2015 NFL Preview: AFC South

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC South:

Houston Texans

2015 Projected Record: 10-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Chiefs; 10/4 @ Falcons; 10/8 vs Colts; 11/16 @ Bengals; 11/29 vs Saints; 12/13 vs Patriots

Synopsis: If you have read any of my other divisional previews this week, you may notice I mention the Huston Texans often, specifically their defense. Already a good defense, they added a veteran presence in Defensive Tackle Vince Wilfork to a unit already led by arguably the best Defensive player in the NFL, JJ Watt. Let us not forget about the talented starting Cornerback tandem of Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph. If Linebackers Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney both stay healthy all season, the rest of the league better watch out. This team has the potential to be one of the top five defenses in 2015.

On the offensive side of the ball is the home for the greatest concern for the Texans entering 2015. They will be without Pro Bowl Running Back Arian Foster for at least the first few weeks as he recovers from surgery. The pressure will be on new starting Quarterback Brian Hoyer to lead an offense mix of young playmakers (DeAndre Hopkins and C.J. Fiedorowicz) and underrated veterans (Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts).  If they can win early on this season, this 2015 team will gain confidence that can be the momentum that carries them into the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Bills; 10/8 @ Texans; 10/18 vs Patriots; 11/8 vs Broncos; 11/22 @ Falcons; 12/6 @ Steelers

Synopsis: Since drafting their starting Quarterback Andrew Luck in 2012, the Indianapolis Colts have gotten better, advancing farther in the playoffs each year.  But 2015 will be the first year Andrew Luck will have major offensive additions around him.  During the offseason the Colts added former Pro Bowl veterans Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, adding depth to an already solid offensive team.

The key for the Colts in 2015 will be their defense and how they play against high powered offenses such as the Patriots, Saints, Broncos, Falcons and Steelers. They also have several tough road games on their schedule, traveling to play at Buffalo, Houston, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Miami. If Andrew Luck continues to play great football and the defense is able to step up to slow down opponents, the Colts will win another AFC South Divisional Title. This season, the Colts have the potential to make a run at going to the Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Dolphins; 10/11 @ Buccaneers; 10/25 vs Bills; 11/8 @ Jets; 11/29 vs Chargers; 12/20 vs Falcons

Synopsis: The Jacksonville Jaguars spent the offseason solidifying the offense around second year starting Quarterback Blake Bortles. The additions of Offensive Lineman Zane Beadles and Tight End Julius Thomas will help in Bortles development as an NFL QB.  The odd part about the Jaguars roster is their defense. Head Coach Gus Bradley was a long time defensive coordinator and has a high football IQ; yet outside of Linebackers Paul  Posluszny and Telvin Smith along with Defensive End Andre Branch, the overall Jaguars roster on the defensive side is underwhelming at best.

This season the Jaguars have seven games versus high powered offenses (Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers, Falcons, Saints and Colts twice). How will their defense hold up in those matchups?  While the Jaguars have the offensive firepower to win a few shootouts this season, they will not be able to outscore everyone.

Tennessee Titans

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Buccaneers; 10/11 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Falcons; 11/19 @ Jaguars; 12/27 vs Texans

Synopsis: The Tennessee Titans enter 2015 with another new starting Quarterback. This franchise has dealt with inconsistent play at that position for the last nine seasons.  The franchise is hoping that rookie Marcus Mariota will be able to translate his skills from the college game to the NFL.  In college Mariota won a Heisman Trophy and was known as one of the most accurate and poised QBs in all of college football.  His transition to the pro game will be the defining storyline of this season.

The Titans got no help from the NFL schedule makers as they start the season with two away games then their first four home games they play a top five Quarterback (Andrew Luck with Colts), potentially a top ten defense (Buffalo Bills) and then two high powered offenses (Dolphins and Falcons).  Historically a difficult schedule plus a rookie QB are not formula for a winning season in the NFL.

