Showing posts with label NFC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFC. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Diagnosis and Solution for Nine NFL teams 0-2 after Week Two

After Week Two of the 2015 NFL season there are nine teams off to a 0-2 start. Many of these teams had pre-season expectations to make the playoffs. So what went wrong between August 1st and September 22nd? Reality hit that being “good on paper” does not equal success on the football field.

So I am going to look at each of these 0-2 teams like a doctor: analyze the symptoms, diagnose the problem, and give a solution/prescription to turn things around.  So let’s get started:


Baltimore Ravens
Symptoms: The Ravens have been playing inconsistent each of the first two weeks.  In week one they limit the Broncos offense and future Hall of Fame Quarterback Peyton Manning to under 20 points then the next week the defense allows 37 points from a Raiders team full of young players. As a team they rank in the lower half of the league in almost every offensive statistical category.

Diagnosis: Injuries at key positions are hurting the Ravens. All-Pro Linebacker Terrell Suggs is out for the season, Pro Bowl Tight End Dennis Pitta is on the Physically Unable to Perform list, starting Offensive Tackle Eugene Monroe is out with a concussion, and rookie Wide Receiver Breshard Perriman is recovering from a knee injury. As a result, the team has been playing guys at these positions who are not at the same level of skill as the injured starters.

Solution: The Ravens do not have a plethora of high skilled players starting at every position. They cannot get away with being the most talented team on the field each week. This team needs to get back to what has served them well in the past, which is being physical on both sides of the ball. If they can physically impose their will on opponents they can win ball games. Neither of their first two losses were blowouts, both games came down to final possessions, so they must execute better in crunch time.
But having to “turn on a switch” and play a certain way at the end of games is a lot harder when the team hasn’t been playing well throughout the game. Starting in the 1st quarter of each game the team needs to impose their will and game plan on their opponents then carry that momentum throughout the rest of the game.


Houston Texans
Symptoms: On paper the Houston Texans are one of the most talented defenses in the NFL. Yet they have allowed their first two opponents this season to score 24 points and 27 points in consecutive weeks. This is facing offenses with limited offensive skill players so it would be assumed that a team as talented as the Texans should be able to slow opponents down. Also, Texans have started two different Quarterbacks in both of their games this season.

Diagnosis: The problem is execution. There is no reason why a defense like this should allow a talented Tight End such as Travis Kelce to be so wide open and be able to score two receiving touchdowns. There is no reason why Panthers Quarterback Cam Newton should not be under pressure when he is the most dangerous player on the opposing offense. Also, after the first two weeks the Texans passing offense is top 12 in the NFL in passing yards per game and has 28 first downs on passing plays. Yet they are only averaging 18.5 points per game and their 3rd down conversion rate is a lowly 24 percent.

Solution: The defense needs to stop leaning on All-Pro Defensive lineman JJ Watt. Yes, he is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, but one man cannot do everything. Football is a team game and the other players on the Texans defense need to step up and handle their assignments on every play. On offense, this team needs to balance their attack. They are running double the passing plays versus running plays; they need to be more committed to the running game and not leave so much pressure on the passing attack to convert on 3rd downs to keep drives going.


Indianapolis Colts
Symptoms: The Colts have been outscored on the season 47-21 versus teams who when you combine their rosters only have two players on offense who have been Pro Bowl selections. Neither Quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor nor Ryan Fitzpatrick are overly difficult to game plan against. Also the Colts offense is bottom in the NFL ranks in turnovers in 2015.

Diagnosis: The Colts offensive and defensive lines have played poorly in their first two games. Neither side of the ball is gaining leverage against the opposition and these guys are being pushed around almost every play. I do not care how great Quarterback Andrew Luck is, or how talented his receivers are. If the offensive line does not hold their blocking assignments, this offense will keep looking putrid. On the flip side, the defensive front is not getting consistent pressure on the opposing offense, leaving the back end of the defense to be taken advantage of from down to down. Opposing offenses are averaging 343 total yards of offense versus Colts in 2015.

Solution: The offensive and defensive lineman need to do their jobs better or this team will continue to flounder. The men in the trenches are the foundation of success for any winning franchise. It doesn’t matter how talented the Quarterback and Wide Receivers are on paper. Poor execution leads to opponents having the upper hand and then the team starts pressing because they are behind on the score board. The Colts need to get back to the fundamentals of football. They signed Running Back Frank Gore for a reason and I am sure it wasn’t to just block for Andrew Luck.  They need to stop being afraid to attack on defense, especially when you have guys like Trent Cole and Robert Mathis on the roster. The Colts have to impose their game plan on opponents in order to win games. This finesse style of game play the last two weeks certainly isn’t working.


