I heard it said numerous times over the last 20 years:
“Projecting College Quarterbacks to the NFL is an inexact science”. This mantra has been repeated by many scouts,
coaches, and TV analysts. Some say it as
a cover for incorrect prognostications, some say it because they are just not
sure about a specific prospect, and others say it because they heard others say
it so they repeat it. The truth is that
there are some objective factors to consider when projecting from college to
the professional arena for Quarterbacks.
The real problem is the coaches and environment those players come from
then go to after they leave college.
What tends to be overlooked when evaluating the Quarterback
position is the commonalities versus the difference between Professional and
Collegiate American Football. The first
major similarity between both levels are the Quarterback must be accurate,
keeping the opportunities for the opposing defense to force turnovers down to a
minimum. Accuracy is more than just
about throwing the ball to the right spot or the open player, it’s also about
communicating to the team about what the QB needs to execute the play on
hand. The second element is arm
strength, since the man throwing the ball needs enough juice behind the throw
to get it to his receivers. If the
Quarterback does not have enough arm strength he runs into two major problems:
giving defenders more time to attempt to break up the pass attempt and forces
the receiver of the pass to wait on the ball, potentially putting them in the
position to have to change their planned route on that play in order to adapt
to the throw.
The major difference between the two levels of play come
down to what, in any area of life, separates the good from the great: the
mental aspect. In college, players who
are talented can be great because the talent they play against is diluted
compared to the Pro game. As a result,
if that player happens to be the best athlete on the field, then success is
more of a sure thing for that player and his team. But on the Professional level, having talent
is never enough because everyone at that level is talented. In the National Football League (NFL) are the
best of the best Football players whose jobs depend on them perfecting their
skills. So for the Pro QB, the cerebral
aspect of the game is more important since they have to spend hours upon hours
preparing to execute on game day and deal with numerous obstacles on and off
the field. The great Quarterbacks have
to outthink their opposition, out work them, and have the competitive fire to
push through adversity.
Evaluating how a player projects to the next level is
layered; while it is not an exact science, there are elements about who the
player is and knowing what they can and can’t do that transcend everything
else. This is where the rubber meets
the road for many coaches, scouts, and TV analysts. This issue with projecting Quarterbacks from
college to the Professional ranks is embodied in the Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback situation. This past
offseason the Eagles traded away starting QB Nick Foles to the St. Louis Rams
for Sam Bradford. A couple months later
they signed former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow to compete for one of the
backup Quarterback positions, with the assumption Sam Bradford would be the
starter in 2015.
With the Eagles QB Depth Chart four players deep (most teams
usually have 2-3 Quarterbacks during the season on the roster), all of these
players have unique backgrounds and attributes.
Three of the four are former 1st round Draft Picks (Bradford,
Sanchez, and Tebow) while three of the four passed for over 8,000 yards in
their careers and threw for over 80 career Touchdowns (Bradford, Barkley, and Tebow).
Let’s quickly profile each player:
-Sam Bradford
(University of Oklahoma: 2007-2009; #1 Overall Pick in 2010 NFL Draft by St.
Louis Rams)
Positives: Sam Bradford
is one of the most awarded and talented college Quarterbacks of the last 20
years of college football. In the year
Sam won the Heisman Trophy (2008), he threw for 4,720 yards and 50
Touchdowns. An accurate QB in college,
Sam Bradford only threw 16 interceptions and had a completion percentage of
67.6 percent for his college career. He
has a great throwing arm and excellent work ethic to match his talents. Bradford was able to maximize his abilities
with his high Football IQ and commitment to helping his team win games.
Negatives: Since college, Sam Bradford has had health
issues including Shoulder, ankle and knee injuries that have taken him off the
field numerous times. Of his four
seasons coming into 2015 NFL campaign, He has only been healthy enough to play
through two of them. When Sam has been
healthy, he has put up solid statistics, but his completion percentage is a bit
of a disappointment compared to his college numbers. In the NFL, Bradford has a career average
58.6 completion percentage; that is almost a ten percent drop from college.
-Mark Sanchez
(University of Southern California 2006-2008; #5 Overall Pick in 2009 NFL Draft
by New York Jets)
Positives: Mark Sanchez
capped a top tier season in 2008 at USC in which he was the top Quarterback in
the PAC-10 Conference with becoming the Jets 1st round pick and
quickly being appointed the starting job.
With above average arm strength, what was considered Mark’s real
strength for playing the QB position is his high Football IQ and work ethic
on/off the field.
Negatives: Mark Sanchez
only had one season as a starting quarterback at USC, a lack of playing
experience that hurt him when he got to the NFL. Never the most accurate quarterback in
college, those issues multiplied at the NFL level where with the Jets he finished
two seasons with more interceptions than touchdowns (2009 & 2012). Mark’s only above average arm talent has also
held him back with his inability to squeeze passes into tight openings for his
receivers consistently or throw the deep pass with accuracy.
-Matt Barkley
(University of Southern California: 2009-2012; 98th Overall Pick in
2013 Draft by Philadelphia Eagles)
Positives: At USC
Matt Barkley had a stellar career with three straight seasons with a completion
percentage over 62 percent and a minimum of 26 passing touchdowns. He showed the pocket presence in college that
is necessary at the NFL level; his ability to read defenses and be poised under
pressure was evident. With good arm
strength, above average accuracy, and a high Football IQ, Matt Barkley looked
ready made to be a solid NFL QB.
