Dolphins Firing Philbin another example of the Failed "Offensive Guru"

On Monday the Miami Dolphins fired their Head Coach Joe Philbin and installed former NFL Tight End Dan Campbell as the Interim Head Coach.  This will be Miami’s fourth Head Coach since 2008, a period of years with only one playoff appearance. Philbin represents another failure of the so called “Offensive Gurus” in the NFL as Head Coaches.  While the term “failure” is a subjective and overused term in the sports world, history speaks for itself.

The NFL has overvalued men who are offensive coaches and coordinators for decades, turning these men into Head Coaches all over the league.  Whether it’s Mike Martz, Jim Zorn, Marty Mornhiweg, Mike Sherman, Steve Spurrier, or Mark Trestman, there is a long list of “geniuses” or “gurus” who were supposed to turn teams around and revolutionize franchises.  In fact only four teams over the last 15 years have won a Super Bowl with a Head Coach with an offensive coaching background.  Even then, we should question whether those coaches won because of their offensive prowess:

Super Bowl XXXV (2001): Baltimore Ravens

Head Coach Brian Billick has a background as an Offensive Coordinator, Receivers Coach and Assistant Coach in College and NFL.  But the 2000 Baltimore Ravens are known as one of the top five defensive units in NFL history as they won 34-7 with a Quarterback who never played in Baltimore after that season (Trent Dilfer).  In fact, during his tenure as Ravens Head Coach, Billick would never be able to cultivate an offense half as high powered as the one he presided over while coaching with the Minnesota Vikings in the 1990’s.

Super Bowl XXXVII (2003): Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head Coach Jon Gruden was considered one of the top offensive coaches in the NFL before he became the Oakland Raiders then later Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach.  While Gruden revived the careers of veterans such as Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia, it was the dominant Bucs defense that earn him that Super Bowl title.  In fact, Tampa won 48-21 over Gruden’s former team, the Raiders, in a game in which the Bucs defense forced multiple turnovers and never allowed the Raiders offense to gain any real traction.  Gruden coached the Bucs for seven seasons, with only one trip to the Super Bowl, the rest of the seasons ending in failure to meet expectations.

Super Bowl XLIV (2010): New Orleans Saints

Head Coach Sean Payton spent nine years as a Quarterbacks Coach and Offensive Coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, and Dallas Cowboys before being hired to his first job as Head Coach with the Saints.  Despite having one of the top Quarterbacks in NFL history in Drew Brees, the Saints won their Super Bowl thanks to their defense.  The Saints went into the playoffs with a defense top five in the league in Interceptions and least points scored against.  In the Super Bowl they won 31-17 limiting another future Hall of Fame Quarterback, Peyton Manning, to only one passing touchdown all game.

Super Bowl XLV (2011): Green Bay Packers

Head Coach Mike McCarthy was a long time Quarterbacks Coach and Offensive Coordinator with the Chiefs, Packers, Saints, and 49ers before returning to Green Bay to be their new Head Coach.  What is forgotten about that 2010 Green Bay Packers team was how good their defense was. The unit was top ten in the NFL that season in Least Points Per Game Against, Total Yards Against, and Turnovers Forced.  The Packers 31-25 victory was the icing on the cake of a great season for a talented all-around team.

The last high powered offense to win  Super Bowl without a good defense was the 1999 St. Louis Rams and even they needed a last second clutch defensive play to win the game.  Yet the NFL is still obsessed with the “hot coordinator” who gets labelled an offensive “genius” or “guru”.   The long list of “failed” Head Coaches in the NFL over the last 20 years is predominantly men with offensive coaching backgrounds.  Part of the issue is some people are not cut out to be Head Coaches, such coaches are specialists not executive game managers.  Others do not succeed because they are all about a “system” or “scheme” then find out that not being flexible with their game plans leads to limited results in the NFL.  This is a major reason why so many college coaches do not succeed in the NFL, In professional team sports a coach must structure a game plan around his talent, not force pieces into their system.