2015 NFL Preview : NFC South

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC South:

Atlanta Falcons

2015 Projected Record: 10-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/14 vs Eagles; 9/20 @ Giants; 9/27 @ Cowboys; 10/15 @ Saints; 11/22 vs Colts; 12/13 @ Panthers

Synopsis: In 2015 the Atlanta Falcons are looking for a bounce back year under new Head Coach Dan Quinn.  Before the season the Falcons made upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines but their defensive secondary is still questionable.  Also the Running Back position looks to be in flux as neither Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman have done much to set themselves apart to solidify the starter at that position.  But the team still has Matt Ryan at Quarterback, one of the best at his position in the NFL.

The Falcons have a brutal start to their regular season schedule with games against high powered offenses (Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys) and then a top ten defense (Texans).  If the Falcons can survive the tough stretches of their schedule, they should be able to make the playoffs in 2015.

Carolina Panthers

2015 Projected Record: 6-10

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Texans; 9/27 vs Saints; 11/15 @ Titans; 12/13 vs Falcons; 12/20 @ Giants

Synopsis: The Carolina Panthers have two major obstacles going into the 2015 NFL season: a depleted unit on offense and a tough schedule in which they play nine potential playoff teams.  While their defense will be solid, I question if their offense will be able to keep up when they face high powered offenses such as the Saints, Eagles, Packers, Colts, Cowboys, and Falcons. Their starting Quarterback Cam Newton is very talented but the Panthers have average talent at the Wide Receiver and Offensive Guard positions.

This team lacks the depth to overcome any more injuries, especially on the offensive line. Outside of Michael Oher and Ryan Kalil, the Panthers do not have the talent up front to consistently protect their Quarterback or open lanes for their running backs.  Also, outside of Pro Bowl Tight End Greg Olsen, Newtown has very few dynamic offensive players around him.  This season may be a setback year for the Panthers.

New Orleans Saints

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Cardinals; 10/4 vs Cowboys; 10/11 @ Eagles; 11/29 @ Texans; 12/21 vs Lions; 1/3 @ Falcons

Synopsis: The New Orleans Saints made a major move this offseason by trading away Pro Bowl Tight End Jimmy Graham to acquire Pro Bowl Center Max Unger.  Shoring up the offensive line was a big deal for the Saints with their offense functionality predicated on protecting the Quarterback. The additions to the defense will help the Saints as they navigate through the NFC on their way to the playoffs. The toughest task will be winning on the road as they play at five potential playoff teams (Eagles, Cardinals, Colts, Texans and Falcons). Home field advantage has been a big factor in past Saints’ success during the regular season and postseason, so winning on the road may make or break this team in 2015.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Titans; 9/27 @ Texans; 10/25 @ Redskins; 11/8 vs Giants; 12/6 vs Falcons

Synopsis: At first glance, the 2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster has a lot of talent on offense:  Dynamic Wide Receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans along with Pro Bowl caliber Running Back Doug Martin.  The defense roster looks like a typical Lovie Smith constructed team, with depth and talent at every position. 

Smith, the Bucs Head Coach, has two major hurdles to juggle this season. The first and foremost is his rookie starting Quarterback Jameis Winston.  Winston is the 2015 number one overall NFL Draft choice and after winning a Heisman Trophy along with a National Title in College, expectations are high.  Probably too high honestly.  Winston has talent, no one can deny that much; but what he does lack is maturity.  While in college he exhibited multiple issues on and off the field.  Winston’s development is not just important in 2015, but necessary for Smith to keep his job for the long term.

The second issue for Lovie Smith to handle in 2015 is a schedule that is littered with difficult matchups, from top 15 defenses (Rams and Texans) to high powered offenses (Eagles, Saints, Cowboys, Colts, and Giants), There will be games the Buccaneers will just be out matched in.

