: The Jacksonville Jaguars spent the offseason solidifying the offense around second year starting Quarterback Blake Bortles. The additions of Offensive Lineman Zane Beadles and Tight End Julius Thomas will help in Bortles development as an NFL QB.  The odd part about the Jaguars roster is their defense. Head Coach Gus Bradley was a long time defensive coordinator and has a high football IQ; yet outside of Linebackers Paul  Posluszny and Telvin Smith along with Defensive End Andre Branch, the overall Jaguars roster on the defensive side is underwhelming at best.

This season the Jaguars have seven games versus high powered offenses (Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers, Falcons, Saints and Colts twice). How will their defense hold up in those matchups?  While the Jaguars have the offensive firepower to win a few shootouts this season, they will not be able to outscore everyone.


Tennessee Titans
2015 Projected Record: 5-11
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Buccaneers; 10/11 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Falcons; 11/19 @ Jaguars; 12/27 vs Texans

Synopsis: The Tennessee Titans enter 2015 with another new starting Quarterback. This franchise has dealt with inconsistent play at that position for the last nine seasons.  The franchise is hoping that rookie Marcus Mariota will be able to translate his skills from the college game to the NFL.  In college Mariota won a Heisman Trophy and was known as one of the most accurate and poised QBs in all of college football.  His transition to the pro game will be the defining storyline of this season.


The Titans got no help from the NFL schedule makers as they start the season with two away games then their first four home games they play a top five Quarterback (Andrew Luck with Colts), potentially a top ten defense (Buffalo Bills) and then two high powered offenses (Dolphins and Falcons).  Historically a difficult schedule plus a rookie QB are not formula for a winning season in the NFL.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: AFC North

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.


Here is my preview of the AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens
2015 Projected Record: 11-5
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Broncos; 11/1 @ Steelers; 10/26 @ Cardinals; 11/22 vs Rams; 12/6 @ Dolphins; 12/13 vs Seahawks; 1/3 @ Bengals

Synopsis: 2015 will mark another season where the Baltimore Ravens will have one of the most talented defense teams in the NFL. Headlined by Linebackers Terrell Suggs, CJ Moseley, Darryl Smith, Courtney Upshaw and Elvis Dummervill, the Ravens are filled with dynamic playmakers at many positions.  The question mark is their offense where they have to replace three starters from last year’s team who were major contributors.  What also does not help is that their Pro Bowl Tight End Dennis Pitta starts the season on the Physically Unable to Perform Injury List. With a talented defense, the pressure will be on the offense to produce to alleviate pressure off the defense. 


Cincinnati Bengals
2015 Projected Record: 9-7
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Raiders; 9/27 @ Ravens; 10/11 vs Seahawks; 11/1 @ Steelers; 11/22 @ Cardinals; 11/29 vs Rams; 12/28 @ Broncos

Synopsis: The Cincinnati Bengals have been the most underachieving team in terms of lacking playoff success over the last few years.  With a very good defensive unit loaded with great players and an offense with multiple dynamic players, expectations are again high for the Bengals.  Yet the question still lingers if this team can maintain success and avoid inconsistent play.  Will Andy Dalton progress as a Quarterback and avoid costly turnovers? Can AJ Green take that next step to have his talent match his play on the field week to week? Can the defense step up in the fourth quarter and shut down opposing offenses charging downfield?
Don’t be surprised if the Bengals get tripped up and lose away matchups in Oakland and Buffalo because they underestimate their competition.  Also, playing at home versus the Chargers, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams doesn’t make their schedule any easier to overcome.  If the Bengals make the playoffs in 2015, it is because they truly earned it surviving a tough schedule.


Cleveland Browns
2015 Projected Record: 4-12
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Raiders; 10/25 @ Rams; 12/13 vs 49ers; 12/27 @ Chiefs

Synopsis: The projections for the 2015 Cleveland Browns have less to do with their roster as it does with their tough overall schedule. Outside of the fact that all three of their divisional rivals are potential playoff contenders, the Browns have to play away against three of the top 15 defenses in the NFL (Jets, Rams, and Seahawks) along with playing three of the top offenses (at Chiefs, at Chargers, and home versus Broncos).
The Browns have talent on both sides of the ball: arguably the top Offensive Tackle in the NFL (Joe Thomas), Pro Bowl Cornerback (Joe Haden), along with a talented cast of Wide Receivers (Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline, and Travis Benjamin).  They will surprise a couple of opponents and earn some upset victories as underdogs.  I just don’t know if they can do it often enough to make 2015 a winning season.