Being an NFL Head Coach is more than having a high Football IQ and being great talent evaluator, they must almost manage personalities of players and the coaching staff.  There is some psychology involved in coaching that gets overlooked.  In order to bring out the best in a player the coach must understand what motivates that individual, see through the obvious skills and help unlock what that player is truly capable of on game day.  It is not enough to know a player has great potential; the coach must also bring that talent out of the player in order to help them succeed.

This a major reason why so many of the successful NFL Head Coaches come from a defensive coaching background.  As a defensive position coach or defensive coordinator, success is more dependent on bringing out the skills of players they coach than it is about scheme.  Head Coaches such as Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll have success because they see the potential of their players then turn that potential into usable talent by putting players in a position to be successful.  Both coaches understand that without the players, all the hours of structure, game plans, research, etc is useless if the players cannot execute on game day.  Also what makes both of these coaches successful is the fact they have learn from past failures.

This is what really differentiates great coaches from subpar ones: the ability to see what they did wrong in the past, learn from it, and take those learning experiences into the next opportunity.  Too many of these offensive “gurus” and “geniuses” are overconfident in their systems and buy into their own hype so deeply they become arrogant.  The old saying “Pride comes before a fall” plays out in the NFL from week to week during games and press conferences, as these coaches show their insecurities while being questioned about what is going on with their teams. 

Look back on all the “successful” NFL Head Coaches with offensive coaching backgrounds.  Andy Reid was at his best in Philadelphia with Jim Johnson’s defenses wreaking havoc on opponents keep games within reach.  Sean Payton’s Saints and Mike McCarthy’s Packers have high scoring offenses led by top talent Quarterbacks yet haven’t been back to the Super Bowl without a good defense to slow down opponents.  Jason Garrett’s Cowboys couldn’t get over that habitual 8-8 record until they had a defense to compliment the offense.  Even Head Coaches such as Gary Kubiak and Bruce Arians know that without a solid defense to make up the difference when their offenses falter then they cannot win games.

The firing of Joe Philbin only amplifies the importance of the old saying “Defense wins championships” in the NFL.  Football is the ultimate team game and in order for a team to be successful, they need the players, all of them, to execute on game day.  For all of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady record breaking seasons as Quarterbacks, none of them won a Super Bowl in those years.  I certainly do not think that is a coincidence.  

Top 4 Takeaway Thoughts after NFL Week 4 Games

With the first quarter of the 2015 NFL season in the books, here are some of my takeaway thoughts after Week 4:

1. Too many Mediocre Kickers in the NFL.

The bizarre trend started on Thursday night when Josh Scobee of the Pittsburgh Steelers missed two Field Goals at the end of the game, allowing the Baltimore Ravens chances to tie and win the game.  Twenty-four hours later, the Steelers released Scobee and signed Chris Boswell to be their new Kicker.

 On Sunday the Philadelphia Eagles had Caleb Sturgis as their Kicker with Cody Parkey out for the season with a groin injury; Sturgis went on to miss a field goal attempt and an extra point attempt. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kicker Kyle Brindza went 1 for 3 on Field Goal attempts this past Sunday AND missed an extra point; he is only hitting on 50 percent of his field goals in 2015.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had two opportunities to win their game versus the Colts on Sunday, but their Kicker Jason Myers missed both Field Goal attempts.

On the flip side veterans of over ten plus years in the league Adam Vinateri, Robbie Gould and Sebastian Janikowski are consistent every year, averaging over 80 percent accuracy for their careers.  Also Atlanta Falcons have Matt Bryant and the Baltimore Ravens have Justin Tucker, both reliable kickers their teams know they can depend on.  Furthermore the Denver Broncos Brandon McManus is the team’s third full time place Kicker in the last ten years, all three of those kickers have a career average of over 70 percent accuracy.

