Showing posts with label rex ryan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rex ryan. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

New NFL Head Coaches and Their Unexpected Success


Every offseason, no matter the team sport, there are coaches fired and new ones hired.  The hope of these franchises is that these new leaders can put the team in a position to win games and be a successful organization on and off the field. But success is not always an automatic result with a new Head Coach. Some coaches are not right organizational or roster fit while others are not best prepared for the role they are undertaking.

During Week One of the 2015 NFL regular season we saw three new Head Coaches get wins in their first game who many expected to lose opening week. These men are looking to bring change in their new organizations and a winning culture back to franchises whose fan bases who feel like playoff success is a distant memory. Ironically, in an age of high powered offenses, all three of these head coaches come from defensive backgrounds.  I am speaking of Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn.  Let us dig a little deeper into each situation.

-Rex Ryan, Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have not been to the playoffs in over 15 years, since Doug Flutie had his career resurrected in northern New York.  The Bills have shuffled through multiple Quarterbacks and Head Coaches; they have been on the short end of multiple poor roster moves and draft choices for years. The Bills needed a head coach who was more than just a good qualified candidate. They needed a man who could change the culture in Buffalo.  In hiring Rex Ryan, the Bills gained a Head Coach who changed the attitudes and expectations of another franchise, a coach who has shown consistency as a defensive coach with great defenses.

In week one the Buffalo Bills won a game against a team led by one of the top five Quarterbacks in the NFL. They did not just win their game versus Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Bills executed well in all facets of offense and defense. With starting Quarterback Tyrod Taylor the Bills offense displayed a solid balance between running and passing attacks as Taylor was composed, leading the team on productive possessions over and over again.  On the defensive side, the team kept frustrating the Colts offense, putting them in difficult situations while pressuring the Quarterback multiple times.

The Bills have the opportunity to build on their week one success as they head into another tough matchup versus the Patriots. The positive is that it is another game being playing at home so they will have the crowd behind them.  Rex Ryan has captained teams to the playoffs before and this Bills team may be the most talented offense he has ever worked with.  As a defensive minded coach, Ryan takes the most pride in his defenses so we can expect the Bills to continue to execute each week and frustrate many offenses.

-Dan Quinn, Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons

Some people were surprised when Dan Quinn got the job with the Atlanta Falcons.  Not because he wasn’t a qualified or good candidate, but other “big names” were considered for the job. According to reports, Quinn was the Falcons number one choice because of the organization he was coming from. Quinn has spent four of the last six seasons on the Seattle Seahawks coaching staff, a franchise that has played in two straight Super Bowls and been a consistent winner for the last few years.

The Falcons have experienced sporadic success over the last 18 years with three trips to the NFC Championship game and a Super Bowl appearance. But this playoff success has not been consistent under the leadership of any previous head coaches. The Falcons win over the Philadelphia Eagles in week one of the season displayed something that has been missing from Atlanta for years: a defense that executes consistently.  With Quarterback Matt Ryan no one denies the Falcons ability to put up points offensively from week to week; it is the defense that has been left with the big question mark hanging over it. Slowing down a potent Eagles offense was a big step forward for the Falcons.

Maintaining playoff success is always predicated on a team’s ability to execute on both offense and defense. If the Falcons can maintain their level of play and even improve it as the season goes along, they could be playoff bound.  Dan Quinn knows what it takes for a team to be a successful franchise and he is incorporating that down in Atlanta.

-Todd Bowles, Head Coach of the New York Jets

This will be the fourth straight head coach the New York Jets have hired with a defensive background. Each coach has come with different strengths to the Jets, but Todd Bowles is different in the fact he already has some head coaching experience.

Todd has served as an interim Head Coach on two different occasions so he is familiar with the management responsibilities of the job.  In the Jets week one win, their defense was very good and the offense ran the ball efficiently. Some may say that has nothing to do with Bowles since these are “Rex Ryan’s players” and the Cleveland Browns were without their starting Quarterback for most of the game.

The truth is that Todd Bowles has changed the attitude of the Jets on and off the field.  Bowles has gotten both veterans and young players to buy into the team concept.  Under previous head coaches the team was coached by disciplinarians or coaches players liked so much they wanted to hang out with “the boss”. Todd does a great job of balancing between structure and discipline along with creating a positive environment and locker room players want to be in.


