This is my 17th season projecting NFL regular
season and playoff results. As per my
tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and
conference. Only two times (Super Bowl 34
and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end
up in the Super Bowl. But on the flip
side, the last eleven straight seasons has a team in gone from Worst to First
to make the playoffs in the NFL; I only projected 3 of those 11. So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one
is perfect.
Quick cheat sheet to my system
*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going
through the full team’s schedule
*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many
more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get. These are based on what I label as “swing”
games that could go either way.
So first here are my AFC projections and notes for each AFC
team, division, followed by playoff projections and conference winner.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Projected Record: 4-12
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -2
Swing Game(s): Sept 14th at home vs Miami; Oct 19th
at home vs Minnesota; Nov 9 at home vs Kansas City; Dec 21 at Oakland
Notes: Overall the Bills have a tough schedule, playing road
games at Chicago, at Detroit, and at Denver.
Also expect interdivision
matchups with the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets to be hard fought but seeing the
Bills finish the season with a losing interdivision record. A lot of young talent that still needs time
to gain experience and chemistry is what the roster is filled with.
Miami Dolphins
Projected Record: 7-9
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2
Swing Game(s): Sept 14th at Buffalo; Oct 12th
at home vs Green Bay; Nov 2 at home vs San Diego; Dec 7th at home vs
Baltimore
Notes: Expect Ryan Tannehill to make positive strides in his
third season as the Dolphins starting Quarterback with the arrival of Knoeshawn
Moreno, a major upgrade at the running back position. Last season Miami had the 26th
ranked rushing offense; with Moreno and a more cohesive offensive line unit
that should improve. The biggest stumbling block for Miami is their bye week
comes early in the season (Week 5) and immediately following that five of their
next eight games scheduled are road games.
Not an easy task, especially at Denver, at Detroit, at Chicago and at
the Jets in December.
New England Patriots
Projected Record: 12-4
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -4
Swing Game(s): Sept 29th at Kansas City; Oct 26
at home vs Chicago; Nov 2nd at home vs Denver; Dec 7th at
San Diego
Notes: The Patriots have a rollercoaster schedule in
2014. Four of their six games to start
the season are on the road then after their Bye Week (Week 10) the play four
straight games against teams with Pro Bowl Quarterbacks (Colts, Lions, Packers,
Chargers). Although I think the Patriots
will have a good overall season they will be battle tested playing against all
four NFC North teams.
New York Jets
Projected Record: 6-10
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2
Swing Games: Sept 22nd at home vs Chicago; Sept
28th at home vs Detroit; Nov 23rd at Buffalo; Dec 7th
at Minnesota; Dec 14th at Tennessee
Notes: The Jets have two major question marks coming into
the 2014 season: Will they have quality Quarterback play and the health/depth
at the Cornerback position. From
September 14th through October 16th they face off against
six of the top ten passing offenses from 2013; a dubious task for a team with
little depth at cornerback. Furthermore,
can the Jets offense keep up with these high powered offenses? How long will Gino Smith stay the starting
Quarterback if he commits too many turnovers? Can the Jets pass defense force
any turnovers without any ball-hawk cornerbacks?
Projected AFC East Winner: New England Patriots
AFC South
Houston Texans
Projected Record: 8-8
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -3
Swing Games: Sept 14th at Oakland; Sept 21st
at the Giants; Oct 5th at Dallas; Nov 16th at Cleveland;
Nov 23rd at home vs Cincinnati
Notes: The Texans are
a talented team but are underwhelming at the Quarterback position. Having to play four games against the AFC
North will definitely test their offense’s ability to score consistently enough
to win games. They only play four high
powered offensive teams on their schedules so they are fortunate that they will
not be subjected to many potential shootouts.
Expect the Texans to win half of their games thanks to the defense’s
ferocity.