2015 NFL Preview: AFC North

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Broncos; 11/1 @ Steelers; 10/26 @ Cardinals; 11/22 vs Rams; 12/6 @ Dolphins; 12/13 vs Seahawks; 1/3 @ Bengals

Synopsis: 2015 will mark another season where the Baltimore Ravens will have one of the most talented defense teams in the NFL. Headlined by Linebackers Terrell Suggs, CJ Moseley, Darryl Smith, Courtney Upshaw and Elvis Dummervill, the Ravens are filled with dynamic playmakers at many positions.  The question mark is their offense where they have to replace three starters from last year’s team who were major contributors.  What also does not help is that their Pro Bowl Tight End Dennis Pitta starts the season on the Physically Unable to Perform Injury List. With a talented defense, the pressure will be on the offense to produce to alleviate pressure off the defense. 

Cincinnati Bengals

2015 Projected Record: 9-7

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Raiders; 9/27 @ Ravens; 10/11 vs Seahawks; 11/1 @ Steelers; 11/22 @ Cardinals; 11/29 vs Rams; 12/28 @ Broncos

Synopsis: The Cincinnati Bengals have been the most underachieving team in terms of lacking playoff success over the last few years.  With a very good defensive unit loaded with great players and an offense with multiple dynamic players, expectations are again high for the Bengals.  Yet the question still lingers if this team can maintain success and avoid inconsistent play.  Will Andy Dalton progress as a Quarterback and avoid costly turnovers? Can AJ Green take that next step to have his talent match his play on the field week to week? Can the defense step up in the fourth quarter and shut down opposing offenses charging downfield?

Don’t be surprised if the Bengals get tripped up and lose away matchups in Oakland and Buffalo because they underestimate their competition.  Also, playing at home versus the Chargers, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams doesn’t make their schedule any easier to overcome.  If the Bengals make the playoffs in 2015, it is because they truly earned it surviving a tough schedule.

Cleveland Browns

2015 Projected Record: 4-12

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Raiders; 10/25 @ Rams; 12/13 vs 49ers; 12/27 @ Chiefs

Synopsis: The projections for the 2015 Cleveland Browns have less to do with their roster as it does with their tough overall schedule. Outside of the fact that all three of their divisional rivals are potential playoff contenders, the Browns have to play away against three of the top 15 defenses in the NFL (Jets, Rams, and Seahawks) along with playing three of the top offenses (at Chiefs, at Chargers, and home versus Broncos).

The Browns have talent on both sides of the ball: arguably the top Offensive Tackle in the NFL (Joe Thomas), Pro Bowl Cornerback (Joe Haden), along with a talented cast of Wide Receivers (Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline, and Travis Benjamin).  They will surprise a couple of opponents and earn some upset victories as underdogs.  I just don’t know if they can do it often enough to make 2015 a winning season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/27 @ Rams; 10/18 vs Cardinals; 10/25 @ Chiefs; 11/29 @ Seahawks; 12/6 vs Colts; 12/20 vs Broncos

Synopsis: The Pittsburgh Steelers start the 2015 season without three important offensive players. Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant are both serving NFL suspensions while Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey suffered a serious injury during a pre-season game.  If the Steelers do not play well, they could start the season 2-4 which would put them behind the eight ball in their push to make it to the playoffs.  Also they have to handle a brutal second half schedule after their Bye Week with five of their final six games versus potential playoff teams and three of those matchups (the Seahawks, Bengals and Ravens) are away games. Then don’t overlook tough home matchups with the Colts and Broncos, two high powered offenses.  Without a good start to their season, the Steelers may have too much to overcome to make it to the 2015 playoffs.

2015 NFL Preview: NFC West

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC West:

Arizona Cardinals

2015 Projected Record: 10-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Saints; 10/11 @ Lions; 10/18 @ Steelers; 11/15 @ Seahawks; 12/20 @ Eagles

Synopsis: The Cardinals have one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL and they are poised to make it back to the playoffs for the second straight year.  Their defense is loaded with talent such as Cornerback Patrick Peterson, Linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Kevin Minter, along with Defensive Lineman Calais Campbell; the Cardinals will be a challenge for many offenses in 2015.  So then we turn to the offense, where the dubious question remains if starting Quarterback Carson Palmer can stay healthy for the entire season.  When Palmer went out last year, the Cardinals played three different QBs down the stretch as they made the playoffs despite underwhelming play at the Quarterback position.  If Palmer stays healthy, this team can make a playoff run.