Having the right attitude for a team is more than just one or two aspects; it is more than just chemistry, coaching style, and organizational structure.  Success is bred from example and the one who sets that example is the leader. In the NFL the Head Coach sets the standard for the entire organization.  The Head Coach is the face of the team in front of the public and media. A Head Coach has to know how to handle players and put them in a position to be successful.

In week one of the 2015 NFL season we saw these three men bring out the best in their teams and put them in a position to win games. In Buffalo, we see Rex Ryan taking a defense with talented players and make them a cohesive unit that executes well from down to down.  Also, Ryan is a confidence builder who gave Tyrod Taylor the vote of confidence as the starting Quarterback. That confidence from the Head Coach allowed Taylor to have the repetitions in practice to be able to excel on game day and that confidence from the top filters down to the other players on the team.

In Atlanta, we saw a defense that was able to hold a high powered Eagles offensive in check for most of the game. That can be directly correlated with their Head Coach, Dan Quinn, who knew how to game plan against the Eagles in a way to put his team in a position to win the game. On paper, the Falcons defense looks average at best according to NFL standards. A good coach knows how to bring out the best in his team so they can perform at their best on game day. On Monday Night, Dan Quinn may have been more excited during the game at how his team played overall than anyone else.  That positive attitude is infectious and gives his players the confidence knowing this man is interested in them being successful.

With the Jets we saw a team with discipline that executed well on both sides of the ball.  This team played for each other, putting the interests of winning the game ahead of individual achievements. There are many talented players who are top tier at their position who went out of their way to use their experience and skills to better the team.  The Jets played as a cohesive unit and even when the coaches had to talk to players about mistakes, those players are receptive to instruction.


In life, the leadership sets the standards for those they work with and the NFL is no exception. Good coaches know how to uplift their players, put them in a position to do their best work and create a positive environment for success. Time will tell how Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn do in the long run, but week one is a positive sign of what the future holds for those coaches and their teams.

Monday, September 7, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: AFC East

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Patriots; 10/4 vs Giants; 11/12 at Jets; 11/29 @ Chiefs; 12/27 vs Cowboys

Synopsis: There’s a new culture in Buffalo under new Head Coach Rex Ryan.  Ryan brings energy and attitude lacking from recent previous head coaches.  We know that under Rex’s direction his team play good defenses and this year will be no different.  The Bills have a solid balance of young and veteran talent on the defensive side of the ball.  At worst this will be a top 12 defense in the NFL this season.
The biggest question marks revolve around the offense. Tyrod Taylor has been named the starting Quarterback for 2015 and this will be his first season in the NFL as a starting QB.  Also coming into the season there are injury concerns for All Pro Running Back LeSean McCoy with uncertainty exactly how his injury will affect his play during the season.  If the Bills offense plays up to their potential and the defense executes consistent, this is a potential playoff team.


Miami Dolphins
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+3/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Texans; 11/22 vs Cowboys; 11/29 @ Jets; 12/6 vs Ravens; 1/3 vs Patriots

Synopsis: In 2015 the Dolphins have the opportunity to take a step forward and contend for the playoffs.  The real key is the progression of whether Ryan Tannehill will make or break Miami’s season; if Tannehill will continue his development, you can expect a big season from the Dolphins.  The team has surrounded Tannehill with new weapons such as Wide Receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings along with former Pro Bowl Tight End Jordan Cameron.  
Looking at the Dolphins schedule they have the chance to start their season 6-0 thanks to several returning starters on defense.  As for any NFL team, so much is dependent on the play of their Quarterback this season and time will tell how much Tannehill has grown as a professional.