New York Giants
Symptoms: For two straight weeks the Giants have held the lead in games in the 4th quarter, mismanaged their offense, then allowed opponents to get the ball back on offense at end of the game and score touchdowns. The Giants are outscoring teams 37-23 through first 3 quarters; in the 4th quarter opponents are outscoring the Giants 28-10!

Diagnosis: The Giants are not finishing games with the right attitude. Instead of playing the way they did the first 3 quarters all the way until the end, in the 4th quarter, they are playing overly conservative in effort to “maintain the lead” and “not make mistakes”.  A problem in sports is whenever a team or player is worried about making a mistake, those problems manifest themselves during the game and then the worry becomes the nightmare facing them.

Solution: The Giants need to stop letting up on the gas pedal when entering the 4th quarter. They need to be in attack mode all game long, not just 75 percent of the game.  They need to treat the scoreboard like no lead is safe and they have to keep attacking opponents on offense while allowing their defense to continue being aggressive until the final seconds go off the clock. They can lay back when the game is over, not in the fourth quarter.


Philadelphia Eagles
Symptoms: The Eagles offense is averaging only 17 points per game and statistically have the worst rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 35 rushing yards per game.  Meanwhile opponents are averaging 377 total yards per game and the Eagles defense pressure on the opposing Quarterback is so bad they have only one sack in 2015.

Diagnosis: The Eagles are not just playing poorly, but are misusing players on both sides of the ball. Running Back Demarco Murray is a “North-South” power runner who is great running between the tackles. The Eagles keep trying to run him on stretch plays and hand offs out of shotgun. Byron Maxwell did his best work as a Cornerback in Seattle playing a specific side of the field, not matched up on the opponent’s top receiver all game long. While Wide Receiver Jordan Matthews does his best work on slants and deep comeback pattern passing plays, the Eagles keep running him on deep outs and crossing pick passing plays. Linebacker Connor Barwin is great at blitzing the Quarterback on 3rd down and stopping running plays and screen plays as a power player. Eagles keep sending him into coverage on multiple downs.

Solution: The Eagles coaches need to utilize their players based on their skill sets instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. If Chip Kelly is as great a football mind as people claim, he will know how to customize his game plans based around his player’s strengths instead of asking them to run plays they are outside of their comfort zones. Allow the talent on this roster to do what they are best at, then you will have a chance to win ball games.


Detroit Lions
Symptoms: The Lions are in the bottom half of the league in points per game, rush yards per game, total yards per game and 3rd down conversation percentage. Their offense has been inconsistent despite all the talent they have on the roster.  Also, opponents are averaging 29.5 points per game versus the Lions.

Diagnosis: The Lions have built their team around the Pro Bowl Quarterback Matthew Stafford with talented players such as Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, and Amir Abdullah. But the offensive play calling has been unbalanced. The running game has been so rough that the team’s second leading rusher so far this season is their Quarterback Stafford. Which highlights the other issue. The offensive line is not getting enough leverage at the snap of the ball, allowing opposing defenses to dictate pace and limiting the offense’s ability to execute efficiently.

Solution: The Lions must do a better job at putting the Quarterback in a position to be successful or they will continue to lose games. This team’s defense is built to play when their offense is ahead so they can attack the opponent’s offense. They are not built to play from behind so they need to not start slow as they have the last two weeks. They need to get leads early and execute on offense, giving them a chance to finish the game strong instead of fighting from behind and hope for the best.


Chicago Bears
Symptoms: The Bears offense is not the problem as they average 23 points per game and statistically one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL. The problem is their defense, as their opponents have score 11 touchdowns in just the first two weeks of this season. The defense has registered zero sacks and their only interception is by one of their pass rushers, Jared Allen.

Diagnosis: Ever since the team fired former Head Coach Lovie Smith a few years ago, the defense has played below average despite the personnel on their roster. When your defense is unable to stop opponents then the offense is put in the dubious position of having to play catch up. Being without starting Quarterback Jay Cutler for a few weeks will further inhibit the team’s ability to keep up in games their defense can’t slow down opponents.

