Showing posts with label New England Patriots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New England Patriots. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Dolphins Firing Philbin another example of the Failed "Offensive Guru"

On Monday the Miami Dolphins fired their Head Coach Joe Philbin and installed former NFL Tight End Dan Campbell as the Interim Head Coach.  This will be Miami’s fourth Head Coach since 2008, a period of years with only one playoff appearance. Philbin represents another failure of the so called “Offensive Gurus” in the NFL as Head Coaches.  While the term “failure” is a subjective and overused term in the sports world, history speaks for itself.

The NFL has overvalued men who are offensive coaches and coordinators for decades, turning these men into Head Coaches all over the league.  Whether it’s Mike Martz, Jim Zorn, Marty Mornhiweg, Mike Sherman, Steve Spurrier, or Mark Trestman, there is a long list of “geniuses” or “gurus” who were supposed to turn teams around and revolutionize franchises.  In fact only four teams over the last 15 years have won a Super Bowl with a Head Coach with an offensive coaching background.  Even then, we should question whether those coaches won because of their offensive prowess:

Super Bowl XXXV (2001): Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach Brian Billick has a background as an Offensive Coordinator, Receivers Coach and Assistant Coach in College and NFL.  But the 2000 Baltimore Ravens are known as one of the top five defensive units in NFL history as they won 34-7 with a Quarterback who never played in Baltimore after that season (Trent Dilfer).  In fact, during his tenure as Ravens Head Coach, Billick would never be able to cultivate an offense half as high powered as the one he presided over while coaching with the Minnesota Vikings in the 1990’s.

Super Bowl XXXVII (2003): Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach Jon Gruden was considered one of the top offensive coaches in the NFL before he became the Oakland Raiders then later Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach.  While Gruden revived the careers of veterans such as Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia, it was the dominant Bucs defense that earn him that Super Bowl title.  In fact, Tampa won 48-21 over Gruden’s former team, the Raiders, in a game in which the Bucs defense forced multiple turnovers and never allowed the Raiders offense to gain any real traction.  Gruden coached the Bucs for seven seasons, with only one trip to the Super Bowl, the rest of the seasons ending in failure to meet expectations.

Super Bowl XLIV (2010): New Orleans Saints
Head Coach Sean Payton spent nine years as a Quarterbacks Coach and Offensive Coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, and Dallas Cowboys before being hired to his first job as Head Coach with the Saints.  Despite having one of the top Quarterbacks in NFL history in Drew Brees, the Saints won their Super Bowl thanks to their defense.  The Saints went into the playoffs with a defense top five in the league in Interceptions and least points scored against.  In the Super Bowl they won 31-17 limiting another future Hall of Fame Quarterback, Peyton Manning, to only one passing touchdown all game.

Super Bowl XLV (2011): Green Bay Packers
Head Coach Mike McCarthy was a long time Quarterbacks Coach and Offensive Coordinator with the Chiefs, Packers, Saints, and 49ers before returning to Green Bay to be their new Head Coach.  What is forgotten about that 2010 Green Bay Packers team was how good their defense was. The unit was top ten in the NFL that season in Least Points Per Game Against, Total Yards Against, and Turnovers Forced.  The Packers 31-25 victory was the icing on the cake of a great season for a talented all-around team.


The last high powered offense to win  Super Bowl without a good defense was the 1999 St. Louis Rams and even they needed a last second clutch defensive play to win the game.  Yet the NFL is still obsessed with the “hot coordinator” who gets labelled an offensive “genius” or “guru”.   The long list of “failed” Head Coaches in the NFL over the last 20 years is predominantly men with offensive coaching backgrounds.  Part of the issue is some people are not cut out to be Head Coaches, such coaches are specialists not executive game managers.  Others do not succeed because they are all about a “system” or “scheme” then find out that not being flexible with their game plans leads to limited results in the NFL.  This is a major reason why so many college coaches do not succeed in the NFL, In professional team sports a coach must structure a game plan around his talent, not force pieces into their system.

