2015 NFL Preview: AFC East

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Patriots; 10/4 vs Giants; 11/12 at Jets; 11/29 @ Chiefs; 12/27 vs Cowboys

Synopsis: There’s a new culture in Buffalo under new Head Coach Rex Ryan.  Ryan brings energy and attitude lacking from recent previous head coaches.  We know that under Rex’s direction his team play good defenses and this year will be no different.  The Bills have a solid balance of young and veteran talent on the defensive side of the ball.  At worst this will be a top 12 defense in the NFL this season.

The biggest question marks revolve around the offense. Tyrod Taylor has been named the starting Quarterback for 2015 and this will be his first season in the NFL as a starting QB.  Also coming into the season there are injury concerns for All Pro Running Back LeSean McCoy with uncertainty exactly how his injury will affect his play during the season.  If the Bills offense plays up to their potential and the defense executes consistent, this is a potential playoff team.

Miami Dolphins

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+3/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Texans; 11/22 vs Cowboys; 11/29 @ Jets; 12/6 vs Ravens; 1/3 vs Patriots

Synopsis: In 2015 the Dolphins have the opportunity to take a step forward and contend for the playoffs.  The real key is the progression of whether Ryan Tannehill will make or break Miami’s season; if Tannehill will continue his development, you can expect a big season from the Dolphins.  The team has surrounded Tannehill with new weapons such as Wide Receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings along with former Pro Bowl Tight End Jordan Cameron.  

Looking at the Dolphins schedule they have the chance to start their season 6-0 thanks to several returning starters on defense.  As for any NFL team, so much is dependent on the play of their Quarterback this season and time will tell how much Tannehill has grown as a professional.

New England Patriots

2015 Projected Record: 12-4

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/20 @ Bills; 10/11 @ Cowboys; 10/18 @ Colts; 11/15 @ Giants; 11/29 @ Broncos; 12/6 vs Eagles

Synopsis: The defending Super Bowl champions have dealt with an offseason full of distractions thanks to “Deflate Gate”.  Now that saga has been put on the back burner, the team can get back to focusing on football with their starting Quarterback, Tom Brady.  They must now overcome injuries, suspensions, and players lea

ving via free agency to get back to the playoffs to defend their title.  Despite everything, this is still a talented team with a future Hall of Fame Quarterback (Tom Brady), the top Tight End in the NFL (Rob Gronkowski), one of the most dynamic Defensive Ends in the NFL (Chandler Jones), and one of the most consistent Kickers in the league (Steven Gostkowski).  A well-rounded team always has a great chance to make a playoff run and the Patriots are well-built for another Super Bowl run.

New York Jets

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Browns; 10/18 vs Redskins; 11/12 vs Bills; 12/6 @ Giants; 12/27 vs Patriots

Synopsis: Todd Bowles’ first season as Jets Head Coach does not look very promising.  Before the Bye Week the Jets have three tough games: Playing at the Colts (a perennial playoff team), home versus the Eagles (One of the top offenses in the NFL), and then go play the Dolphins in Miami (divisional rival).  Later in the year they have to play at New England, at Oakland, at Houston, and at Dallas; all tough matchups also.  

Their starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid player but he is not the type of player who has shown he can carry a team on his back.  The strength of the Jets will be their defense; the combination of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie as the starting Cornerbacks is one of the best combos in the NFL.  Also their front seven lead by dynamic Defensive Lineman Muhammed Wilkerson and rookie Leonard Williams will help keep games close for the Jets this season.  But in the end, that tough schedule may be too much for them to overcome.

The Catholic 7, Mark Teixeira, & Darrell Revis: Sports Quick Hits for 3-6-13

As I write this blog post, the winds sound bad outside but I still have power and I am safe, thank God!  So, lets distract ourselves from the miserable weather of the northeast and talk some sports.