Solution: Talented veterans such as Jared Allen, Antrel Rolle, Lamarr Houston, and Shea McClellin need to take command of the situation and lead this team to play better.  These guys know what it takes to be successful in the NFL and without them this team will finish dead last in the division. The Bears do not have the offensive firepower to win only with their offense. The defense must step up, play up to their potential, and keep opponents from averaging 39.5 point per game against them. They need to shave at least 10 points off that average to allow their offense to have a chance to win games for them.


New Orleans Saints
Symptoms: Despite having a future Hall of Famer at Quarterback in Drew Brees, the Saints are averaging 19 points per game and their offensive line has allowed their Quarterback to be sacked six times. Meanwhile, despite having “defensive guru” Rob Ryan as Defensive Coordinator, the Saints are allowing opponents an average of 380 total yards per game.

Diagnosis: The Saints offensive and defensive lines are under performing in 2015.  Despite the big trade to bring in Pro Bowl Center Max Unger in the offseason, the line has been unable to keep defenders off their Quarterback consistently. Also the line is not gaining the leverage needed at the snap to allow any consistency play from the running game. On the flip side, the defense is getting almost no pressure on opposing Quarterbacks and the secondary is playing sloppy in coverage.

Solution: The Saints need to pick up their overall play in the trenches. They cannot expect to win games if they are getting manhandled after the snap of the football on each play. Drew Brees reportedly has a bruised rotator cuff, thanks to his offensive line doing a poor job of protecting him. The defense needs to get more pressure on opposing Quarterbacks in order to make life more difficult for offenses they face. The coaches Sean Payton and Rob Ryan need to see what they can do to shake up their game plan schemes so they appear less predictable week to week.


Seattle Seahawks
Symptoms: The Seahawks are allowing 30.5 points per game to be scored on them, the highest number in the last 5 seasons. They have only gotten sacks on opposing Quarterbacks 4 times and registered zero interceptions. Meanwhile Seattle has allowed their own starting Quarterback Russell Wilson to be sacked by opponents eight times and their offense is in the bottom half of the league statistically in categories such as total yards per game, passing yards, and total points scored.

Diagnosis: This is not a team right now. Too many players are going onto the field not for the team but playing for themselves and to impress to get contracts. Safety Kam Chancellor has been sitting out, refusing to play, because he wants a pay raise after getting a new contract two years ago. This type of attitude is seemingly permeating the rest of the roster as too many guys on both sides of the ball are playing as individuals instead of executing as a unit. With players such as Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and Cliff Avrill, there is no reason why they should be allowing opponents to score as many points per game.


Solution: Protect your Quarterback and get to the other team’s Quarterback. Seattle Seahawks, the solution is simple.  Stop worrying about the next contact or what the guy next to you is doing or when Kam Chancellor is coming back. Step up, do your job, support your current teammates. Don’t worry about who is no longer on the team because they went elsewhere and got paid. Also, you acquired one of the top offensive weapons in the NFL, Tight End Jimmy Graham. Get him more involved in the offense.  Graham led the Saints in targets on passing plays three of the last four seasons in New Orleans and despite the fact everyone knew the Saints were throwing it to him, he still put up huge statistics every year. There is no reason why he can’t do the same in Seattle.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

2015 NFL preview: NFC North

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.


Here is my preview of the NFC North:

Chicago Bears
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Packers; 11/1 vs Vikings; 11/22 vs Bronocs; 12/6 vs 49ers; 12/27 @ Buccaneers

Synopsis: Interesting changes have come to the Chicago Bears this offseason with the hiring of new Head Coach John Fox and departure of Pro Bowl Wide Receiver Brandon Marshall.  Fox will be overseeing a team that has talent but some major weak points. The defense is led by a strong group of linebackers with Jared Allen, Jonathan Bostic, and Lamarr Houston. The question is the strength and depth of their defensive line.  The defensive line is very important in a 3-4 defense because those lineman are responsible for engaging the offensive lineman in order for the Linebackers to run free in pursuit of the ball carrier and collapse the pocket around the opposing Quarterback.

The Bears offense does features a Pro Bowl Running Back in Matt Forte along with dynamic Wide Receiver Alson Jeffry. Despite the talented weapons on offense, starting Quarterback Jay Cutler is still an enigma; great physical skills but not the best decision maker. Whether the Bears make the playoffs or not rests solely on whether the offense can avoid making costly mistakes and if the defense can play up to their talent.  