Pittsburgh Steelers
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/27 @ Rams; 10/18 vs Cardinals; 10/25 @ Chiefs; 11/29 @ Seahawks; 12/6 vs Colts; 12/20 vs Broncos


Synopsis: The Pittsburgh Steelers start the 2015 season without three important offensive players. Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant are both serving NFL suspensions while Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey suffered a serious injury during a pre-season game.  If the Steelers do not play well, they could start the season 2-4 which would put them behind the eight ball in their push to make it to the playoffs.  Also they have to handle a brutal second half schedule after their Bye Week with five of their final six games versus potential playoff teams and three of those matchups (the Seahawks, Bengals and Ravens) are away games. Then don’t overlook tough home matchups with the Colts and Broncos, two high powered offenses.  Without a good start to their season, the Steelers may have too much to overcome to make it to the 2015 playoffs.

Monday, September 7, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: AFC East

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Patriots; 10/4 vs Giants; 11/12 at Jets; 11/29 @ Chiefs; 12/27 vs Cowboys

Synopsis: There’s a new culture in Buffalo under new Head Coach Rex Ryan.  Ryan brings energy and attitude lacking from recent previous head coaches.  We know that under Rex’s direction his team play good defenses and this year will be no different.  The Bills have a solid balance of young and veteran talent on the defensive side of the ball.  At worst this will be a top 12 defense in the NFL this season.
The biggest question marks revolve around the offense. Tyrod Taylor has been named the starting Quarterback for 2015 and this will be his first season in the NFL as a starting QB.  Also coming into the season there are injury concerns for All Pro Running Back LeSean McCoy with uncertainty exactly how his injury will affect his play during the season.  If the Bills offense plays up to their potential and the defense executes consistent, this is a potential playoff team.


Miami Dolphins
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+3/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Texans; 11/22 vs Cowboys; 11/29 @ Jets; 12/6 vs Ravens; 1/3 vs Patriots

Synopsis: In 2015 the Dolphins have the opportunity to take a step forward and contend for the playoffs.  The real key is the progression of whether Ryan Tannehill will make or break Miami’s season; if Tannehill will continue his development, you can expect a big season from the Dolphins.  The team has surrounded Tannehill with new weapons such as Wide Receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings along with former Pro Bowl Tight End Jordan Cameron.  
Looking at the Dolphins schedule they have the chance to start their season 6-0 thanks to several returning starters on defense.  As for any NFL team, so much is dependent on the play of their Quarterback this season and time will tell how much Tannehill has grown as a professional.


New England Patriots
2015 Projected Record: 12-4
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/20 @ Bills; 10/11 @ Cowboys; 10/18 @ Colts; 11/15 @ Giants; 11/29 @ Broncos; 12/6 vs Eagles

Synopsis: The defending Super Bowl champions have dealt with an offseason full of distractions thanks to “Deflate Gate”.  Now that saga has been put on the back burner, the team can get back to focusing on football with their starting Quarterback, Tom Brady.  They must now overcome injuries, suspensions, and players lea
ving via free agency to get back to the playoffs to defend their title.  Despite everything, this is still a talented team with a future Hall of Fame Quarterback (Tom Brady), the top Tight End in the NFL (Rob Gronkowski), one of the most dynamic Defensive Ends in the NFL (Chandler Jones), and one of the most consistent Kickers in the league (Steven Gostkowski).  A well-rounded team always has a great chance to make a playoff run and the Patriots are well-built for another Super Bowl run.


New York Jets
2015 Projected Record: 5-11
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Browns; 10/18 vs Redskins; 11/12 vs Bills; 12/6 @ Giants; 12/27 vs Patriots


Synopsis: Todd Bowles’ first season as Jets Head Coach does not look very promising.  Before the Bye Week the Jets have three tough games: Playing at the Colts (a perennial playoff team), home versus the Eagles (One of the top offenses in the NFL), and then go play the Dolphins in Miami (divisional rival).  Later in the year they have to play at New England, at Oakland, at Houston, and at Dallas; all tough matchups also.  
Their starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid player but he is not the type of player who has shown he can carry a team on his back.  The strength of the Jets will be their defense; the combination of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie as the starting Cornerbacks is one of the best combos in the NFL.  Also their front seven lead by dynamic Defensive Lineman Muhammed Wilkerson and rookie Leonard Williams will help keep games close for the Jets this season.  But in the end, that tough schedule may be too much for them to overcome.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Steve Smith: One of the last of his kind

This week, Baltimore Ravens Wide Receiver Steve Smith Sr. announced that 2015 will be his last year playing in the NFL and he would retire at season’s end.  Smith’s announcement is more than just another talented player saying his career is ending, he is one of the last of his breed of Wide Receivers.  While many of today’s big name route runners are known best for their speed, hands, or after catch talents, Smith is more than just another talented receiver: he is a competitor.