Being an NFL Head Coach is more than having a high Football IQ and being great talent evaluator, they must almost manage personalities of players and the coaching staff.  There is some psychology involved in coaching that gets overlooked.  In order to bring out the best in a player the coach must understand what motivates that individual, see through the obvious skills and help unlock what that player is truly capable of on game day.  It is not enough to know a player has great potential; the coach must also bring that talent out of the player in order to help them succeed.

This a major reason why so many of the successful NFL Head Coaches come from a defensive coaching background.  As a defensive position coach or defensive coordinator, success is more dependent on bringing out the skills of players they coach than it is about scheme.  Head Coaches such as Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll have success because they see the potential of their players then turn that potential into usable talent by putting players in a position to be successful.  Both coaches understand that without the players, all the hours of structure, game plans, research, etc is useless if the players cannot execute on game day.  Also what makes both of these coaches successful is the fact they have learn from past failures.

This is what really differentiates great coaches from subpar ones: the ability to see what they did wrong in the past, learn from it, and take those learning experiences into the next opportunity.  Too many of these offensive “gurus” and “geniuses” are overconfident in their systems and buy into their own hype so deeply they become arrogant.  The old saying “Pride comes before a fall” plays out in the NFL from week to week during games and press conferences, as these coaches show their insecurities while being questioned about what is going on with their teams. 

Look back on all the “successful” NFL Head Coaches with offensive coaching backgrounds.  Andy Reid was at his best in Philadelphia with Jim Johnson’s defenses wreaking havoc on opponents keep games within reach.  Sean Payton’s Saints and Mike McCarthy’s Packers have high scoring offenses led by top talent Quarterbacks yet haven’t been back to the Super Bowl without a good defense to slow down opponents.  Jason Garrett’s Cowboys couldn’t get over that habitual 8-8 record until they had a defense to compliment the offense.  Even Head Coaches such as Gary Kubiak and Bruce Arians know that without a solid defense to make up the difference when their offenses falter then they cannot win games.


The firing of Joe Philbin only amplifies the importance of the old saying “Defense wins championships” in the NFL.  Football is the ultimate team game and in order for a team to be successful, they need the players, all of them, to execute on game day.  For all of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady record breaking seasons as Quarterbacks, none of them won a Super Bowl in those years.  I certainly do not think that is a coincidence.  

Monday, September 7, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: AFC East

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Patriots; 10/4 vs Giants; 11/12 at Jets; 11/29 @ Chiefs; 12/27 vs Cowboys

Synopsis: There’s a new culture in Buffalo under new Head Coach Rex Ryan.  Ryan brings energy and attitude lacking from recent previous head coaches.  We know that under Rex’s direction his team play good defenses and this year will be no different.  The Bills have a solid balance of young and veteran talent on the defensive side of the ball.  At worst this will be a top 12 defense in the NFL this season.
The biggest question marks revolve around the offense. Tyrod Taylor has been named the starting Quarterback for 2015 and this will be his first season in the NFL as a starting QB.  Also coming into the season there are injury concerns for All Pro Running Back LeSean McCoy with uncertainty exactly how his injury will affect his play during the season.  If the Bills offense plays up to their potential and the defense executes consistent, this is a potential playoff team.


Miami Dolphins
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+3/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Texans; 11/22 vs Cowboys; 11/29 @ Jets; 12/6 vs Ravens; 1/3 vs Patriots

Synopsis: In 2015 the Dolphins have the opportunity to take a step forward and contend for the playoffs.  The real key is the progression of whether Ryan Tannehill will make or break Miami’s season; if Tannehill will continue his development, you can expect a big season from the Dolphins.  The team has surrounded Tannehill with new weapons such as Wide Receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings along with former Pro Bowl Tight End Jordan Cameron.  
Looking at the Dolphins schedule they have the chance to start their season 6-0 thanks to several returning starters on defense.  As for any NFL team, so much is dependent on the play of their Quarterback this season and time will tell how much Tannehill has grown as a professional.