Detroit Lions
2015 Projected Record: 9-7
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Chargers; 9/20 @ Vikings; 9/27 vs Broncos; 10/11 vs Cardinals; 11/1 @ Chiefs; 11/26 vs Eagles; 1/3 @ Bears

Synopsis: There is no question the Detroit Lions have a talented roster heading into the 2015 season.  A high powered offense headlined by Pro Bowl Quarterback Matthew Stafford and All-Pro Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson are complimented by solid, well-constructed defense that includes Linebacker DeAndre Levy and Defensive End Ezekiel Ansah.

The Lions, though, will have to navigate a difficult schedule if they are to get into the playoffs.  Three of their first three games of the season are difficult matchups away from home (Chargers, Vikings and Seahawks).  Furthermore the schedule they have in December is brutal with divisional rival game versus the Packers followed by two weeks of difficult matchups at St. Louis and at New Orleans.  This team has the talent to be a playoff contender, but their schedule will not make it easy on them.


Green Bay Packers
2015 Projected Record: 11-5
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Bears; 9/20 vs Seahawks; 10/18 vs Chargers; 11/1 @ Broncos; 12/3 @ Lions

Synopsis: The Green Bay Packers have starting at Quarterback arguably the best player at his position: Aaron Rodgers. I know the Packers will be without their top Wide Receiver Jordy Nelson for the season but this offense is still high octane. Wide Receivers Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are both dynamic playmakers who are complimented by the power running game of Running Back Eddie Lacy. The key will be defensive performance by an underrated unit led by Defensive Lineman BJ Raji and Linebacker Clay Matthews. If the Packers defense can hold up against high powered opponents such as Chargers, Broncos, Lions, and Cowboys than this team can set themselves up for a run at the Super Bowl


Minnesota Vikings
2015 Projected Record: 9-7
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Lions; 9/27 vs Chargers; 11/8 vs Rams; 12/6 vs Seahawks; 1/3 @ Packers

Synopsis: The Minnesota Vikings enter 2015 with a rested and ready to go Adrian Peterson at Running Back. Peterson is considered the best Running Back in the NFL and will be a great compliment for second year starting Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  The Vikings have constructed a solid roster on the offensive side to support Bridgewater and I expect the young Quarterback to exceed many expectations this season.

Meanwhile the Vikings defense is an underrated unit that is a solid mix of talented veterans and dynamic young athletes.  This team will be challenged throughout the 2015 season as they will be matching up with six teams boasting high scoring offenses (Lions, Chargers, Broncos, Packers, Falcons, and Giants).  The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint; if the Vikings can be consistent throughout the year they have a chance at making the playoffs. 


Wednesday, September 9, 2015

2015 NFL Preview : NFC South

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.


Here is my preview of the NFC South:

Atlanta Falcons
2015 Projected Record: 10-6
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/14 vs Eagles; 9/20 @ Giants; 9/27 @ Cowboys; 10/15 @ Saints; 11/22 vs Colts; 12/13 @ Panthers

Synopsis: In 2015 the Atlanta Falcons are looking for a bounce back year under new Head Coach Dan Quinn.  Before the season the Falcons made upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines but their defensive secondary is still questionable.  Also the Running Back position looks to be in flux as neither Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman have done much to set themselves apart to solidify the starter at that position.  But the team still has Matt Ryan at Quarterback, one of the best at his position in the NFL.

The Falcons have a brutal start to their regular season schedule with games against high powered offenses (Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys) and then a top ten defense (Texans).  If the Falcons can survive the tough stretches of their schedule, they should be able to make the playoffs in 2015.


Carolina Panthers
2015 Projected Record: 6-10
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Texans; 9/27 vs Saints; 11/15 @ Titans; 12/13 vs Falcons; 12/20 @ Giants

Synopsis: The Carolina Panthers have two major obstacles going into the 2015 NFL season: a depleted unit on offense and a tough schedule in which they play nine potential playoff teams.  While their defense will be solid, I question if their offense will be able to keep up when they face high powered offenses such as the Saints, Eagles, Packers, Colts, Cowboys, and Falcons. Their starting Quarterback Cam Newton is very talented but the Panthers have average talent at the Wide Receiver and Offensive Guard positions.

This team lacks the depth to overcome any more injuries, especially on the offensive line. Outside of Michael Oher and Ryan Kalil, the Panthers do not have the talent up front to consistently protect their Quarterback or open lanes for their running backs.  Also, outside of Pro Bowl Tight End Greg Olsen, Newtown has very few dynamic offensive players around him.  This season may be a setback year for the Panthers.