The truth is that many of today’s “Diva Stars” who play as an NFL Wide Receiver get by on talent and hard work but lack the competitive edge of men like Steve Smith.  Thirty years ago the star skill position on offense was Running Back.  Hall of Famers such as Eric Dickerson, Earl Campbell, and Walter Payton dominated on the NFL gridiron.  Meanwhile the next group of superstars were making themselves known to college coaches, Guys such as Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, Emmitt Smith and Jerome Bettis.  But the 1990s brought us a new breed of Wide Receiver; guys with talent whose competitive edge made them elite players.  Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, Andre Reed, and Isaac Bruce did more than just put of big numbers, they earned that respect by the way they prepared for each game and competed each week.

Steve Smith Sr. worked his way from Santa Monica College to transfer to Division 1 University of Utah then later impressed NFL scouts leading up to the 2001 NFL Draft.  One NFL scout described Smith in 2001 as “just another short, speedster who is too small to play Running Back”; but this was just the tip of the iceberg of who Smith is.  What made Smith into a 5-time Pro Bowler who eight times in his 13 year career totaled a minimum of 1,000 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns is his competitive spirit.  This is a player who doesn’t play football for the fame and money but plays because he thrives off proving the doubters wrong. He fights for every yard and gives his all to his teammates.  There’s a good reason why former teammate Carolina Panthers Defensive End Charles Johnson said, “He is one of the most competitive people I have ever been around.”

This competitive spirit and relentless work ethic is what sets Smith apart from many of his younger contemporaries.  So many of today’s “superstar” NFL Wide Receivers lack the competitive drive of players of yesteryear.  Many of today’s players think they are stars and want to be treated as such; these guys know they are talented and are unabashed in talking about how special they are.  Many of today’s NFL Wide Receivers saw and read parts of Keyshawn Johnson’s book “Just Give Me The Damn Ball” thinking or believing that, “I can be as good as Keyshawn. That’s right, give me the ball!” without knowing how hard Johnson worked making a name for himself in college and the NFL.

Similar to Pros such as Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith Sr. knows that having talent is not enough to be successful in the NFL.  While Smith was not a “model citizen” in his early years, with age came maturity and he learned how to channel his passion into success on the football field.   Young athletes need to stop looking up to the flamboyant “superstars” who get by on talent and attitude for their success.  Smith is a throwback whose work ethic on and off the field made him into the player he is today.  Entering 2015 Smith is ranked top 20 All-Time in Receiving Yards (13,262), Receptions (915), and All-Purpose Yards (17,679).  On top of that, he is ten receiving touchdowns away from ending his career in the top 20 ranked in that statistical category as well.

For me, I will be sure to enjoy Smith’s final season, just like I did Ray Lewis’ final run, because players with Smith’s competitive nature and love of the game of football are uncommon in today’s world of the “Superstar” Pro Athlete.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Geno Smith's Injury May Best for New York Jets


On Tuesday, New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith got into an altercation in the locker room and suffered a broken jaw at the hands of now released IK Enemkpali.  Whatever the reasoning was behind the altercation, many Jets fans are panicking, to which I say, why?  Yes this is the third draft pick from 2013 to miss time this season (along with Defensive Lineman Sheldon Richardson and Cornerback Dee Milliner) but this is by no means a “loss” for the Jets franchise.  Note I used the term “franchise” and not “team”; I did that because this may be the best thing that could happen for the New York Jets.

While I feel some empathy for Geno Smith, the reality is that he has been a below average Quarterback in his time in the NFL and has not lived up to the hype given him coming out of the University of West Virginia.  In my eyes, I never understood the hype for a guy with average arm talent, above average athleticism and average Football IQ.  Furthermore, the Jets organization has not shown real faith in Smith’s abilities to be the starting QB when they brought in Michael Vick to compete for the starting job last season and then in the 2015 NFL Draft selecting University of Baylor QB Bryce Petty.  Smith has not shown the ability on or off the field to validate his standing as the Jets starting Quarterback.