Indianapolis Colts
Projected Record: 10-6
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3
Swing Games: Sept 15th at home vs Philadelphia;
Sept 21st at Jacksonville; Oct 9th at Houston; Nov 16th
at home vs New England; Dec 21st at Dallas
Notes: Let’s be realistic, without Andrew Luck this team is
potentially 3-13 in 2014 considering the teams they have to play. Their first two games are against two of the
top offenses in the NFL, then their two games before the bye week they are on
the road to play two teams with Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks. But wait, it gets better; after the Bye Week
(Week 10) they get to play the Patriots and Week 16 they get to go to Dallas. The only “good news” for the Colts season is
that the teams they have to play on the road have a combined losing record in
2013. So maybe they are “Lucky”.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Record: 6-10
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3
Swing Games: Sept 21 at home vs Indianapolis; Oct 12th
at Tennessee; Oct 26th at home vs Miami; Nov 9th at home
vs Dallas; Dec 18th at home vs Tennessee
Notes: The Jaguars are better team then last year, that’s
the good news. The bad news is they have
to play many other teams that have upgraded their rosters as well. The Jaguars will play every team tough,
although they do not have the offensive firepower of their opponents, their
defense is better than last season’s statistics show. Head Coach Gus Bradley is building a
competitive team that in a couple years could develop into a contender.
Tennessee Titans
Projected Record: 5-11
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -2
Swing Games: Sept 14th at home vs Dallas; Oct 12th
at home vs Jacksonville; Oct 26th at home vs Houston; Dec 7th
at home vs the NY Giants
Notes: When you look over the Titans roster you see a good
mix of young and veteran talent. But
when you look at their schedule they could potentially start the season 0-4 and
then potentially lose five straight games after their Bye Week (Week 9). I am unsure how their offense is going to
keep up against teams like the Eagles, Redskins, and Cowboys or how they are
going to fair against tough defenses like the Steelers, Ravens, Bengals and
even the Browns defense could be a matchup problem for the Titans.
Projected AFC South Winner: Indianapolis Colts
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Projected Record: 9-7
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3
Swing Games: Sept 11
at home vs Pittsburgh; Oct 5th at Indianapolis; Nov 2nd
at Pittsburgh; Dec 7th at Miami; Dec 21st at Houston
Notes: The Ravens
improved their defense this past offseason but their offense’s ability to be
productive and consistent is the big question.
They open the season with three straight games against division rivals
followed by four of the next six games on the road. After
their Bye Week (Week 11) the Ravens have to two of the top ten offenses from 2013
(At New Orleans then home versus the Chargers).
This may be another season where Baltimore have to lean on its defense
to bail them out if they want to make the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Record: 8-8
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -3
Swing Games: Oct 5th at New England; Oct 19th
at Indianapolis; Nov 30th at Tampa Bay; Dec 7th at home
vs Pittsburgh
Notes: The Bengals
have one of the most difficult schedules of the 2014 NFL season. Their Bye Week is early in the season (Week
4) and come out of that Bye Week playing three straight 2013 playoff teams (At
the Patriots, Home versus Carolina, At the Colts). Meanwhile, five of their last seven games are
on the road but one of those home games is against the Denver Broncos. Time will tell if the Bengals new offensive
and defensive coordinators are up to the challenge or if they will come up
short compared to their predecessors who are now Head Coaches in the NFL.