New Orleans Saints
2015 Projected Record: 11-5
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Cardinals; 10/4 vs Cowboys; 10/11 @ Eagles; 11/29 @ Texans; 12/21 vs Lions; 1/3 @ Falcons

Synopsis: The New Orleans Saints made a major move this offseason by trading away Pro Bowl Tight End Jimmy Graham to acquire Pro Bowl Center Max Unger.  Shoring up the offensive line was a big deal for the Saints with their offense functionality predicated on protecting the Quarterback. The additions to the defense will help the Saints as they navigate through the NFC on their way to the playoffs. The toughest task will be winning on the road as they play at five potential playoff teams (Eagles, Cardinals, Colts, Texans and Falcons). Home field advantage has been a big factor in past Saints’ success during the regular season and postseason, so winning on the road may make or break this team in 2015.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2015 Projected Record: 5-11
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1
Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Titans; 9/27 @ Texans; 10/25 @ Redskins; 11/8 vs Giants; 12/6 vs Falcons

Synopsis: At first glance, the 2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster has a lot of talent on offense:  Dynamic Wide Receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans along with Pro Bowl caliber Running Back Doug Martin.  The defense roster looks like a typical Lovie Smith constructed team, with depth and talent at every position. 
Smith, the Bucs Head Coach, has two major hurdles to juggle this season. The first and foremost is his rookie starting Quarterback Jameis Winston.  Winston is the 2015 number one overall NFL Draft choice and after winning a Heisman Trophy along with a National Title in College, expectations are high.  Probably too high honestly.  Winston has talent, no one can deny that much; but what he does lack is maturity.  While in college he exhibited multiple issues on and off the field.  Winston’s development is not just important in 2015, but necessary for Smith to keep his job for the long term.


The second issue for Lovie Smith to handle in 2015 is a schedule that is littered with difficult matchups, from top 15 defenses (Rams and Texans) to high powered offenses (Eagles, Saints, Cowboys, Colts, and Giants), There will be games the Buccaneers will just be out matched in.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: NFC West

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.


Here is my preview of the NFC West:

Arizona Cardinals
2015 Projected Record: 10-6
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Saints; 10/11 @ Lions; 10/18 @ Steelers; 11/15 @ Seahawks; 12/20 @ Eagles

Synopsis: The Cardinals have one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL and they are poised to make it back to the playoffs for the second straight year.  Their defense is loaded with talent such as Cornerback Patrick Peterson, Linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Kevin Minter, along with Defensive Lineman Calais Campbell; the Cardinals will be a challenge for many offenses in 2015.  So then we turn to the offense, where the dubious question remains if starting Quarterback Carson Palmer can stay healthy for the entire season.  When Palmer went out last year, the Cardinals played three different QBs down the stretch as they made the playoffs despite underwhelming play at the Quarterback position.  If Palmer stays healthy, this team can make a playoff run.


San Francisco 49ers
2015 Projected Record: 5-11
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2   
Make or Break Games: 9/14 vs Vikings; 11/8 vs Falcons; 12/6 @ Bears; 12/20 vs Bengals

Synopsis: The 49ers have a depleted roster thanks to retirements and free agency.  Trying to replace two all-Pro defensive stalwarts like Patrick Willis and Justin Smith is no easy task.  The defense is a shell of the dominant force it was just a couple years ago and that will be the stumbling stone that puts the 49ers into the 2016 NFL Draft lottery.  Their offense has weapons around starting Quarterback Colin Kaepernick so they will be able to put up points this season.  Free agency acquisitions such as Wide Receiver Torrey Smith and Running Back Reggie Bush add to an offense with dependable veterans like WR Anquan Boldin and Tight End Vernon Davis.  With a brutal schedule that includes playing at Pittsburgh, Arizona, and New York early on will potentially put the 49ers in a win-loss hole they may not have the ammunition to dig themselves out from. 


Seattle Seahawks
2015 Projected Record: 12-4
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3
Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Rams; 9/20 @ Packers; 11/1 @ Cowboys; 12/13 @ Ravens; 1/3 @ Cardinals

Synopsis: The Seattle Seahawks have the opportunity to make another Super Bowl run and reach their third consecutive appearance in the big game.  In 2015 the Seahawks have two major obstacles to overcome. Their Pro Bowl Safety Kam Chancellor has been holding out for a new contract and that hold out has no end in sight.  Chancellor is one of most important players on the “Legion of Boom” defense and having to play without him puts the Seahawks in a vulnerable position.  Next, the Seahawks have to overcome a schedule in which they have to play five games on the road against potential playoff teams (Packers, Bengals, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals).