Let’s go even deeper by highlighting why this is good for the New York Jets that Smith will miss 6-10 weeks with this injury:

1. Your Starting Quarterback is now Ryan Fitzpatrick
Some Jets fan may forget who Ryan Fitzpatrick is and I understand that, since Fitzpatrick is not a household name among many sports fans.  Fitzpatrick has started 89 games from 2005 through 2014 in the NFL, amassing 19,273 passing yards, 123 passing Touchdowns, and a completion percentage of 60.2%.  On top of that, for his career against the Jets (most of these stats he compiled as starter for Buffalo Bills) he has thrown for 1,477 yards along with 12 Touchdowns and 7 interceptions.  In comparison, Geno Smith in two seasons has a career completion percentage of 57.5% and thrown 25 touchdowns versus 34 interceptions.  If we go solely by the numbers, one would choose Fitzpatrick over Smith to start at Quarterback.

If we dig even deeper, one will find that Fitzpatrick is a graduate of Harvard University and scored one of the highest scores in the NFL Combine IQ Exam, The Wonderlic Test.  Fitzpatrick is more than capable of being a starting NFL Quarterback and is better suited for the role than Smith.

2. Your Quarterback of the future is Bryce Petty, not Geno Smith
Petty, who was drafted by the Jets this year, has a higher potential ceiling than Smith.  Petty who played at Baylor University, has a great arm, good Football IQ, and is an above average athlete.  Yes he comes from a spread offense and still needs time to learn how to read NFL style defenses, but it is better he learn this while watching Fitzpatrick play than Smith stumble along.  Petty has garnered comparisons by scouts to Tommy Maddox; many people forget how talented Maddox was before injuries derailed his career.  If that scout’s analogy lays true then Petty has a bright future in the NFL and that is good news for the New York Jets and their fans.

3. Allows the Jets an out to not bring back Smith after 2015
The New York Jets have a Déjà vu situation on their hands with Smith missing at least half the season with this injury.  In 2013 when Mark Sanchez was out for the season due to a shoulder injury, the Jets were able to give newly drafted Geno Smith extended playing time, opening the door for them to have an excuse to not bring back Sanchez and move forward with their new future Quarterback, who at that time was Smith.  Sanchez was able to exit New York and landed in Philadelphia, allowing the Jets to fully invest in Smith as the future of the franchise without the previous first round draft pick Sanchez lurking in the wings.

Fast forward to 2015, with Smith’s mediocre two seasons in a Jets uniform as indication of a probable failed investment, this latest incident gives the Jets opportunity to move forward without the burden of another season with the cloud of Geno Smith’s unreached potential hanging over the organization.  Smith has not been the Quarterback on the field or leader of the field the Jets need and there is no better time than the present for them to start planning for a future without him on their roster.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

2014 NFL Projections: AFC Edition


This is my 17th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has a team in gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL; I only projected 3 of those 11.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

So first here are my AFC projections and notes for each AFC team, division, followed by playoff projections and conference winner.

 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Projected Record: 4-12

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -2

Swing Game(s): Sept 14th at home vs Miami; Oct 19th at home vs Minnesota; Nov 9 at home vs Kansas City; Dec 21 at Oakland

Notes: Overall the Bills have a tough schedule, playing road games at Chicago, at Detroit, and at Denver.  Also expect  interdivision matchups with the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets to be hard fought but seeing the Bills finish the season with a losing interdivision record.  A lot of young talent that still needs time to gain experience and chemistry is what the roster is filled with.

 

Miami Dolphins

Projected Record: 7-9

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -2

Swing Game(s): Sept 14th at Buffalo; Oct 12th at home vs Green Bay; Nov 2 at home vs San Diego; Dec 7th at home vs Baltimore

Notes: Expect Ryan Tannehill to make positive strides in his third season as the Dolphins starting Quarterback with the arrival of Knoeshawn Moreno, a major upgrade at the running back position.  Last season Miami had the 26th ranked rushing offense; with Moreno and a more cohesive offensive line unit that should improve. The biggest stumbling block for Miami is their bye week comes early in the season (Week 5) and immediately following that five of their next eight games scheduled are road games.  Not an easy task, especially at Denver, at Detroit, at Chicago and at the Jets in December.

 

New England Patriots

Projected Record: 12-4

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -4

Swing Game(s): Sept 29th at Kansas City; Oct 26 at home vs Chicago; Nov 2nd at home vs Denver; Dec 7th at San Diego

Notes: The Patriots have a rollercoaster schedule in 2014.  Four of their six games to start the season are on the road then after their Bye Week (Week 10) the play four straight games against teams with Pro Bowl Quarterbacks (Colts, Lions, Packers, Chargers).  Although I think the Patriots will have a good overall season they will be battle tested playing against all four NFC North teams. 