The truth is that with the way the game is played in the NFL in 2015 Kickers are under-valued and teams are not doing a good enough job at evaluating talent or preparing their Kickers for Game Day.  The Steelers, Eagles, and Jaguars all lost on Sunday no thanks to their Kickers but none of these teams learned from the history of these players.  I always find it ironic when teams assume a guy will play different for their team because of the player’s “talent”.  With so many kickers in the NFL missing extra points and field goals, it is becoming ugly and teams need to do a better job at scouting along with development of their Kickers.

2. Devonta Freeman has “Wally Pip’ed” Tevin Coleman in Atlanta.

Coming into the 2015 season there was a battle in training camp for the Atlanta Falcons starting Running Back position.  Devonta Freeman coming into his 2^nd season after being drafted out of Florida State put up lackluster performances during the Pre-season leading to Rookie RB Tevin Coleman being named the starter.  But Coleman got injured opening the door for Freeman to get an opportunity to start the last two weeks.  Freeman has scored three rushing touchdowns in each game and compiled 342 Total Yards from scrimmage in two games.

Hall of Fame Yankees First Baseman Lou Gehrig was a “nobody” until starting First Baseman Wally Pipp took a day off due to a “migraine headache”. Gehrig would then go on to start 2,130 games in a row for the Yankees.   While I am not saying Devonta Freeman will be a Hall of Fame Running Back, I think it is fair to assume that Freeman has a strangle hold on the starting Running back position in Atlanta.  Coleman is a rookie, he is going to have to wait his turn when he returns from injury as that starting position is no longer exclusively his anymore.

3. The Eagles and Dolphins are a mess for a good reason.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins are 1-3 after Week Four of the 2015 NFL season for a good reason.  Neither team has learned from the past.  Both teams have been down this path before, having an offseason of big talent acquisitions then start the season playing underwhelming football.  The reality is, that building a team through free agency and trades rarely equals success.  You cannot buy wins and championships in the NFL.  If you could then the Washington Redskins would be a dynasty by now.

The Eagles have tried to build a team by unloading most of the players from the previous head coach and bringing in players Chip Kelly believes are good fit for his program.  But instead of building a team, he is trying to “plug and play” players as parts in a machine.  The Eagles have made the mistake, like many before, of overlooking the fundamentals of the game in order to be on the “cutting edge”.  The Eagles have seemingly regressed the last couple years as their Head Coach has unloaded talent and not replaced them with comparable skill players.  Spending a lot of money does not equal wins; it just means Byron Maxwell and Demarco Murray got paid for past performances.

The Dolphins have had roster turnover every year since Head Coach Joe Philbin arrived in Miami.  Instead of building a team around Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins have been swapping in and out players like pieces of a jig-saw puzzle looking for the “right combination”.  They dish out big money for Defensive Lineman Ndamukong Suh but they let reliable players such as Wide receiver Brian Hartline and Defensive Lineman Jared Odrick leave.  The team has played underwhelming on offense and defense in 2015.

I have said this numerous times: teams cannot buy championships or fabricate chemistry.  No team in NFL history has ever had great success with this formula yet the Dolphins and Eagles insist that it can work.  I remember someone asked about the arrogance of Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly and ineptitude of Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin in recent weeks; it appears both adjectives might be true looking at how 2015 has played out.

4. The Broncos, Panthers and Packers are undefeated in 2015 thanks to defense.

We have been inundated by the media for years about how a team needs a “franchise Quarterback” in order to win in the NFL.  Quarterback is one of the most important position in all of sports, I do not disagree, but Football is still a team sport and the unit must work together in order to win.  While Peyton Manning is a future Hall of Famer, Cam Newton is one of the most talented players in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the top Quarterback in the NFL, all of these teams are winning games thanks to the efforts of their defenses.