Adding Pro Bowl Tight End Jimmy Graham to their offense will help the Seahawks reach the playoffs but ultimately this team is built around their defensive success.  How long Chancellor holds out will affect where this team will finish at the end of the season.  A big key to Seattle’s playoff success is having the best home field advantage in the NFC. If they do not finished the regular season with one of the top two records in the conference, they will have to play at least one playoff game on the road.  While I am not assuming they can’t win on the road, I am saying it hurts their chances of success for sure.


St. Louis Rams
2015 Projected Record: 8-8
Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2
Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Seahawks; 10/4 @ Cardinals; 11/8 @ Vikings; 11/22 @ Ravens; 11/29 @ Bengals; 12/13 vs Lions


Synopsis: Thanks to great coaching and personal decisions, 2015 will be another year for the Rams with a top 15 defense.  With talent such as Cornerback Janoris Jenkins, Defensive End Chris Long, and Linebacker James Laurinaitis the St. Louis Rams will be keeping many games close.  On the offensive side of the ball, they have a new starting Quarterback Nick Foles who was acquired in the offseason from the Philadelphia Eagles.  Foles joins a team with some good offensive weapons around him; it will be interesting to see how he plays for a head coach who is not an offensive guru.  Jeff Fisher comes from a defensive coaching background and has historically had his team’s offense be centered round the running game instead of high powered passing offense.  We will have to see how the backgrounds of Jeff Fisher and Nick Foles mesh in 2015.  This team has potential to make a playoff run, the question will be how they handle tough road matchups with teams such as the Cardinals, Vikings, Ravens and Bengals.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: NFC Review

Here is part 2 of my overview of the 2012 NFL draft.  Below is my analysis of the NFC teams:

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Good Picks: Morris Claiborne (CB – 1st rd), Danny Coale (WR – 5th), James Hanna (TE – 6th), Caleb McSurdy (LB – 7th)
Questionable Picks: Tyrone Crawford (DE – 3rd rd), Kyle Wilber (LB – 4th), Matt Johnson (S – 4th)
Grade: B
Review: The Cowboys made a great move during the first round to move up and select the super talented Claiborne.  They made good use of their late round picks to get more talented depth at wide receiver (Coale) and Tight End (Hanna) while adding more linebackers for defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to add into his gameplans.
 

New York Giants
Good Picks: Ruben Randle (WR – 2nd), Adrien Robinson (TE – 4th), Brandon Mosley (OT – 4th), Markus Kuhn (DT – 7th)
Questionable Picks: David Wilson (RB – 1st), Jayron Hosley (CB – 3rd), Matt McCants (OL – 6th)
Grade: C+
Review: The main reason for my draft grade is the Giants selection of David Wilson with their first round pick.  Wilson is very similar to Giants current starting Running Back Ahmad Bradshaw which does not address the Giants need for a sturdy, dependable backup for Bradshaw.  The selection of Ruben Randle is a great move after the departure of Manningham.  The Giants seemed to miss out on getting better players who were available in the draft, they just filled roster depth.


Philadelphia Eagles
Good Picks: Fletcher Cox (DT – 1st), Mychal Kendricks (LB – 2nd), Marvin McNutt (WR – 6th), Bryce Brown (RB – 7th)
Questionable Picks: Vinny Curry (DE – 2nd), Nick Foles (QB – 3rd), Brandon Boykin (CB – 4th), Dennis Kelly (OL – 5th), Brandon Washington (OL – 6th)
Grade: B-
Review: The Eagles got two, NFL ready players with their first two picks who can immediately help their defense (Cox and Kendricks).  But then they use their next four draft picks on player who underachieved at the collegiate level.  The selection of McNutt and Brown in the late rounds are solid additions to the Eagles offense but does not make up for their questionable picks during the middle rounds of the draft.