New England Patriots
2015 Projected Record: 12-4
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/20 @ Bills; 10/11 @ Cowboys; 10/18 @ Colts; 11/15 @ Giants; 11/29 @ Broncos; 12/6 vs Eagles

Synopsis: The defending Super Bowl champions have dealt with an offseason full of distractions thanks to “Deflate Gate”.  Now that saga has been put on the back burner, the team can get back to focusing on football with their starting Quarterback, Tom Brady.  They must now overcome injuries, suspensions, and players lea
ving via free agency to get back to the playoffs to defend their title.  Despite everything, this is still a talented team with a future Hall of Fame Quarterback (Tom Brady), the top Tight End in the NFL (Rob Gronkowski), one of the most dynamic Defensive Ends in the NFL (Chandler Jones), and one of the most consistent Kickers in the league (Steven Gostkowski).  A well-rounded team always has a great chance to make a playoff run and the Patriots are well-built for another Super Bowl run.


New York Jets
2015 Projected Record: 5-11
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Browns; 10/18 vs Redskins; 11/12 vs Bills; 12/6 @ Giants; 12/27 vs Patriots


Synopsis: Todd Bowles’ first season as Jets Head Coach does not look very promising.  Before the Bye Week the Jets have three tough games: Playing at the Colts (a perennial playoff team), home versus the Eagles (One of the top offenses in the NFL), and then go play the Dolphins in Miami (divisional rival).  Later in the year they have to play at New England, at Oakland, at Houston, and at Dallas; all tough matchups also.  
Their starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid player but he is not the type of player who has shown he can carry a team on his back.  The strength of the Jets will be their defense; the combination of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie as the starting Cornerbacks is one of the best combos in the NFL.  Also their front seven lead by dynamic Defensive Lineman Muhammed Wilkerson and rookie Leonard Williams will help keep games close for the Jets this season.  But in the end, that tough schedule may be too much for them to overcome.

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Robert Griffin III and EJ Manuel: From 1st Round Draft Picks to Quarterback Cast Offs

During Monday’s press conference, Washington Redskins’ Head Coach Jay Gruden announced that the starting Quarterback for the 2015 season would be Kirk Cousins.  This announcement comes on the heels of the weekend preseason game in which former starting QB Robert Griffin III did not play due to concussion issues.  Gruden said that Griffin’s injury had nothing to do with the decision and that Cousins’ play during the preseason earned him the job.

These last few years have been a rollercoaster experience for the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner.  After being drafted #2 in the 2012 NFL Draft by the Redskins, Robert went on to have an excellent first season at Quarterback and as a rookie along with being a Pro Bowl selection.  But the highs of this ride took a quick turn downward when he tore ACL and LCL ligaments in his knee during a playoff game.  Since then, the last couple years have been full of injury and inconsistent play issues for Griffin.  No one has ever doubted his talent, but he is a shell of the Quarterback he was in 2012. 
In the meantime, the Redskins fired the Head Coach and General Manager who drafted Robert and brought in Jay Gruden.  Gruden, entering his second season with the Redskins, has shown by his actions and odd verbiage his disinterest in Griffin being the starting Quarterback.  He has shown preference for Cousins and Colt McCoy.  Cousins and McCoy have shown flashes of the talent they showed in college that got them drafted by NFL teams, neither has beenconsistent in displaying their abilities at the professional level.

The Redskins have players who can play the Quarterback position, but none of them are that much better than the rest.  Of the three players who were competing for the starting job: Griffin has the best throwing arm, Cousins has the high Football IQ, and McCoy has the greatest intangibles.  All of these elements make for a great college Quarterback, but in the NFL a player must have more than just one great skill. 

The truth is that this situation is just like what happened in Buffalo with Head Coach Rex Ryan’s QB competition.  Tyrod Taylor has been named the team’s starting Quarterback, despite a solid preseason from former 1st round draft selection EJ Manuel.   Both Ryan and Gruden went into this preseason with an idea of who they DIDN’T want to start at Quarterback.  Both Head Coaches did not draft the highly touted players, both Rex and Jay had preference for other players on the roster, while both players went out of their way to be professional through the whole situation.

That is the part that bothers me the most.  You have two young men in Manuel and Griffin, they try to do the right thing by working hard and be professionals in public but they are the ones cast aside by their team’s coaches.  Not that any player should be given a starting position in the NFL based just on if they handle themselves professionally; but at some point, in a world full of athletes getting arrested for numerous felonies, we spend so little time promoting the positive guys?  Yes I know Griffin is not the most well liked player in the Redskins organization, so then maybe he should be on another team.  Yes I know Manuel was overvalued by the Bills when drafted in the first round of 2013 NFL Draft, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the skill set to be a solid NFL starting Quarterback. 