San Francisco 49ers

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2   

Make or Break Games: 9/14 vs Vikings; 11/8 vs Falcons; 12/6 @ Bears; 12/20 vs Bengals

Synopsis: The 49ers have a depleted roster thanks to retirements and free agency.  Trying to replace two all-Pro defensive stalwarts like Patrick Willis and Justin Smith is no easy task.  The defense is a shell of the dominant force it was just a couple years ago and that will be the stumbling stone that puts the 49ers into the 2016 NFL Draft lottery.  Their offense has weapons around starting Quarterback Colin Kaepernick so they will be able to put up points this season.  Free agency acquisitions such as Wide Receiver Torrey Smith and Running Back Reggie Bush add to an offense with dependable veterans like WR Anquan Boldin and Tight End Vernon Davis.  With a brutal schedule that includes playing at Pittsburgh, Arizona, and New York early on will potentially put the 49ers in a win-loss hole they may not have the ammunition to dig themselves out from. 

Seattle Seahawks

2015 Projected Record: 12-4

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Rams; 9/20 @ Packers; 11/1 @ Cowboys; 12/13 @ Ravens; 1/3 @ Cardinals

Synopsis: The Seattle Seahawks have the opportunity to make another Super Bowl run and reach their third consecutive appearance in the big game.  In 2015 the Seahawks have two major obstacles to overcome. Their Pro Bowl Safety Kam Chancellor has been holding out for a new contract and that hold out has no end in sight.  Chancellor is one of most important players on the “Legion of Boom” defense and having to play without him puts the Seahawks in a vulnerable position.  Next, the Seahawks have to overcome a schedule in which they have to play five games on the road against potential playoff teams (Packers, Bengals, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals).

Adding Pro Bowl Tight End Jimmy Graham to their offense will help the Seahawks reach the playoffs but ultimately this team is built around their defensive success.  How long Chancellor holds out will affect where this team will finish at the end of the season.  A big key to Seattle’s playoff success is having the best home field advantage in the NFC. If they do not finished the regular season with one of the top two records in the conference, they will have to play at least one playoff game on the road.  While I am not assuming they can’t win on the road, I am saying it hurts their chances of success for sure.

St. Louis Rams

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Seahawks; 10/4 @ Cardinals; 11/8 @ Vikings; 11/22 @ Ravens; 11/29 @ Bengals; 12/13 vs Lions

Synopsis: Thanks to great coaching and personal decisions, 2015 will be another year for the Rams with a top 15 defense.  With talent such as Cornerback Janoris Jenkins, Defensive End Chris Long, and Linebacker James Laurinaitis the St. Louis Rams will be keeping many games close.  On the offensive side of the ball, they have a new starting Quarterback Nick Foles who was acquired in the offseason from the Philadelphia Eagles.  Foles joins a team with some good offensive weapons around him; it will be interesting to see how he plays for a head coach who is not an offensive guru.  Jeff Fisher comes from a defensive coaching background and has historically had his team’s offense be centered round the running game instead of high powered passing offense.  We will have to see how the backgrounds of Jeff Fisher and Nick Foles mesh in 2015.  This team has potential to make a playoff run, the question will be how they handle tough road matchups with teams such as the Cardinals, Vikings, Ravens and Bengals.

2015 NFL Preview: AFC East

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Patriots; 10/4 vs Giants; 11/12 at Jets; 11/29 @ Chiefs; 12/27 vs Cowboys

Synopsis: There’s a new culture in Buffalo under new Head Coach Rex Ryan.  Ryan brings energy and attitude lacking from recent previous head coaches.  We know that under Rex’s direction his team play good defenses and this year will be no different.  The Bills have a solid balance of young and veteran talent on the defensive side of the ball.  At worst this will be a top 12 defense in the NFL this season.