The Packers and Panthers defenses have only allowed a total of 71 points against in 4 games this season, an average of 17.8 points per game against.  Meanwhile the Broncos have allowed only 69 points against, an average of 17.3 points per game against.  These three teams are among the top defenses in the NFL in 2015 and after the first quarter of the season they deserve recognition.  Peyton Manning has looked subpar based on his own standards, Cam Newton has a below average group of receivers, and Aaron Rodgers has injuries to his Wide Receivers.  These Pro Bowl Quarterbacks can thank their defenses for coming to their aid to help their teams win games.

By the way, do you know the team that has allowed the least number of points against so far in 2015? The New York Jets with a 3-1 win-loss record have allowed a total of 55 points against, an average in 4 games of 13.8 points per game against.  In the era of high powered offenses and Quarterbacks getting paid multi-million dollar contracts, the old adage of “Defense wins championships” still carries weight.

2015 NFL preview: NFC North

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC North:

Chicago Bears

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Packers; 11/1 vs Vikings; 11/22 vs Bronocs; 12/6 vs 49ers; 12/27 @ Buccaneers

Synopsis: Interesting changes have come to the Chicago Bears this offseason with the hiring of new Head Coach John Fox and departure of Pro Bowl Wide Receiver Brandon Marshall.  Fox will be overseeing a team that has talent but some major weak points. The defense is led by a strong group of linebackers with Jared Allen, Jonathan Bostic, and Lamarr Houston. The question is the strength and depth of their defensive line.  The defensive line is very important in a 3-4 defense because those lineman are responsible for engaging the offensive lineman in order for the Linebackers to run free in pursuit of the ball carrier and collapse the pocket around the opposing Quarterback.

The Bears offense does features a Pro Bowl Running Back in Matt Forte along with dynamic Wide Receiver Alson Jeffry. Despite the talented weapons on offense, starting Quarterback Jay Cutler is still an enigma; great physical skills but not the best decision maker. Whether the Bears make the playoffs or not rests solely on whether the offense can avoid making costly mistakes and if the defense can play up to their talent.  

Detroit Lions

2015 Projected Record: 9-7

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Chargers; 9/20 @ Vikings; 9/27 vs Broncos; 10/11 vs Cardinals; 11/1 @ Chiefs; 11/26 vs Eagles; 1/3 @ Bears

Synopsis: There is no question the Detroit Lions have a talented roster heading into the 2015 season.  A high powered offense headlined by Pro Bowl Quarterback Matthew Stafford and All-Pro Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson are complimented by solid, well-constructed defense that includes Linebacker DeAndre Levy and Defensive End Ezekiel Ansah.

The Lions, though, will have to navigate a difficult schedule if they are to get into the playoffs.  Three of their first three games of the season are difficult matchups away from home (Chargers, Vikings and Seahawks).  Furthermore the schedule they have in December is brutal with divisional rival game versus the Packers followed by two weeks of difficult matchups at St. Louis and at New Orleans.  This team has the talent to be a playoff contender, but their schedule will not make it easy on them.

Green Bay Packers

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Bears; 9/20 vs Seahawks; 10/18 vs Chargers; 11/1 @ Broncos; 12/3 @ Lions

Synopsis: The Green Bay Packers have starting at Quarterback arguably the best player at his position: Aaron Rodgers. I know the Packers will be without their top Wide Receiver Jordy Nelson for the season but this offense is still high octane. Wide Receivers Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are both dynamic playmakers who are complimented by the power running game of Running Back Eddie Lacy. The key will be defensive performance by an underrated unit led by Defensive Lineman BJ Raji and Linebacker Clay Matthews. If the Packers defense can hold up against high powered opponents such as Chargers, Broncos, Lions, and Cowboys than this team can set themselves up for a run at the Super Bowl

Minnesota Vikings

2015 Projected Record: 9-7

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Lions; 9/27 vs Chargers; 11/8 vs Rams; 12/6 vs Seahawks; 1/3 @ Packers

Synopsis: The Minnesota Vikings enter 2015 with a rested and ready to go Adrian Peterson at Running Back. Peterson is considered the best Running Back in the NFL and will be a great compliment for second year starting Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  The Vikings have constructed a solid roster on the offensive side to support Bridgewater and I expect the young Quarterback to exceed many expectations this season.