While Manuel and Griffin may never live up to the expectations of the teams that drafted them, don’t be deceived into thinking Taylor and Cousins are going to be that much better than the players they beat out for the starting job.  Taylor always had the arm talent, the truth is that he is Russell Wilson Lite: an athletic Quarterback with average stature who is an ultra-competitor with underappreciated arm talent.  Cousins was always considered a lock to make an NFL roster, the truth is he is most comparable to Frank Reich: undervalued coming out of college, goes on hot streaks for a period of games but unable to sustain consistency over a full season of play. 

Time will tell what the future holds for Robert and EJ, but I think it is safe to say their futures are not with their current teams.  Both men need a fresh start and a new opportunity in the NFL.  I mean, if Michael Vick has been signed by three NFL teams since getting out of jail, Manuel and Griffin should at least be able to have long careers as journeymen Quarterbacks, worst case scenario, right? 

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Contrasting Football Philosophy on Quarterbacks: Rex Ryan vs. Andy Reid


In football there are some generic, objective truths like you need to score more points than the other team in order to win games, and turnovers are a negative on the team’s potential to win.  The wildest debates though, surround the subjective elements of the game, namely the reasoning behind different coaching philosophy.  The overwhelming reality is that any particular offensive or defensive scheme is not better than another. It is the execution by the team of the plays the coaches draw up that determine whether that strategy will actually work.  Some of the best football minds have never won a Super Bowl Championship as Head Coaches (Marv Levy, Bud Grant, Mike Martz) so Football intellect or philosophy does not equal championships.

For the sake of this discussion, I choose two head coaches who have had some playoff success, but never won a Super Bowl.  This way there is no ambiguity about who has the “best perspective”.  This discussion, again, is factoring in subjective viewpoints of a game that is dependent on eleven guys on a singular play executing their roles in order to gain any positive yards per snap of the football.  If the players cannot execute the game plan, it doesn’t matter how “smart” a coach may be.  Also, having a high Football IQ does not equal great communication skills; some coaches are great analysts on TV but they cannot translate that into sustained coaching success on the field.

Let’s first profile out two head coaches.

-Rex Ryan is a defensive minded Head Coach with a background as Baltimore Ravens Defensive Coordinator before being hired to be New York Jets Head Coach.  While in New York, he captained the ship of teams that went to two AFC Championship games, twice was 30 minutes away from a trip to the Super Bowl.   Now the Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills, Ryan has shown the ability to be a great defensive talent evaluator and has overseen teams with some of the top 15 Overall Defense and Running Offenses over his tenure as Head Coach.

-Andy Reid is an offensive minded Head Coach with a background as a former collegiate offensive lineman and Green Bay Packers Quarterbacks Coach before being hired by the Philadelphia Eagles to be Head Coach.  As Eagles Head Coach he oversaw his teams reach five NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl appearance.  Now the Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, Reid has shown the ability to maximize the abilities of his Quarterbacks and utilize multi-dimensional running backs to orchestrate his offenses.


We start with Rex Ryan’s QB philosophy because of how much his Bills’ starting Quarterback position battle has been publicized.  Over the years, Ryan has shown deference towards having a mobile Quarterback starting for his team.  His reasoning is twofold:

1. Ryan claims it is more difficult from a defensive coordinator’s perspective to prepare for a mobile Quarterback who has designed running and scrambling plays than for a QB who is less mobile and a stationary passer.  Ryan, a former Defensive Coordinator, has said numerous times he hated game planning for running Quarterbacks and that the unpredictability drove him “nuts” during the week leading up to the game.

2. Ryan also believes mobile Quarterbacks combined with an above average running attack puts the opposing defense in a precarious position because they over plan for the running game, leaving holes open for the passing offense.

Rex Ryan has already announced that Tyrod Taylor will get the start at Quarterback for the Bills’ next preseason game.  Taylor, a mobile QB with a solid throwing arm, is being giving the opportunity to take the starting job if he performs well over next couple preseason games.