The biggest question marks revolve around the offense. Tyrod Taylor has been named the starting Quarterback for 2015 and this will be his first season in the NFL as a starting QB.  Also coming into the season there are injury concerns for All Pro Running Back LeSean McCoy with uncertainty exactly how his injury will affect his play during the season.  If the Bills offense plays up to their potential and the defense executes consistent, this is a potential playoff team.

Miami Dolphins

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+3/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/27 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Texans; 11/22 vs Cowboys; 11/29 @ Jets; 12/6 vs Ravens; 1/3 vs Patriots

Synopsis: In 2015 the Dolphins have the opportunity to take a step forward and contend for the playoffs.  The real key is the progression of whether Ryan Tannehill will make or break Miami’s season; if Tannehill will continue his development, you can expect a big season from the Dolphins.  The team has surrounded Tannehill with new weapons such as Wide Receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings along with former Pro Bowl Tight End Jordan Cameron.  

Looking at the Dolphins schedule they have the chance to start their season 6-0 thanks to several returning starters on defense.  As for any NFL team, so much is dependent on the play of their Quarterback this season and time will tell how much Tannehill has grown as a professional.

New England Patriots

2015 Projected Record: 12-4

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/20 @ Bills; 10/11 @ Cowboys; 10/18 @ Colts; 11/15 @ Giants; 11/29 @ Broncos; 12/6 vs Eagles

Synopsis: The defending Super Bowl champions have dealt with an offseason full of distractions thanks to “Deflate Gate”.  Now that saga has been put on the back burner, the team can get back to focusing on football with their starting Quarterback, Tom Brady.  They must now overcome injuries, suspensions, and players lea

ving via free agency to get back to the playoffs to defend their title.  Despite everything, this is still a talented team with a future Hall of Fame Quarterback (Tom Brady), the top Tight End in the NFL (Rob Gronkowski), one of the most dynamic Defensive Ends in the NFL (Chandler Jones), and one of the most consistent Kickers in the league (Steven Gostkowski).  A well-rounded team always has a great chance to make a playoff run and the Patriots are well-built for another Super Bowl run.

New York Jets

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Browns; 10/18 vs Redskins; 11/12 vs Bills; 12/6 @ Giants; 12/27 vs Patriots

Synopsis: Todd Bowles’ first season as Jets Head Coach does not look very promising.  Before the Bye Week the Jets have three tough games: Playing at the Colts (a perennial playoff team), home versus the Eagles (One of the top offenses in the NFL), and then go play the Dolphins in Miami (divisional rival).  Later in the year they have to play at New England, at Oakland, at Houston, and at Dallas; all tough matchups also.  

Their starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid player but he is not the type of player who has shown he can carry a team on his back.  The strength of the Jets will be their defense; the combination of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie as the starting Cornerbacks is one of the best combos in the NFL.  Also their front seven lead by dynamic Defensive Lineman Muhammed Wilkerson and rookie Leonard Williams will help keep games close for the Jets this season.  But in the end, that tough schedule may be too much for them to overcome.

5 Things Learned from UFC 191

Last night’s UFC 191 Fight Card was overlooked by many casual fans, no thanks to the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s “Go Big” press conference on Friday.  That press conference cast a shadow over an event that included one of the top fighters on the planet, a match-up of two former UFC Heavyweight Champions, and a top contender in the light heavyweight division.  So here are the top five things the Mixed Martial Arts world learned from last night:

1.  Demetrious Johnson is one of the most underrated, dominate MMA fighters on the planet.

This may appear like a hyperbole, but the casual MMA fan has not seen all of Demetrious’ fights since the 125 pound division was formed in the UFC.  Since winning the UFC Flyweight Championship in in 2012, Johnson has defended his title seven straight times while looking better and more dominant in each match-up.  Johnson has been so exceptional in the octagon that he has made very talented fighters such as Joseph Benavidez, John Dodson, and Ali Bagautinov look underwhelming.  Johnson’s footwork, high MMA IQ, speed, wrestling skills and undervalued striking all set him apart from his competition.

