UFC 129 Aftermath

In front of the largest crowd in UFC history, the biggest MMA fight card of the year played out and now its time to review and look ahead

UFC Welterweight Champion George St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields
Result: St. Pierre via Unanimous Decision
George won in very unenthusiastic fashion. While this is a big name for GSP to add to his legacy as he builds his resume as one of the best in MMA history, he has shown a pattern of wanting to win safely more so then win convincingly. Both fighters refused to turn this into a war; neither Shields or St. Pierre really went after the other. Even when GSP had damage to his eye Shields did not capitalize. St. Pierre won because he did more then Shields not because he really "won" the fight.
Next for GSP: It seems like when the stage is the biggest (UFC 100 against Thiago Alves; UFC 129 against Jake Shields) George can't muster enough aggression when expectations are high for whatever reason. Hopefully someone in his camp will take the time to explain to him that putting on an indifferent perfomance hurts his image, reputation, and legacy as a fighter. I do not want to see GSP fight Anderson Silva until he shows in a fight the drive to dominate and be the best. A matchup with Strikeforce Welterweight Champ Nick Diaz would answer a lot of questions at this point.
Next for Shields: The reason why Shields won 15 fights in a row because he was determined to find a way in every fight to win at all costs. Yet Saturday night he looked nervous and unwilling to push the pace of the fight. The best thing for Shields is to get back into the Octagon and fight again soon. A matchup with Josh Koscheck would be good for the morale of both fighters after they both lost to GSP.

UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick
Result: Aldo via Unanimous decision
This was one of the most exciting fights of the night. Hominick showed that a solid standup fighter who is willing to maul an opponent on the ground has a chance against Aldo. Have to give alot of credit to the Champ for perservering through Hominick's pressure for five rounds. Aldo won more rounds then Hominick, its just ashame someone had to loose.
Next for Aldo: At the post-fight press conference, UFC President Dana White announced that Aldo would next defend his Featherweight belt against Chad Mendes at UFC 133 in Philadelphia. Seems like a short amount of time between fights for a guy who got his share of damage in a five round war. Three months and a week? Before you know it Aldo will channel his inner-Nick Diaz and complain he is being overworked and forced to fight too often....I'm just kidding.
Next for Hominick: Hominick may not have won the fight but he earned great respect from the fans, other fighters and the UFC brass. After he has sometime to heal from his "cosmetic injuries" and time with his new born child, a fight with either Josh Grispi (if he beats George Roop) or Diego Nunes (if he defeats Kenny Florian) would make sense and also ensure he doesn't drop to far back in the rankings top heavy featherweight division.

Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida
Result: Machida via Knockout
Either Randy Couture didn't execute his gameplan right or the Lyoto Machida that dominated Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans is back. Machida used an old school Kyokushin Karate kick (also known in Kung Fu as a form of the "Craine Kick") to knockout Couture. Steven Seagal and the Blackhouse Camp can try to spin this all they want, but Machida's extensive background in Karate is where that kick came from.
Next for Machida: This win stops a two fight losing streak for "The Dragon" and gives him the opportunity to start working his way back into contention for the light heavyweight belt. Although he wants to fight on the UFC 134: Rio card, all of his potential competition is booked for the next couple months. Best thing for Machida is to take sometime and see how fights such as Jackson-Hamill, Griffin-Shogun, Franklin-Little Nog, and Evans-Davis turn out. Only other option is for Strikeforce to loan the UFC Renato Sobral to fight Machida on the Rio card (unlikely, but it would be an interesting fight between two brazillians).
Next for Couture: After the fight Couture looked convinced he was done fighting. He's going to be 48 years old and he said he doesn't want to do what Chuck Liddell did (you know receiving brain damage in your last few fights before you get a desk job as a UFC executive). Couture has many hollywood options to go with and he will appear from time to time as an "advocate" for MMA fighters. The man is a legend and one of the best all time, let him walk away on his terms.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz
Result: Matyushenko via Knockout
Vlad "The Janitor" showed that there is still serious power left in his hands. Brilz lacked the saavy or refined skills to stay with Matyuskenko for long and the fight was over quickly.
Next for Matyushenko: Vlad isn't going to be working his way up the ranks to fight for the belt at this point in his career, but he is good enough to hang around for some interesting matchups. If Tito Ortiz beats Ryan Bader then you can have Ortiz-Matyushenko 2 or if Vlad "The Janitor" doesn't want to wait around too long for his next fight a matchup with Brandon Vera would workout for both fighters.
Next for Brilz: Going 3-3 in six fights in the UFC is respectable but its not going to help your chances of staying in the big leagues. After losing two fights in a row against MMA veterans, Brilz needs a fight against a fighter who isn't so saavy. A fight with Alexander Gustafsson would be interesting, testing Brilz standup skills and Gustafsson's wrestling skills.

Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson
Result: Henderson via unanimous decision
Although it was not the most exciting fight, Henderson won because he wanted it more the Bocek. Bocek had the crowd behind him but it wasn't enough as Henderson got his Mojo back and was able to counter Bocek's takedowns and not allow Bocek to do any damage.
Next for Henderson: Now that he has excercised the demons of his loss to Anthony Pettis in December, Henderson needs to keep working his way up the ranks of the crowded lightweight division. A matchup with either Sean Sherk or Takanori Gomi would be a good test for the former WEC Lightweight Champ.
Next for Bocek: At this point in his career, Bocek has showed that he is basically a gatekeeper to the top level of the lightweight division in the UFC. His four losses have been to Ben Henderson, Jim Miller, Mac Danzig, and Frank Edgar. Maybe its time that Bocek and Kurt Pellegrino fight to see who stays relevant in the UFC Lightweight division.

Quick thoughts on some Preliminary Card Fights

Rory McDonald vs Nate Diaz: After consecutive losses to McDonald and Dong Hyun Kim its apparent that Diaz does not have the strength to hang in the Welterweight division. McDonald threw him around like a rag doll in their matchup. Diaz put on some entertaining fights as a lightweight so maybe he will go back down to 155 or maybe he needs to spend more time in the weightroom ASAP. Meanwhile McDonald bounced back well from his last second loss to Carlos Condit. A fight with Paulo Thiago would be interesting.

Sean Pierson vs. Jake Ellenberger: Ellenberger has now won four straight fights. He is a tough fighter and has proven that he can hang in the UFC's welterweight division. Matching him up to fight John Hathaway would be an interesting measuring stick for both young fighters. In the meantime, Sean Pierson isn't getting any younger. The UFC may keep him around for the next Canada fight card after Vancouver and there is no telling when that will be.

5 things to keep in mind for UFC 129

UFC 129 this Saturday night in Toronto, Canada is the biggest MMA fight card of the year. The Rogers Center (home of the Toronto Blue Jays Major League Baseball team) with be filled with 55,000 MMA fans and the UFC estimates the gate will be around 11 million dollars. Also, there are two UFC Championship belts up for grabs that night. So here are 5 things to keep an eye out for this Saturday:

1. Jake Shields is better then you think he is
Chuck Liddel has described Jake Shield's takedowns as "awkward in a good way" while Jon Fitch has said Shields is "stronger then he looks". UFC Welterweight Champion George St. Pierre has said Shields is the toughest opponent he has faced in a long time and that he is not underestimating him. But even when you are not underestimating Jake Shields, in some way you will overlook some element of his game. The guy has won 15 straight fights for a reason. During his winning streak there have been three different men who have held the UFC Welterweight belt (GSP, Matt Serra and Matt Hughes). Shields always finds a way to win and that should worry St. Pierre the most. You will see the best Jake Shields ever in the Octagon this Saturday; is George St. Pierre really prepared for that?

2. Jose Aldo has never faced an opponent like Mark Hominick.
Since joining the WEC, Jose Aldo has faced fighters who are wrestlers or takedown experts. He has beaten all of them. But Mark Hominick is different then all of Aldo's previous opponents because Hominick has elite level boxing skills and is underrated on the ground. Hominick trains with Olympic level boxers as sparring parteners. The current Featherweight Champ has been known for his excellent standup skills. Yet Aldo's best chance at winning this fight is taking it to the ground and submitting Hominick. I cannot remember the last time Aldo attempted a takedown. He hasn't even submitted an opponent in 6 years. Aldo is considered one of the best fighters in the world yet Hominick has more then a puncher's chance to leave the octagon with Aldo's featherweight belt. Can Aldo handle Hominick on the feet?

3. Can Lyoto Machida find his form or will Randy Couture grind out a win?
Before his last two losses to Maurico "Shogun" Rua and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, Lyoto Machida had never lost a fight. He had beaten aggressive fighters like Thiago Silva and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. He has beaten top level wrestlers such as Tito Ortiz and Rashad Evans. In 2005 he was able to stiffle B.J. Penn en route to a Decission victory. So the fact that he is on a two fight losing streak is perplexing. Randy Couture has said that he thinks his style of fighting matches up well with Machida's allussive fighting style. Although Couture has a wrestling base, his style is different then Rashad Evans or Tito Ortiz: Couture is strategist who uses his mind to maximize his physical skills. If Randy can get his hands on Machida, it will be a long night for the former UFC Light Heavyweight Champ. Machida has a good ground game but I'm unsure if he is prepared for a fighter like Randy Couture who is willing to grind out a win. Machida needs this win more then Couture which makes Lyoto a desperate fighter coming into this matchup while Randy is relaxed and ready for war.