Washington Redskins
Good Picks: Robert Griffin III (QB – 1st), Kirk Cousins (QB – 4th), Keenan Robinson (OLB – 4th), Adam Gettis (OG – 5th),
Questionable Picks: Josh LeRibeus (OL – 3rd), Alfred Morris (RB – 6th), Tom Compton (OL – 6th), Richard Crawford (CB – 7th), Jordan Bernstine (CB – 7th)
Grade: B-
Review: The Redskins got their franchise Quarterback in the Heisman Trophy winner RG3 but they did little to surround him with more talent on offense.  Gettis was a good Guard at Iowa and Cousins is a good selection as a backup quarterback but they overreached in efforts to sure up the offensive line.


NFC North

Chicago Bears
Good Picks: Shea McClellin (LB – 1st), Alshon Jeffery (WR – 2nd), Brandon Hardin (S – 3rd), Greg McCoy (CB – 7th)
Questionable Picks: Evan Rodriguez (TE – 4th), Isaiah Frey (CB – 6th)
Grade: B+
Review: The Bears addressed major needs through the draft on defense to add good depth by selecting McClellin (Linebacker) and Hardin (Safety) while selecting one of the most underrated wide receivers in the draft (Jeffery).  They also got good value by drafting a smart, talented cornerback in the seventh round (McCoy).


Detroit Lions
Good Picks: Riley Reiff (OT -1st), Ryan Broyles (WR – 2nd), Ronnell Lewis (LB – 4th), Travis Lewis (LB – 7th)
Questionable Picks: Dwight Bentley (CB – 3rd), Tahir Whitehead (LB – 5th), Chris Greenwood (CB – 5th), Jonte Green (CB – 6th)
Grade: B
Review: The Lions did more than draft the best all around Offensive tackle in this years draft class (Reiff) but they also got deeper and more talented at linebacker by adding the Lewis’s from Oklahoma.  Broyles was one of the top wide receivers in college football before his season ending injury last season so he may turn out to be a pleasant surprise partner to team up with the superstar Calvin Johnson at wide out.
 

Green Bay Packers
Good Picks: Nick Perry (DE – 1st), Jerel Worthy (DT – 2nd), Casey Hayward (CB – 2nd), Mike Daniels (DL – 4th), Terrell Manning (LB – 5th)
Questionable Picks: Jerron McMillian (S – 4th), B.J. Coleman (QB – 7th), Andrew Datko (OL – 7th)
Grade: B+
Review: The biggest weakness for the Packers last season was exposed during the postseason: the defense.  Through the draft Green Bay upgrade every level of their defense through out this year’s draft.  Perry, Worthy and Daniels could see serious playing time as rookies this up coming season while Hayward and Manning give the Packers speed and talented backups at the respective positions.
 

Minnesota Vikings
Good Picks: Matt Kalil (OT – 1st), Harrison Smith (S – 1st), Jarius Wright (WR – 4th), Greg Childs (WR – 4th), Blair Walsh (K – 6th),
Questionable Picks: Josh Robinson (CB – 3rd), Rhett Ellison (FB – 4th), Robert Blanton (S – 5th), Audie Cole (LB – 7th), Trevor Guyton (DE – 7th)
Grade: B
Review: The Vikings got two NFL ready players in the 1st round in Kalil and Smith.  In the fourth round the grabbed two underrated wide receivers (Wright and Childs) which will give young quarterback Christian Ponder more weapons and top pick Kalil will help protect Ponder.  The Vikings are doing all they can to make sure Ponder can succeed.


NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Good Picks: Peter Konz (OL – 2nd), Bradie Ewing (FB – 5th), Travian Robertson (DT – 7th)
Questionable Picks: Lamar Holmes (OT – 3rd), Jonathan Massaquoi (DE – 5th), Charles Mitchell (S – 6th),
Grade: C
Review: After trading away numerous picks last season to make sure they got Julio Jones, the Falcons under performed in this year’s draft.  Although they drafted some good, NFL ready players (Konz and Ewing) they used most of their picks on players that could be labeled “projects” who are a year or two away from truly contributing to the team.
 

Carolina Panthers
Good Picks: Luke Kuechly (LB – 1st), Joe Adams (WR – 4th), Josh Norman (CB – 5th), Brad Nortman (P – 6th)
Questionable Picks: Amini Silatolu (OG – 2nd), Frank Alexander (DE – 4th), D.J. Campbell (S – 7th)
Grade: B
Review: The Panthers used their first round pick on one of the best all around defensive players in the draft, Luke Kuechly.  Despite using their fourth and fifth round picks to get some underrated talented players (Adams and Norman) the Panthers overreached with some of their other picks selecting players that are raw talents that need development.
 