At 29 year old Demetrious still has time to get better and more dominant, which will be a problem for his future opponents.  The UFC has the dubious task of trying to schedule great fights moving forward thanks to most of the fighters in the weight class doing little to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.  Ronda Rousey and Demetrious Johnson both have that in common: they are both dominant in their weight classes and finding future fights for them will become more difficult.

2. “Going Big” can backfire on a fighter, just ask Frank Mir.

The Heavyweight division in MMA is the only weight class that does not have strict weigh in restrictions.  At weigh-ins the major requirement is that a fighter be under the 265 pound weight limit.  This means that the fighters could weigh anywhere between 220-265 pounds.  Frank Mir was hanging around the weight limit thanks to his plans to get big and be the new “big” heavyweight in the UFC.  Mir saw in years past that guys like Brock Lesnar and Steve Carwin had past success as men who had to cut down to 265 pounds in order to compete. 

The problem with this way of thinking is two-fold:

-First of all, Mir has worked to gain weight and become a bigger man.  Lesnar and Carwin have been that size and weight most of their adult lives with most of that weight being muscle.  Mir had a gut last night and physiologically looked sloppy, his footwork was awkward and lacked the speed he has had in the past.  In previous fights Mir had come into the fights weighing between 10-18 pounds less and looked better.

-Secondly a natural side effect of competing at a weight heavier than what an athlete is use to is the potential to be tired more quickly.  Last night Frank Mir was tired early in the fight and it showed as his opponent, Andre Arlovski, was able to stay nimble and energetic.  Carrying that extra weight hindered Mir’s ability to execute his game plan and as a result the fight was underwhelming to watch.

There were expectations for this fight of two former Heavyweight champions, both looking to make another run at the belt.  Instead it was a fight in which one fighter looked like he didn’t belong; Mir looked slow, tired, and lacking initiative.  If Frank Mir has a future in MMA he needs to get back to the aggressive, balanced fighter he was four years ago.  Since his loss to Junior Dos Santos in 2012, Frank has lost four of his last six fights; in those losses he has looked slow and indecisive.

3. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson deserves his number one contender ranking.

Anthony Johnson with his Knockout victory last night showed why he deserves that number one contender spot in the Light Heavyweight rankings.  Johnson’s last fight was a loss to UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier, a fight that he did not perform his best in.  Outside of that loss, Anthony has not lost any fights since January 2012.  His showing at last night’s match-up with Jimi Manuwa was another example of Anthony at his best: staying aggressive, good side to side movement, and was calculated.

With excellent striking power and a good wrestling background, Anthony Johnson has the tools to be a UFC champion.  The weakness of Anthony’s game has been simple over the years and that is his susceptibility to being submitted.  The reality is that four of his five career losses have been by submission.  “Rumble” Johnson has the physical skills to be a champion and after last night he is clearly next in line for another shot at the belt.

4. Corey Anderson is an example of why who you train with is so important.

In his win last night, Corey Anderson showed well rounded striking and grappling skills.  A collegiate wrestler, Corey never aspired to be a Mixed Martial Arts fighter.  But after meeting former longtime Bellator Welterweight Champion Ben Askrin, Corey Anderson was convinced to come out to Ben’s MMA gym.  After a few pro fights, he got the opportunity to compete on season 19 of The Ultimate Fighter.  The show known as “TUF” is the UFC’s reality TV development/talent evaluation proving ground.  Corey would go on to be the Season 19 TUF Winner; the winner of the Ultimate Fighter wins a guaranteed UFC contract.  As part of that contract, he is required to fight on at least one Pay-Per View fight card; this is a big deal because fighters who compete on PPV cards get paid more since they also earn shares of PPV sale.