Now let’s review Andy Reid’s QB philosophy.  Reid in his time as Head Coach in the NFL has only had one preseason in which he had players competing for the starting Quarterback position.  His starting QB in Kansas City is Alex Smith.  Reid’s philosophy is as follows:

1. Reid runs what is known as the “West Coast Offense”, original modern design from NFL Hall of Famer Bill Walsh. Reid’s version is using the passing attack to set up opportunities for his multi-dimensional running back.  He leans heavily on his Quarterback to read the opposing defense to find the open receiver; unlike other offenses that typically have a “Go-To” receiver on each play. His offense is designed with multiple safety valves for the Quarterback to throw to if his Wide Receivers are not immediately open.

2. Reid wants his Quarterbacks to operate from the pocket; if the QB does scramble Reid wants it to be for positive yards instead of scrambling around aimlessly.  In the past, Reid has preferred mobile Quarterbacks as his starters, but he wants to them operate from the traditional “pocket” behind the offensive line and only run as a last resort.  Also, the QB staying in behind the offensive line gives the running back a chance to slip out from behind the line of scrimmage and become a second safety valve for the quarterback in case no other receivers are open.  The longer the Quarterback stays set looking to pass, the more time the called play has to materialize.

Of Reid’s starting Quarterbacks in Philadelphia and Kansas City, five have been mobile (Donovan McNabb, Mike McMahon, Jeff Garcia, Michael Vick, and Alex Smith) so history shows Reid is not against having a mobile quarterback.  But instead of the QB functioning as an offensive weapon, Reid wants his starting Quarterback to be the Captain of the offense and orchestrate the plays as they are called on each down.


Two coaches with different backgrounds and philosophies that utilize the same type of Quarterbacks, both have made playoff runs, both have been fired from their previous jobs, both have changed the culture of the organization at both coaching stops.  So is one of them better than the other? No because both have flaws in their way of thinking, both have been inflexible and adversarial to changing their ways.

The reality is that while Ryan’s offensive philosophy makes a lot of Football sense, he lacks the discernment when judging offensive talent to properly construct the roster needed to execute that type of game plan on a consistent basis.   He also lacks the foresight to realize that certain players may not fit within a certain system or game plan.  Instead he tries to “fit square pegs into round holes” to use an old saying.

The biggest problem with Reid is that he is so committed to his offensive system, that even when he has a very talented running back, he still will pass the ball in situations when running the ball would have better odds of success.  Also, Reid is infamous for his overvaluing players with average or above average skills.  During his time in Philadelphia, he was always drafting and signing players who were specialists but lacked other skills to make them well rounded contributors to the team as a whole.  Or he would draft or sign free agents with above average all-around skills but lacked any special skills that allows the player an edge over opponents.

Lastly, both coaches are below average talent evaluators for players who play positions that are not the coach’s forte.  Reid has a history of passing over more talented players on draft day for those with specialized skill sets on defense; over time almost all of those picks came back to hurt the Eagles roster depth.  Meanwhile Ryan’s eye for offensive talent leaves something to be desired with the game plans his Jets put in place in comparison to those players drafted leaving many people questioning his long term goals.

In the long run, having a mobile Quarterback is not a “good” or “bad” idea; what is problematic is if that player is not utilized properly according to his skill set.  Rex Ryan wanted Tim Tebow to run the Wildcat Offense on random downs when Tebow excelled as a Triple-Threat Option Offense QB.  Andy Reid wanted Michael Vick to use the Passing Game to set up the running attack in Philadelphia when previously Vick had not been successful at reading defenses quickly. 


Legendary UCLA Basketball Coach John Wooden once stated “Great coaches build the system around their players; average coaches force players into their system.”  Reid and Ryan have garnered success in the NFL, but their stubbornness over the years has led to them to being fired from their previous jobs.  The mobile Quarterback is a great weapon in the NFL and has a history of winning Super Bowl titles (see Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Steve Young, and Roger Staubach as examples). But it still takes having the right talent around that QB, execution of the game plan, and the system in place bringing out the best in the leader of the offense in order to win in the NFL.  So whatever your offensive philosophical preferences, there are many more variables involved to having successful in the NFL than just if your Quarterback likes to run then throw or stay stationary then fire away.