The "Catholic Seven" Get Even

While it is not official, the break up of the conference known as the Big East has crossed its biggest hurdle: money.  While the Big East was trying to keep up with the changing college sports landscape by adding more high profile football schools it was neglecting the historic roots of its basketball members.  With schools such as Syracuse, Rutgers, Norte Dame, and Pittsburgh leaving for "greener pastures" the Big East's "answer" to this was to replace these staples of the Big East with schools such as Temple, Navy, Memphis and Houston.  While all of these schools coming into the Big East have solid athletic programs, this really hurt the conference in their negotiations for a new TV contract.  Getting left out in the cold were the schools known as "The Catholic Seven".  Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette and DePaul are well known for their basketball tradition and basketball is the major financial athletic programs at those schools, not football.  So these seven universities have set the ground work to leave and create their own athletic conference.  But here's the kicker: its going to be called the "Big East" and they get to play their conference tournament at Madison Square Garden.  Also, these seven schools get to keep all money generated by their athletic programs for receiving bids to the NCAA tournament.

To all of this I say, good for them!  While college football is a major money maker for numerous universities, to neglect other schools in a conference for the sake of football and tv money is poor management by the Big East.  So now the "Catholic 7" get to keep the rights to the name of the Big East and keep the "basketball mecca" in New York City as their conference tournament home as a consolation prize.  Of course, the "left over" schools are going to make out well too.  Cincinnati, South Florida and Connecticut will receive a large portion of the exit fees being paid by the colleges leaving the Big East. 

So keep all of this in mind the next time you hear a politician or university president talk about how "this is about the kids" because we all know, its really about the money!

Mark Teixeira has a wrist injury, again

As a former high school athlete who suffered a serious wrist injury, I can understand what Mark Teixeira is going through.  He had to pull out of the World Baseball Classic after he injured his wrist during a batting practice session.  While reports claim he will miss 8 to 10 weeks, even when he is healthy again he has to get his swing back. 

Teixeira's wrist injury will probably haunt him for the rest of his career.  I played baseball in high school and some in college.  With a past wrist injury it will always affect your swing.  The speed of a baseball swing is in the wrist, all great hitters preach this in books and baseball camps.  For a really good hitter like Mark this will be a problem cause if his wrist does not heal or he does not rehab properly it will hamper his ability to hit for average.  I specifically focus on his average cause for his career Teixeira was a .302 career hitter before the last two seasons.  In 2011 and 2012 he had a batting average of .248 and .251.  This is a major drop off.  His power wont drop as much because the base of a hitters power is in the torque produced by his hips and the strength in his shoulders to generate the inertia.  The more torque and inertia is generated through a hitter's bat when he makes contact will determine how hard the ball is hit and how far it could potentially travel.

I know from personal experience that a wrist injury can forever affect one as a hitter.  While as a kid in little league I was a good hitter.  But after my wrist injury at 14 years old my swing was never the same.  When I made good contact I was able to generate some good hits and some power.  But my wrist was never the same in maintaining balance for an even swing through the zone.  I hope for Mark Teixeira's sake he is able to recover from this injury because he still has the potential for atleast a few really good seasons.  Only time will tell how much his wrist problems will hold him back.

Makes the Yankees wonder about their 100 plus million dollar investment in a few offseasons ago.

Darrelle Revis and his football future

Recovering from a major injury is always a fight uphill for any athlete.  But Darrelle Revis has more to worry about than just his rehab: where will he play next season?  The New York Jets have said all the right things in public, but behind the scenes they are shopping their Pro Bowl star.  Revis, who is considered one of the top Cornerbacks in football, is available to the highest bidder.  The Buccaneers have the cap room and the need for a top notch cornerback.  Some think he may end up with the 49ers because San Francisco has a plethora of draft picks to make a major offer..  There is also speculation that the Falcons would want to aquire Revis since they released Dunta Robinson and they need another ball-hawk in their defense secondary opposite of Asante Samuel.  The possibility for a Revis-For-Dummervil deal is a popular rumor and would work without either the Jets or Broncos under the salary cap.

But a bigger question for Revis is how will he perform in a new enviroment.  He has been a Jet his whole career and has played for defensive minded head coaches such as Rex Ryan and Eric Mangini.  Where ever Revis ends up people should lower their expectations for him because aside from coming off a major injury, he will need time to adjust to his new teammates, new defensive scheme, and a new football enviroment.  While I have no doubt Revis has the drive, work ethic and talent to excel with any NFL team, he may need some time to adjust.  The 2013 season may not be the best for Darrelle Revis, but expect him to bounce back and have a great 2014 season for sure, just to prove to his peers and competition he still has what it takes to be the best cornerback in the NFL.