Corey Anderson has grown from a raw, athletic wrestler to an up and coming all-around MMA fighter.  This happened because he moved to New Jersey to be coached by Mark Henry and Richardo Almeida after working with former UFC Lightweight champion Franke Edgar on TUF.  Henry is a boxing coach with a high fight game IQ and Almeida is a high level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner and coach.  Working with great coaches and training in the same facility with top level fighters such as Franke Edgar, Edson Barboza, and Marlon Morales, this type of an environment helps athletes grow and develop their skills.  Anderson has gone from a wrestler with no interest in Mixed Martial Arts to an up and coming MMA fighter who has a bright future in the UFC.  Amazing what happens when an athlete is in the right kind of environment.

5. The sky is the limit for Paige Vanzant.

At 21 years of age, Paige Vanzant is rising up the Women’s MMA ranks and getting attention from advertisers too.  Now one of the faces of Reebok’s MMA promotional campaign, Paige has rewarded the faith placed in her by going 3-0 during her time in the UFC.  Vanzant, who trains at Team Alpha Male, has shown the progression of getting better with each fight and last night she won by submission, utilizing excellent jiu-jitsu skills.

Her all-around MMA skills have been developing at a solid pace and it has been smart for the UFC to bring her along slowly.  Paige Vanzant has the potential to be a UFC champion and also the future face of Women’s MMA.  Ronda Rousey has said publicly she doesn’t want to keep fighting into her 30’s and with a budding acting career, she doesn’t have to.  Paige has everything the UFC needs to build her into the next Women’s MMA star: she’s attractive, good with the media, talented, and fans like her.  Now yes, some fans may like her because of her looks, but her growing set of skills cannot be ignored by any objective viewer of her fights. 

Paige’s only potential downfall will be how she handles adversity in the future.  If she can handle losses inside and outside the Octagon the way she has handled everything else fame has thrown at her, her potential as a fighter is limitless.

2015 College Football Preview: Big 12 Conference

The 2015 College Football Season begins this week and this will be the second year of the College Football Four-Team Playoff format.  This week I will be giving my preview of the major teams and players to watch for in 2015.  One of the elements that makes the College game so exciting is the unpredictability. There’s no preseason, always new players coming in as freshman, and past players leaving via graduation or early exit for the NFL.  Also, I enjoy watching College Football for the many different styles of offenses and defenses run on the field each week.  Unlike the NFL in which only a few different schemes are utilized each week, the College ranks over the last few decades have seen so many variants of styles and we the viewers have seen some of the greatest players succeed with these unique game plans.

Today I will highlight teams to watch from the Big 12 Football Conference:

University of Texas

2015 Projected Record: 6-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-0

Make or Break Games: 9/5 @ Notre Dame, 9/19 vs Cal; 10/3 @ TCU; 10/10 vs Oklahoma; 11/14 @ West Virginia; 12/5 @ Baylor

Synopsis: Entering his second season at Texas, Head Coach Charlie Strong has to lead his team through one of the toughest schedules in the nation.  If playing Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana wasn’t enough, Texas gets to host one of the top offenses in the nation in California a couple weeks later.  Then that brutal inter-conference schedule: Having to travel to play at TCU, at West Virginia, and at Baylor.  What Texas has going for them is a young, but very talented defensive unit headlined by freshman Malik Jefferson who is a special player at Linebacker.  I am unsure if Texas has the offensive firepower to keep up with their competition, especially if the games turn into shootouts.  Time will tell if starting Quarterback Tyronne Swoopes is up for the challenge.