 

New York Jets

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 22nd at home vs Chicago; Sept 28th at home vs Detroit; Nov 23rd at Buffalo; Dec 7th at Minnesota; Dec 14th at Tennessee

Notes: The Jets have two major question marks coming into the 2014 season: Will they have quality Quarterback play and the health/depth at the Cornerback position.  From September 14th through October 16th they face off against six of the top ten passing offenses from 2013; a dubious task for a team with little depth at cornerback.  Furthermore, can the Jets offense keep up with these high powered offenses?  How long will Gino Smith stay the starting Quarterback if he commits too many turnovers? Can the Jets pass defense force any turnovers without any ball-hawk cornerbacks? 

 

Projected AFC East Winner: New England Patriots

 

AFC South

 
Houston Texans

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 14th at Oakland; Sept 21st at the Giants; Oct 5th at Dallas; Nov 16th at Cleveland; Nov 23rd at home vs Cincinnati

 Notes: The Texans are a talented team but are underwhelming at the Quarterback position.  Having to play four games against the AFC North will definitely test their offense’s ability to score consistently enough to win games.  They only play four high powered offensive teams on their schedules so they are fortunate that they will not be subjected to many potential shootouts.  Expect the Texans to win half of their games thanks to the defense’s ferocity. 

 

Indianapolis Colts

Projected Record: 10-6

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 15th at home vs Philadelphia; Sept 21st at Jacksonville; Oct 9th at Houston; Nov 16th at home vs New England; Dec 21st at Dallas

Notes: Let’s be realistic, without Andrew Luck this team is potentially 3-13 in 2014 considering the teams they have to play.  Their first two games are against two of the top offenses in the NFL, then their two games before the bye week they are on the road to play two teams with Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks.  But wait, it gets better; after the Bye Week (Week 10) they get to play the Patriots and Week 16 they get to go to Dallas.  The only “good news” for the Colts season is that the teams they have to play on the road have a combined losing record in 2013.  So maybe they are “Lucky”.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 21 at home vs Indianapolis; Oct 12th at Tennessee; Oct 26th at home vs Miami; Nov 9th at home vs Dallas; Dec 18th at home vs Tennessee

Notes: The Jaguars are better team then last year, that’s the good news.  The bad news is they have to play many other teams that have upgraded their rosters as well.  The Jaguars will play every team tough, although they do not have the offensive firepower of their opponents, their defense is better than last season’s statistics show.  Head Coach Gus Bradley is building a competitive team that in a couple years could develop into a contender.

 

Tennessee Titans

Projected Record: 5-11

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 14th at home vs Dallas; Oct 12th at home vs Jacksonville; Oct 26th at home vs Houston; Dec 7th at home vs the NY Giants

Notes: When you look over the Titans roster you see a good mix of young and veteran talent.  But when you look at their schedule they could potentially start the season 0-4 and then potentially lose five straight games after their Bye Week (Week 9).  I am unsure how their offense is going to keep up against teams like the Eagles, Redskins, and Cowboys or how they are going to fair against tough defenses like the Steelers, Ravens, Bengals and even the Browns defense could be a matchup problem for the Titans.

 

Projected AFC South Winner: Indianapolis Colts

 

AFC North

 
Baltimore Ravens

Projected Record: 9-7

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -3

Swing Games:  Sept 11 at home vs Pittsburgh; Oct 5th at Indianapolis; Nov 2nd at Pittsburgh; Dec 7th at Miami; Dec 21st at Houston

Notes:  The Ravens improved their defense this past offseason but their offense’s ability to be productive and consistent is the big question.  They open the season with three straight games against division rivals followed by four of the next six games on the road.   After their Bye Week (Week 11) the Ravens have to two of the top ten offenses from 2013 (At New Orleans then home versus the Chargers).  This may be another season where Baltimore have to lean on its defense to bail them out if they want to make the playoffs.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -3

Swing Games: Oct 5th at New England; Oct 19th at Indianapolis; Nov 30th at Tampa Bay; Dec 7th at home vs Pittsburgh

Notes:  The Bengals have one of the most difficult schedules of the 2014 NFL season.  Their Bye Week is early in the season (Week 4) and come out of that Bye Week playing three straight 2013 playoff teams (At the Patriots, Home versus Carolina, At the Colts).  Meanwhile, five of their last seven games are on the road but one of those home games is against the Denver Broncos.  Time will tell if the Bengals new offensive and defensive coordinators are up to the challenge or if they will come up short compared to their predecessors who are now Head Coaches in the NFL.