Meanwhile the Vikings defense is an underrated unit that is a solid mix of talented veterans and dynamic young athletes.  This team will be challenged throughout the 2015 season as they will be matching up with six teams boasting high scoring offenses (Lions, Chargers, Broncos, Packers, Falcons, and Giants).  The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint; if the Vikings can be consistent throughout the year they have a chance at making the playoffs. 

Top Ten Thursday: Top Ten NFL Free Agency "Busts"

The NFL Offseason is here and free agency has had some surprises already.  But I cannot escape the memories of past free agency “busts”.  So, its Thursday and its time for my Top Ten for the week.  Lets review my list of Top Ten NFL Free Agency “Fails” from past off-seasons.
 

10. Jeff Garcia (Left the San Francisco 49ers, Signs with Cleveland Browns in 2004)

After being selected to the Pro Bowl three times in four years, Garcia was a hot commodity when he hit the free agent market in 2004.  The Cleveland Browns coveted a talented starting Quarterback after years of debacles at that position.  But signing Garcia to a 4 year, 25 million dollar contract didn’t fix anything.  Garcia was 3-7 as a starter and played mediocre.  Garcia showed though that the problem was the Browns, not him, because he resurrected his career in 2006 when he played stellar football for the Philadelphia Eagles then became a Pro Bowler again in 2007 in Tampa under the guidance of QB guru Jon Gruden. 
 

9. Ahman Green (Left Green Bay Packers, Signed with Houston Texans in 2007)

Green was a consistent performer in Green Bay rushing for 1,000 yards six times in seven years.  In 2007 the Houston Texans were still in the “football wilderness” trying to find the key to being a winning team in the NFL.  They thought one of keys to winning would be a good running back.  But when Houston gave Green a four year, 23 million dollar deal they did not know that Green would never again rush for more than 300 yards in a single season.  Maybe with a last name like “Green” he was only meant to ever be successful in “Green Bay”.  Of course, getting older and playing a position in the NFL that gets a lot of punishment might be a better explanation for Green’s career downturn.
 

8. Desmond Howard  (Left Green Bay Packers, Signed with Oakland Raiders in 1997)

After leading the NFL in Punt Return Yards and Touchdowns, Desmond Howard had a breakout game in the Super Bowl.  His 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown set the tone for the Packers as they would win Super Bowl XXXI.  That offseason Oakland Raiders pursued Howard hard and signed him to a four year, six million dollar deal.  While this is the smallest deal of the “fails” on this list, what made Howard’s tenure in Oakland a “bust” was the fact that the Raiders tried to convert Howard in to a playmaker at Wide receiver.  And the Raiders failed.  Interesting that Howard would return to the NFC after two seasons in Oakland and THEN he got selected to the Pro Bowl as a member of the Detroit Lions in 2000.
 

7. Nnamdi Asomuga (Left Oakland Raiders, Signed with Eagles in 2011)

There was a time in the NFL when Asomugha was in the discussion as one of the top defensive backs in the NFL.  After an season with eight interceptions then three straight Pro Bowl selections, Nnamdi was considered one of the top free agents available in 2011.  Asomugha got paid by the Philadelphia Eagles but that investment didn’t pay off on the football field.  Despite snagging four interceptions in two seasons Asomugha played average at best and never lived up to the hype of him as an elite cornerback.  He got beat on numerous plays and after two seasons the Eagles released him back into the world of free agency.
 