New England Patriots
2015 Projected Record: 12-4
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/20 @ Bills; 10/11 @ Cowboys; 10/18 @ Colts; 11/15 @ Giants; 11/29 @ Broncos; 12/6 vs Eagles

Synopsis: The defending Super Bowl champions have dealt with an offseason full of distractions thanks to “Deflate Gate”.  Now that saga has been put on the back burner, the team can get back to focusing on football with their starting Quarterback, Tom Brady.  They must now overcome injuries, suspensions, and players lea
ving via free agency to get back to the playoffs to defend their title.  Despite everything, this is still a talented team with a future Hall of Fame Quarterback (Tom Brady), the top Tight End in the NFL (Rob Gronkowski), one of the most dynamic Defensive Ends in the NFL (Chandler Jones), and one of the most consistent Kickers in the league (Steven Gostkowski).  A well-rounded team always has a great chance to make a playoff run and the Patriots are well-built for another Super Bowl run.


New York Jets
2015 Projected Record: 5-11
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Browns; 10/18 vs Redskins; 11/12 vs Bills; 12/6 @ Giants; 12/27 vs Patriots


Synopsis: Todd Bowles’ first season as Jets Head Coach does not look very promising.  Before the Bye Week the Jets have three tough games: Playing at the Colts (a perennial playoff team), home versus the Eagles (One of the top offenses in the NFL), and then go play the Dolphins in Miami (divisional rival).  Later in the year they have to play at New England, at Oakland, at Houston, and at Dallas; all tough matchups also.  
Their starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid player but he is not the type of player who has shown he can carry a team on his back.  The strength of the Jets will be their defense; the combination of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie as the starting Cornerbacks is one of the best combos in the NFL.  Also their front seven lead by dynamic Defensive Lineman Muhammed Wilkerson and rookie Leonard Williams will help keep games close for the Jets this season.  But in the end, that tough schedule may be too much for them to overcome.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

2014 NFL Projections: AFC Edition


This is my 17th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has a team in gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL; I only projected 3 of those 11.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

So first here are my AFC projections and notes for each AFC team, division, followed by playoff projections and conference winner.

 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Projected Record: 4-12

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -2

Swing Game(s): Sept 14th at home vs Miami; Oct 19th at home vs Minnesota; Nov 9 at home vs Kansas City; Dec 21 at Oakland

Notes: Overall the Bills have a tough schedule, playing road games at Chicago, at Detroit, and at Denver.  Also expect  interdivision matchups with the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets to be hard fought but seeing the Bills finish the season with a losing interdivision record.  A lot of young talent that still needs time to gain experience and chemistry is what the roster is filled with.

 

Miami Dolphins

Projected Record: 7-9

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -2

Swing Game(s): Sept 14th at Buffalo; Oct 12th at home vs Green Bay; Nov 2 at home vs San Diego; Dec 7th at home vs Baltimore

Notes: Expect Ryan Tannehill to make positive strides in his third season as the Dolphins starting Quarterback with the arrival of Knoeshawn Moreno, a major upgrade at the running back position.  Last season Miami had the 26th ranked rushing offense; with Moreno and a more cohesive offensive line unit that should improve. The biggest stumbling block for Miami is their bye week comes early in the season (Week 5) and immediately following that five of their next eight games scheduled are road games.  Not an easy task, especially at Denver, at Detroit, at Chicago and at the Jets in December.

 

New England Patriots

Projected Record: 12-4

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -4

Swing Game(s): Sept 29th at Kansas City; Oct 26 at home vs Chicago; Nov 2nd at home vs Denver; Dec 7th at San Diego

Notes: The Patriots have a rollercoaster schedule in 2014.  Four of their six games to start the season are on the road then after their Bye Week (Week 10) the play four straight games against teams with Pro Bowl Quarterbacks (Colts, Lions, Packers, Chargers).  Although I think the Patriots will have a good overall season they will be battle tested playing against all four NFC North teams. 

 

New York Jets

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 22nd at home vs Chicago; Sept 28th at home vs Detroit; Nov 23rd at Buffalo; Dec 7th at Minnesota; Dec 14th at Tennessee

Notes: The Jets have two major question marks coming into the 2014 season: Will they have quality Quarterback play and the health/depth at the Cornerback position.  From September 14th through October 16th they face off against six of the top ten passing offenses from 2013; a dubious task for a team with little depth at cornerback.  Furthermore, can the Jets offense keep up with these high powered offenses?  How long will Gino Smith stay the starting Quarterback if he commits too many turnovers? Can the Jets pass defense force any turnovers without any ball-hawk cornerbacks? 