 

Cleveland Browns

Projected Record: 3-13

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1

Swing Games: Oct 5th at Tennessee; Nov 2nd at home vs Tampa; Dec 14th at home vs Cincinnati

Notes:  The Browns open the season against three potential playoff teams (Saints, Steelers, Ravens) then have an early Bye Week (Week 4) then five of their next nine games are on the road.  The only way the Browns can be competitive this season is with good defense and offensive ball control with the running game.  They will not be blown out in many games but their overall roster is lacking compared to many of their opponents in 2014.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Record: 10-6

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +1 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 21st at Carolina; Oct 26th at home vs Colts; Nov 2nd at home vs Baltimore; Nov 30th at home vs Saints

Notes:  The Steelers have they least treacherous schedule of all of the AFC North teams in 2014.  They play only two games versus 2013 playoff teams (Carolina and Indianapolis) before their Bye Week (Week 12).  After their Bye Week they do have a difficult stretch to end the season against the Saints, Bengals twice, Falcons and Chiefs.  But if they gain enough positive momentum before this five game stretch it is reasonable to say they could come out of that with a winning record and seal a division win.  Also, expect Lance Moore to put up better numbers at Wide Receiver in 2014 with the Steelers than Emmanuel Sanders did in 2013.

 

Projected AFC North Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

AFC West

 
Denver Broncos

Projected Record: 12-4

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3

Swing Games: Oct 19th at home vs San Francisco; Oct 23rd at home vs San Diego; Nov 2nd at New England; Nov 16th at St. Louis; Dec 14th at San Diego

Notes:  The Broncos as a team maybe have a better roster than last season, especially on defense.  Time will tell if the early Bye Week (Week 4) will be a positive or negative for them.  After the Bye Week they play two of 2013’s top defenses (49ers and Cardinals) along with two of 2013’s top offense teams (Patriots and Chargers).  Don’t expect the Broncos to have an easy go of the 2014 season since they have to play the NFC West which is the home of four of the top ten NFL defenses in 2013.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1

Swing Games: Sept 21 at Miami; Sept 29th at home vs New England; Oct 26th at home vs St. Louis; Nov 9th at Buffalo; Dec 21st at Pittsburgh

Notes:  The Chiefs have a much more difficult schedule ahead of them in 2014 compared to last season.  Aside from having to play the four teams from the NFC West (all are 2013 Top Ten Defenses) but they also have to play well coached defensive teams like the Rams, Jets and Steelers.  The Chiefs have an efficient offense, not a high powered offense so if they get behind it will not be easy to make a comeback.   Also considering they play three of their first five games against 2013 Playoff teams, do not expect the Chiefs to start the season on a hot streak like last season.

 

Oakland Raiders

Projected Record: 5-11

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 14th at home vs Houston; Oct 12th at home vs San Diego; Oct 19th at home vs Arizona; Oct 26th at Cleveland; Nov 20th at home vs Kansas City

Notes:  The Raiders have more talent on their roster than many people would expect.  The problem for them is they play many teams that have well coached defenses (The Jets, Patriots, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams) while the Raiders are starting a rookie Quarterback.  I think Derek Carr will be a better pro compared to his older brother, the Raiders will likely have a rollercoaster season in which they will be tested on both sides of the ball.

 

San Diego Chargers

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -1

Swing Games: Sept 8th at Arizona; Sept 21st at Buffalo; Oct 19th at home vs Kansas City; Dec 7th at home vs New England; Dec 14th at home vs Denver

Notes:  San Diego has a good team but they face a tough lineup in 2014.  They open their season playing two of the top defenses in the NFL (Cardinals and Seahawks), play two straight road games before their Bye Week (At Denver and Miami; Bye Week is Week 10), and end their season playing four consecutive 2013 Playoff teams (Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs).  Not an easy schedule but if they can get a few games to go their way, they could still make the playoffs with the talent they have on the roster.

 

AFC West Projected Winner: Denver Broncos

 

Projected AFC Playoff Picture

1. New England Patriots

2. Denver Broncos

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. Baltimore Ravens

6. Houston Texans

 

Projected Playoff Results:

Wild Card Round - Ravens defeat Colts; Steelers defeat Texans

Divisional Round - Patriots defeat Ravens; Broncos defeat Steelers

AFC Championship - Patriots (home team) defeat Broncos