University of Oklahoma

2015 Projected Record: 8-4

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/12 @ Tennessee; 10/10 vs Texas; 10/24 vs Texas Tech; 11/14 @ Baylor; 11/21 vs TCU; 11/28 @ Oklahoma State

Synopsis: Oklahoma has a name that demands respect in the college football world for years, but this year they may have too much to overcome.  We know the offense will be talented with Baker Mayfield at Quarterback and Freshman Running Back Joe Mixon.  But the defense is still young and lacks depth at certain positions, leaving Oklahoma susceptible when facing high powered offenses like Baylor, TCU, and don’t discount that Texas Tech game.  Mayfield, who transferred to Oklahoma from Texas Tech, will have the luxury of facing his old school on the Oklahoma home field.  But don’t assume that equals a win that day because Mayfield was recruited by Texas Tech and his old coaches may make him look bad.

Texas Tech University

2015 Projected Record: 8-4

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/19 @ Arkansas; 9/26 vs TCU; 10/3 vs Baylor; 11/24 @ Oklahoma; 11/7 @ West Virginia; 11/26 @ Texas

Synopsis: While Texas Tech is still rebuilding through recruiting missteps after the saga that ended the Mike Leech era in Lubbock, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury has many talented pieces to work with on both sides of the ball.  While not announcing who the starting Quarterback will be, both Davis Webb and Patrick Mahomes showed last season they can run this high powered offense.  While their defense is still suspect in terms of depth, they are getting better.  This season’s team will give inter-conference opponents trouble because it’s another full season for players in Kingsbury offensive system.  Senior Wide Receiver Jakeem Grant is poised for a breakout season while Texas Tech is setting up to walk away with some up upset victories in 2015.

Baylor University

2015 Projected Record: 10-2

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 10/3 vs Texas Tech; 11/5 @ Kansas State; 11/21 @ Oklahoma State; 11/27 @ TCU

Synopsis: In Baylor’s 56-21 win last night over SMU we got to see what makes this team so good: talented starting Quarterback in Seth Russell with dynamic wide receivers and an underrated running game opening up the offense for the Baylor Bears.  But we also saw the underwhelming defense that is Baylor’s weakness coming into the 2015 season.  No offense to SMU, but this game was closer than it should have been early on.  It is obvious that this team will have another season averaging around 40 points scored per game, but can their defense slow down high powered offenses such as Texas Tech and TCU?  I do not expect Baylor to be winning the Big 12 championship when three of Baylor’s final five games this season are on the road against tough inter-conference opponents.

University of West Virginia

2015 Projected Record: 9-3

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 10/3 @ Oklahoma; 10/17 @ Baylor; 10/29 @ TCU; 12/5 @ Kansas State

Synopsis:  Never did I ever expect the day to come I would to say or write the following: West Virginia may have the best defense in the Big 12 Conference.  The West Virginia Mountaineers have for years before known for their offensive skill players, only sending one major defensive NFL prospect to the profession ranks in the last several years.  But with eight returning starters on defense, a unit that includes Safety Karl Joseph, Linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, and Cornerback Daryl Worley, West Virginia has a chance to be the foil of the Big 12 power teams in 2015.  Also don’t forget about the two headed running attack lead by Running Backs. Rushel Shell and Wendell Smallwood have the chance to frustrate many opponents who lack the linebacker depth to compensate.  The biggest question in Morgantown is if Junior Quarterback Skyler Howard is ready to be the starting Quarterback for a full season after spot duty last season?

Texas Christian University

2015 Projected Record: 11-1

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/26 @ Texas Tech; 10/29 vs West Virginia; 11/21 @ Oklahoma; 11/27 vs Baylor

Synopsis: Entering the 2015 College Football season as the number two ranked team in the country, TCU has come a long way under Head Coach Gary Patterson.  Several years ago TCU was playing in a mid-level conference causing National upsets with great defense and an underrated offense.  This year the script has flipped with a high powered offense led by starting Quarterback Trevone Boykin, who is considered an early front runner for the Heisman Trophy.  The defense is not at the caliber of past TCU teams and that is what may be the tripping point for Gary Patterson’s team who is on a mission to be the Big 12 Conference champions and get into this year’s College Football Final Four Playoff.  Matchups with high powered offenses like Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Baylor will be major tests of TCU’s defensive depth and efficiency.