 

Projected AFC East Winner: New England Patriots

 

AFC South

 
Houston Texans

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 14th at Oakland; Sept 21st at the Giants; Oct 5th at Dallas; Nov 16th at Cleveland; Nov 23rd at home vs Cincinnati

 Notes: The Texans are a talented team but are underwhelming at the Quarterback position.  Having to play four games against the AFC North will definitely test their offense’s ability to score consistently enough to win games.  They only play four high powered offensive teams on their schedules so they are fortunate that they will not be subjected to many potential shootouts.  Expect the Texans to win half of their games thanks to the defense’s ferocity. 

 

Indianapolis Colts

Projected Record: 10-6

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 15th at home vs Philadelphia; Sept 21st at Jacksonville; Oct 9th at Houston; Nov 16th at home vs New England; Dec 21st at Dallas

Notes: Let’s be realistic, without Andrew Luck this team is potentially 3-13 in 2014 considering the teams they have to play.  Their first two games are against two of the top offenses in the NFL, then their two games before the bye week they are on the road to play two teams with Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks.  But wait, it gets better; after the Bye Week (Week 10) they get to play the Patriots and Week 16 they get to go to Dallas.  The only “good news” for the Colts season is that the teams they have to play on the road have a combined losing record in 2013.  So maybe they are “Lucky”.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 21 at home vs Indianapolis; Oct 12th at Tennessee; Oct 26th at home vs Miami; Nov 9th at home vs Dallas; Dec 18th at home vs Tennessee

Notes: The Jaguars are better team then last year, that’s the good news.  The bad news is they have to play many other teams that have upgraded their rosters as well.  The Jaguars will play every team tough, although they do not have the offensive firepower of their opponents, their defense is better than last season’s statistics show.  Head Coach Gus Bradley is building a competitive team that in a couple years could develop into a contender.

 

Tennessee Titans

Projected Record: 5-11

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 14th at home vs Dallas; Oct 12th at home vs Jacksonville; Oct 26th at home vs Houston; Dec 7th at home vs the NY Giants

Notes: When you look over the Titans roster you see a good mix of young and veteran talent.  But when you look at their schedule they could potentially start the season 0-4 and then potentially lose five straight games after their Bye Week (Week 9).  I am unsure how their offense is going to keep up against teams like the Eagles, Redskins, and Cowboys or how they are going to fair against tough defenses like the Steelers, Ravens, Bengals and even the Browns defense could be a matchup problem for the Titans.

 

Projected AFC South Winner: Indianapolis Colts

 

AFC North

 
Baltimore Ravens

Projected Record: 9-7

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +2 and -3

Swing Games:  Sept 11 at home vs Pittsburgh; Oct 5th at Indianapolis; Nov 2nd at Pittsburgh; Dec 7th at Miami; Dec 21st at Houston

Notes:  The Ravens improved their defense this past offseason but their offense’s ability to be productive and consistent is the big question.  They open the season with three straight games against division rivals followed by four of the next six games on the road.   After their Bye Week (Week 11) the Ravens have to two of the top ten offenses from 2013 (At New Orleans then home versus the Chargers).  This may be another season where Baltimore have to lean on its defense to bail them out if they want to make the playoffs.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -3

Swing Games: Oct 5th at New England; Oct 19th at Indianapolis; Nov 30th at Tampa Bay; Dec 7th at home vs Pittsburgh

Notes:  The Bengals have one of the most difficult schedules of the 2014 NFL season.  Their Bye Week is early in the season (Week 4) and come out of that Bye Week playing three straight 2013 playoff teams (At the Patriots, Home versus Carolina, At the Colts).  Meanwhile, five of their last seven games are on the road but one of those home games is against the Denver Broncos.  Time will tell if the Bengals new offensive and defensive coordinators are up to the challenge or if they will come up short compared to their predecessors who are now Head Coaches in the NFL.