Cleveland Browns
Projected Record: 3-13
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1
Swing Games: Oct 5th at Tennessee; Nov 2nd
at home vs Tampa; Dec 14th at home vs Cincinnati
Notes: The Browns
open the season against three potential playoff teams (Saints, Steelers,
Ravens) then have an early Bye Week (Week 4) then five of their next nine games
are on the road. The only way the Browns
can be competitive this season is with good defense and offensive ball control
with the running game. They will not be
blown out in many games but their overall roster is lacking compared to many of
their opponents in 2014.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Record: 10-6
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +1 and -3
Swing Games: Sept 21st at Carolina; Oct 26th
at home vs Colts; Nov 2nd at home vs Baltimore; Nov 30th
at home vs Saints
Notes: The Steelers
have they least treacherous schedule of all of the AFC North teams in 2014. They play only two games versus 2013 playoff
teams (Carolina and Indianapolis) before their Bye Week (Week 12). After their Bye Week they do have a difficult
stretch to end the season against the Saints, Bengals twice, Falcons and
Chiefs. But if they gain enough positive
momentum before this five game stretch it is reasonable to say they could come
out of that with a winning record and seal a division win. Also, expect Lance Moore to put up better
numbers at Wide Receiver in 2014 with the Steelers than Emmanuel Sanders did in
2013.
Projected AFC North Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Projected Record: 12-4
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +2 and -3
Swing Games: Oct 19th at home vs San Francisco;
Oct 23rd at home vs San Diego; Nov 2nd at New England;
Nov 16th at St. Louis; Dec 14th at San Diego
Notes: The Broncos as
a team maybe have a better roster than last season, especially on defense. Time will tell if the early Bye Week (Week 4)
will be a positive or negative for them.
After the Bye Week they play two of 2013’s top defenses (49ers and
Cardinals) along with two of 2013’s top offense teams (Patriots and Chargers). Don’t expect the Broncos to have an easy go
of the 2014 season since they have to play the NFC West which is the home of
four of the top ten NFL defenses in 2013.
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Record: 6-10
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1
Swing Games: Sept 21 at Miami; Sept 29th at home
vs New England; Oct 26th at home vs St. Louis; Nov 9th at
Buffalo; Dec 21st at Pittsburgh
Notes: The Chiefs
have a much more difficult schedule ahead of them in 2014 compared to last
season. Aside from having to play the
four teams from the NFC West (all are 2013 Top Ten Defenses) but they also have
to play well coached defensive teams like the Rams, Jets and Steelers. The Chiefs have an efficient offense, not a
high powered offense so if they get behind it will not be easy to make a comeback. Also considering they play three of their
first five games against 2013 Playoff teams, do not expect the Chiefs to start
the season on a hot streak like last season.
Oakland Raiders
Projected Record: 5-11
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -2
Swing Games: Sept 14th at home vs Houston; Oct 12th
at home vs San Diego; Oct 19th at home vs Arizona; Oct 26th
at Cleveland; Nov 20th at home vs Kansas City
Notes: The Raiders
have more talent on their roster than many people would expect. The problem for them is they play many teams
that have well coached defenses (The Jets, Patriots, Cardinals, 49ers,
Seahawks, and Rams) while the Raiders are starting a rookie Quarterback. I think Derek Carr will be a better pro
compared to his older brother, the Raiders will likely have a rollercoaster
season in which they will be tested on both sides of the ball.
San Diego Chargers
Projected Record: 8-8
Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential: +3 and -1
Swing Games: Sept 8th at Arizona; Sept 21st
at Buffalo; Oct 19th at home vs Kansas City; Dec 7th at
home vs New England; Dec 14th at home vs Denver
Notes: San Diego has
a good team but they face a tough lineup in 2014. They open their season playing two of the top
defenses in the NFL (Cardinals and Seahawks), play two straight road games
before their Bye Week (At Denver and Miami; Bye Week is Week 10), and end their
season playing four consecutive 2013 Playoff teams (Patriots, Broncos, 49ers
and Chiefs). Not an easy schedule but if
they can get a few games to go their way, they could still make the playoffs
with the talent they have on the roster.
AFC West Projected Winner: Denver Broncos
Projected AFC Playoff Picture
1. New England Patriots
2. Denver Broncos
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Houston Texans
Projected Playoff Results:
Wild Card Round - Ravens defeat Colts; Steelers defeat
Texans
Divisional Round - Patriots defeat Ravens; Broncos defeat
Steelers
AFC Championship - Patriots (home team) defeat Broncos