Negatives: Matt Barkley
was drafted by a team (Philadelphia Eagles) who were not looking to develop him
to be the Quarterback of the future; they selected him because his skill set
was expected to work well within Head Coach Chip Kelly’s offense. Barkley has looked inconsistent during
preseason and regular season games. At
times he has shown he can execute a team’s offensive game plan with precision,
other times he has looked flustered under heavy defensive pressure. The reality is that unless Matt Barkley is on
a team that believes they can develop him to be their future starter, he will
never get the number of opportunities on the field he needs to grow into a
successful QB in the NFL.
-Tim Tebow (University
of Florida: 2006-2009; 25th Overall Pick in 2010 Draft by Denver
Broncos)
Positives: While
at Florida Tim Tebow had a career that places himself as one of the greatest
college players of all time. Aside from
winning two national titles and a Heisman Trophy, Tim also threw 88 career
passing touchdowns and ran for 57 career rushing touchdowns. Tebow has a strong throwing arm that he
displayed at both the college and pro levels when throwing the deep ball. Also, he is a very good athlete and
ultra-competitor willing to do whatever it takes to help his team win.
Negatives: Tim Tebow
has two major issues as a Quarterback that he has yet to overcome. The first is his inconsistency on short and
intermediate passing plays. Either he
has trouble making the throw accurately or, takes too long to pull the trigger
on the throw in a timely manner.
Secondly, Tim has never been truly coached to be a Quarterback in the
style of the NFL’s game. Tim was in a
triple-option, run first offense at Florida in which he was not asked to read
defenses or make quick decision throws.
In the NFL teams have tried to build washed down offensive game plans to
work around his short comings. Up to
this point I have not seen any coaches instructing or working with Tebow on how
to read defenses and work through the progression of different options during a
called offensive play.
So with each of these Quarterbacks on the Eagles roster,
there are reasons why they have not had major success at the NFL level and also
reasons why they could be successful at the NFL level. Whether it is injuries (Sam Bradford),
inconsistent play (Mark Sanchez), not being put in a position to be successful
(Matt Barkley) or lack of coaching and instruction (Tim Tebow), there is always
an explanation for why a player’s career has gone as it has over time.
Now no one could have predicted Bradford would sustain ankle
and knee injuries in the NFL but the Rams could have put a better constructed
offensive line in front of the rookie Quarterback in order to allow him more
protection.
We knew that Sanchez
only played one full season as a starter in college, so it’s not an unrealistic
stretch to think he probably needed time to develop before being “thrown to the
wolves” in the NFL. The Jets could have
signed a veteran Quarterback to start at the beginning of Sanchez’s career,
allowing Mark to learn how to be a pro and buy time for him to further develop
his craft.
What if Matt Barkley would’ve been drafted by the Washington
Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, or Houston Texans instead of the Eagles? He would’ve been drafted to teams that are
influx at the starting Quarterback position with offensive minded Head Coaches
who would look to develop Barkley, giving him ample opportunities to show what
he can do at the NFL level.
Tim Tebow is a hardworking, ultra-competitive athlete who
wants to help his team win. Instead of
building an offensive game plan to mask his below average throwing mechanics
and underdeveloped cerebral Quarterback skills, coaches should have worked with
him to improve those weak areas. Tim has
been stereotyped and quantified instead of developed and properly coached.
In summary, an individual with enough football knowledge
watching a Quarterback in college can make honest assessments about a player’s
strengths and weakness along with how those positives and negatives would
translate against higher level competition.
Too many times teams and coaching staffs attempt to force a player to
fit their system instead of giving that player the tools needed to be
successful. Quarterbacks need receivers
to throw to, an offensive line to block for him, and coaches who will develop a
game plan to help him to fully utilize his skills while improving his weak
areas.
Often in the NFL Quarterbacks are burdened with “saving” or
“resurrecting” a franchises, the hopes and dreams of a team and fan base are
put on that players shoulders. Instead
of building a team that can execute the coach’s winning formula, too much is
invested in one player. That one player
needs others around him to be able to execute on each play in order for the
Quarterback to have the chance to move the offense in a positive direction in
order to score.
Look at all the great Hall of Fame Quarterbacks:
-Bart Starr played for one of the greatest coaches of
all-time (Vince Lombardi) and on one of the most talented teams in NFL history
(1960’s Green Bay Packers).
-Terry Bradshaw had the luxury of throwing the ball to two
future Hall of Fame Wide Receivers (Lynn Swann and John Stallworth) and was
coached by a Hall of Fame Head Coach (Chuck Noll).
-Joe Montana was drafted and coached by one of the greatest
offensive minds in NFL history (Bill Walsh) who built a team for Montana to win
with (1980’s San Francisco 49ers).
-John Elway lost numerous Super Bowls before he had a 2,000
yard rusher at Running Back (Terrell Davis) and a future Hall of Famer at Tight
End (Shannon Sharpe); only then did he win two titles with the Denver Broncos
Of those four QBs I listed above, Elway had the most pure
talent, Bradshaw had the best deep throw ability, Montana had the highest
football IQ, and Starr was an ultra-competitive leader. Yet none of those superlatives meant nothing
without being in the right situation to allow them to be successful. Whether the Eagles start Bradford, Sanchez,
Barkley or Tebow this season there is a constant variable: it is up to the
coaches to put them in a position to be successful in order for those players
to overcome their weakness and best utilize their strengths.
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