 

Cleveland Browns

Projected Record: 3-13

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1

Swing Games: Oct 5th at Tennessee; Nov 2nd at home vs Tampa; Dec 14th at home vs Cincinnati

Notes:  The Browns open the season against three potential playoff teams (Saints, Steelers, Ravens) then have an early Bye Week (Week 4) then five of their next nine games are on the road.  The only way the Browns can be competitive this season is with good defense and offensive ball control with the running game.  They will not be blown out in many games but their overall roster is lacking compared to many of their opponents in 2014.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Record: 10-6

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +1 and -3

Swing Games: Sept 21st at Carolina; Oct 26th at home vs Colts; Nov 2nd at home vs Baltimore; Nov 30th at home vs Saints

Notes:  The Steelers have they least treacherous schedule of all of the AFC North teams in 2014.  They play only two games versus 2013 playoff teams (Carolina and Indianapolis) before their Bye Week (Week 12).  After their Bye Week they do have a difficult stretch to end the season against the Saints, Bengals twice, Falcons and Chiefs.  But if they gain enough positive momentum before this five game stretch it is reasonable to say they could come out of that with a winning record and seal a division win.  Also, expect Lance Moore to put up better numbers at Wide Receiver in 2014 with the Steelers than Emmanuel Sanders did in 2013.

 

Projected AFC North Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

AFC West

 
Denver Broncos

Projected Record: 12-4

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3

Swing Games: Oct 19th at home vs San Francisco; Oct 23rd at home vs San Diego; Nov 2nd at New England; Nov 16th at St. Louis; Dec 14th at San Diego

Notes:  The Broncos as a team maybe have a better roster than last season, especially on defense.  Time will tell if the early Bye Week (Week 4) will be a positive or negative for them.  After the Bye Week they play two of 2013’s top defenses (49ers and Cardinals) along with two of 2013’s top offense teams (Patriots and Chargers).  Don’t expect the Broncos to have an easy go of the 2014 season since they have to play the NFC West which is the home of four of the top ten NFL defenses in 2013.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Record: 6-10

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1

Swing Games: Sept 21 at Miami; Sept 29th at home vs New England; Oct 26th at home vs St. Louis; Nov 9th at Buffalo; Dec 21st at Pittsburgh

Notes:  The Chiefs have a much more difficult schedule ahead of them in 2014 compared to last season.  Aside from having to play the four teams from the NFC West (all are 2013 Top Ten Defenses) but they also have to play well coached defensive teams like the Rams, Jets and Steelers.  The Chiefs have an efficient offense, not a high powered offense so if they get behind it will not be easy to make a comeback.   Also considering they play three of their first five games against 2013 Playoff teams, do not expect the Chiefs to start the season on a hot streak like last season.

 

Oakland Raiders

Projected Record: 5-11

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2

Swing Games: Sept 14th at home vs Houston; Oct 12th at home vs San Diego; Oct 19th at home vs Arizona; Oct 26th at Cleveland; Nov 20th at home vs Kansas City

Notes:  The Raiders have more talent on their roster than many people would expect.  The problem for them is they play many teams that have well coached defenses (The Jets, Patriots, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams) while the Raiders are starting a rookie Quarterback.  I think Derek Carr will be a better pro compared to his older brother, the Raiders will likely have a rollercoaster season in which they will be tested on both sides of the ball.

 

San Diego Chargers

Projected Record: 8-8

Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential:  +3 and -1

Swing Games: Sept 8th at Arizona; Sept 21st at Buffalo; Oct 19th at home vs Kansas City; Dec 7th at home vs New England; Dec 14th at home vs Denver

Notes:  San Diego has a good team but they face a tough lineup in 2014.  They open their season playing two of the top defenses in the NFL (Cardinals and Seahawks), play two straight road games before their Bye Week (At Denver and Miami; Bye Week is Week 10), and end their season playing four consecutive 2013 Playoff teams (Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs).  Not an easy schedule but if they can get a few games to go their way, they could still make the playoffs with the talent they have on the roster.

 

AFC West Projected Winner: Denver Broncos

 

Projected AFC Playoff Picture

1. New England Patriots

2. Denver Broncos

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. Baltimore Ravens

6. Houston Texans

 

Projected Playoff Results:

Wild Card Round - Ravens defeat Colts; Steelers defeat Texans

Divisional Round - Patriots defeat Ravens; Broncos defeat Steelers

AFC Championship - Patriots (home team) defeat Broncos