6. Elvis Grbac (Left Kansas City, Signed with Baltimore Ravens in 2001)

Elvis Grbac was coming off the best season of his career and a Pro Bowl selection.  People in the media thought Grbac was entering the prime of his career.  The Baltimore Ravens were looking to upgrade at Quarterback after Head Coach Brian Billick expressed his frustration with the previous starting Quarterback Trent Dilfer even though the team just won the Super Bowl.  When Grbac arrived in Baltimore he made the bold statement “This is a great team…I am going to make it better.”  Instead, Grbac played mediocre throwing 15 touchdowns and 18 interceptions and was outplayed by older, backup QB Randall Cunningham when Grbac got injured mid-season.  After losing in the playoffs, the Ravens asked Grbac to restructure his contract to help the Ravens with cap room, Grbac was indignant and the Ravens released him.  Shortly thereafter, Grbac retired unceremoniously. 
 

5. Larry Brown (Left Dallas Cowboys, signed with Oakland Raiders in 1996)

Another Super Bowl MVP who got a payday from the Oakland Raiders.  In Super Bowl XXX Larry Brown had the great fortune of being the “other cornerback” opposite of Deion Sanders and because the Steelers didn’t gameplan to avoid Larry Brown, he ended up with 2 interceptions and a Super Bowl MVP.  So when Larry Brown was given a five year, 12.5 million dollar contract, Brown should have given Deion Sanders a cut of that money.  Brown had more interceptions in that Super Bowl than the rest of his career, 2 in the Super Bowl, 1 in next three seasons.   
 

4. Alvin Harper (Left Dallas Cowboys, Signed with Buccaneers in 1995)

Another Dallas Cowboy who couldn’t perform up to the expectations of a big free agency contract.  After four seasons in Dallas Harper signed a four year, 10.6 million dollar contract and was expected to be the Buccaneers top receiver.  In two seasons in Tampa he caught three touchdowns total and was out of the league within four years.  Harper found out how hard it is to rack up big statistics and win games when you don’t have Michael Irvin, Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith as teammates.
 

3. Dana Stubblefield (Left san Francisco 49ers, Signed with Washington Redskins in 1998)

From 1993 to 1997 as a San Francisco 49er Stubblefield was a Pro Bowl selection three times and recorded 15 sacks in 1997.  In 1998 he received a six year, 36 million dollar deal under the expectations he would continue to be a great player.  Instead Stubblefield had a total of seven sacks and 87 tackles.  Underwhelming numbers for a guy who was making an average salary of six million per year.  Ironically he returned to the 49ers after being released by the Redskins and in two seasons Stubblefield produced a total of seven sacks and 53 tackles.  Seems like he should have never left San Francisco.
 

2. Jeff George (Left Minnesota Vikings, Signed with Washington Redskins in 2000)

Another free agency bust for the Redskins happened a couple years later when they didn’t realize Jeff George was “fool’s gold”.  After a surprising 12 game run in Minnesota when George racked up 2,816 passing yards and 23 touchdowns in just 12 games, he got “rewarded” a four year, 18 million dollar contract and the starting QB job in Washington.  He proceeded to throw 7 touchdowns, 9 interceptions in 8 games over two seasons and had confrontations with members of the media and the Redskins coaching staff.  The former number one overall draft selection has not played in a NFL regular season game since 2001.
 

1. Albert Haynesworth (Left Tennessee Titans, Signed with Washington Redskins in 2009)

For the Redskins, Haynesworth was more than just another free agency “bust”, he was an epic failure after signing a seven year, 100 million dollar contract.  Within three years Haynesworth found himself on the outside looking in as NFL teams banished him for his lack of work ethic, bad character, and his poor performance.  After being selected to the Pro Bowl in two consecutive seasons and racking up a total of 14.5 sacks and three forced fumbles, Haynesworth was obviously only in it for the money.  He made sure he worked the system and got around 42 million of that 100 million dollar deal he signed.  Apparently buying boats and criticizing other players was a better use of Haynesworth’s than playing up to expectations or his abilities.