New Orleans Saints
Good Picks: Nick Toon (WR – 4th)
Questionable Picks: Akiem Hicks (DT – 3rd), Corey White (S – 5th), Andrew Tiller (OG – 6th), Marcel Jones (OL – 7th)
Grade: C-
Review: The turmoil of the Saints offseason and having Sean Payton not involved in this year’s draft showed in the weak draft for the Saints this season.  New Orleans used many of their picks on players who are projects in need of polishing and development before they are ready to make a serious impact in the NFL.  The Saints did pick up an experience, talented receiver who could see some playing time this season (Toon).
 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Good Picks: Mark Barron (S – 1st), Doug Martin (RB – 1st), Lavonte David (LB – 2nd), Najee Goode (LB – 5th), Drake Dunsmore (FB – 7th)
Questionable Picks: Keith Tandy (CB – 6th), Michael Smith (RB – 7th)
Grade: A-
Review: The Buccaneers had a great draft I which they addressed their needs with top prospects at each position.  The Bucs re-tooled their defense by selecting the top Safety prospect in the draft (Barron) and the most overlooked talented, pro ready Linebacker in the draft (David).  Tampa also rebuilt their offensive backfield by selecting one of the best running backs available in this year’s draft class (Martin) along with a “football smart” and talented fullback who could start this coming season (Dunsmore).
 

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
Good Picks: Michael Floyd (WR – 1st), Jamell Fleming (CB – 3rd), Nate Potter (OL – 7th)
Questionable Picks: Bobby Massie (OL – 4th), Senio Kelemete (OG – 5th), Justin Bethel (S – 6th), Ryan Lindley (QB – 6th)
Grade: B-
Review: After finishing the 2011 season 7-2 one would think the Cardinals would go into the draft looking to reload with more talent to make a run at the division winner 49ers.  Instead they selected a batch of interesting prospects who need development (Massie, Kelemete, Bethel) along with an overrated Quarterback (Lindley).  Good news for Cardinal fans is they selected one of the most talented football players in this year’s draft class (Floyd) and a tough, hard hitting defensive back (Fleming).


San Francisco 49ers
Good Picks: LaMichael James (RB – 2nd), Darius Fleming (LB – 5th), Trent Robinson (CB – 6th)
Questionable Picks: A.J. Jenkins (WR – 1st), Joe Looney (OG – 4th), Jason Slowey (C – 6th), Cam Johnson (DE – 7th)
Grade: B-
Review: The phrase “the rich get richer” is an apt description for the 49ers 2012 draft.  They didn’t select many high level, NFL ready prospects, they get add depth on both sides of the ball.  San Francisco got lucky when collegiate super talent LeMichael James fell to them in the second round.
 

Saint Louis Rams
Good Picks: Michael Brockers (DT – 1st), Brian Quick (WR – 2nd), Janoris Jenkins (CB – 2nd), Isaiah Pead (RB – 2nd), Trumaine Johnson (CB – 3rd),
Questionable Picks: Chris Givens (WR – 4th), Rokevious Watkins (OG – 5th), Greg Zuerlein (K – 6th), Aaron Brown (LB – 7th), Daryl Richardson (RB – 7th)
Grade: B
Review: The Rams made the best out of their drafting situation by twice trading down to obtain more draft picks and they used their top picks on players who can make an impact on this team as rookies.   Brockers and Pead are both high level football talents who could start as rookies in the NFL.  The Rams also drafted two talented cornerbacks who have had some off the field issues (Jenkins and Johnson) that new Head Coach Jeff Fisher will look to bring out the best in them.
 

Seattle Seahawks
Good Picks: Russell Wilson (QB – 3rd), Robert Turbin (RB – 4th), Jaye Howard (DT – 4th), Greg Scruggs (DT – 7th)
Questionable Picks: Bruce Irvin (LB – 1st), Bobby Wagner (LB – 2nd), Korey Toomer (LB – 5th), Jeremy Lane (CB – 6th), Winston Guy (S – 6th), J.R. Sweezy (DT – 7th), 
Grade: C+
Review: The Seahawks for a second straight year overreach on a first round selection that would have probably been available in the second round.  Irvin was a blitzing specialist at the collegiate level who when game planned against seemed to disappear.  Seattle did well with their mid round selections by drafting a talented quarterback who started most of his college career (Wilson), a talented power back (Turbin), and an underrated skilled defensive lineman (Howard).