4. Ben Henderson has something to prove
Before losing his WEC Lightweight belt to Anthony "Showtime" Pettis, Ben Henderson had won 10 straight fights. He had beaten the best of the WEC lightweight division and people were wondering how he would fair against the best of the UFC. Now Henderson's first fight since losing his WEC belt is against a fighter who some view as the "gatekeeper" to being considered a contender in the lightweight division. Mark Bocek's three losses in the UFC have been to Frank Edgar, Mac Danzig, and Jim Miller. Henderson is more talented then Bocek yet the fight is in Canada and Bocek will have the crowd behind him. The pressure is on Henderson to live up to expectations and forget about his loss to Pettis.

5. There has never been a UFC event with 55,000 fans, how will the fighters handle it?
Veteran fighters like George St. Pierre, Jake Shields, and Randy Couture have fought in many types of enviroments and they know how to handle the pressure and the crowd. But Canadian fighters Mark Hominick, Mark Bocek, Rory McDonald, and Sean Pierson have never been involved in a MMA event such as this. The crowd will be mostly behind them, how will the handle that pressure? Also young fighters such as Jose Aldo, Jason Brillz, Ben Henderson, and Jake Ellenberger have never fought on such a large stage stage before with 55,000 people or an event with the amount of publicity leading up to it. This is a big deal for the UFC and Canada, it will be interesting to see which of these fighters come of age in the Octagon and who will let the pressure crush them.

The chaos known as the UFC Welterweight Division

Thanks to the Majority Draw between B.J. Penn and Jon Fitch at UFC 127, the UFC has to honestly deal with the state of their welterweight division. The UFC has been fortunate that Champion George St. Pierre has dominated the division for close to four years and is one of the biggest superstars in all of Mixed Martial Arts. But now that St. Pierre is looking to close out his Welterweight reign (if he beats Jake Shields in April) the UFC has the potential for chaos.

UFC President Dana White has said if St. Pierre wins in April that he would move up to Middleweight and have a "Super fight" type matchup with Anderson Silva. Since I do not want to discount St. Pierre's next opponent Jake Shields (who has not lost a fight since December 2004) I will not project a victory. But lets theorize the ultimate "What If" question: What if St. Pierre beats Shields, moves up to Middleweight, and vacates the Welterweight Belt? Now What?

Looking at the Welterweight division as is now there is no clear cut next in line type of contender for the belt. The Penn-Fitch matchup was suppose to lay out a clear cut next in line contender for the championship. But they fought to a draw according to the judges. Penn had two serious chances to finish the fight with a rear naked choke on Fitch and this is a technique Penn has used to finish five previous fights! The logical next step would be to have Penn and Fitch rematch to resolve the stalemate.

Even if Shields looses to St. Pierre, one can rationalize he should get another shot to fight for the belt because Shields only loss in over 5 years was to St. Pierre. Looking at who Shields has beaten in the last couple years, its a list of top level competition: Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Jason Miller, Dan Henderson, and a close Split Decision win over Martin Kampmann. The only other fighter in the division with such an impressive resume is Jon Fitch. The major difference is that Shields has finished two of his previous five fights while Fitch hasn't been able to finish a fight since 2007. Being a grinder does not give Fitch much leverage in the long run without a signature win over a top five talent fighter (like B.J. Penn).

So if Fitch needs to beat Penn before he gets a shot at fighting for the belt, who else is left? Well here are some names and how close (or far depending on their current streak of wins) each logically is:

Martin Kampmann: There are many people who thought Kampmann should have won that fight with Shields last year. Kampmann looked good against Shields and his only loss since moving down to Welterweight division was to Paul Daley (September 2009). Kampmann's next fight is against Diego Sanchez this week and he needs to beat Sanchez along with atleast one more top ten welterweight fighter in order to make a solid argument of him fighting for the belt.

Thiago Alves: Since November of 2005 there are only two men who have beaten Thiago Alves: George St. Pierre and Jon Fitch. Fitch has been Alves' kryptonite in the UFC and George St. Pierre finds a way to beat everyone in the UFC, so Alves' losses are nothing to be ashamed of. His next fight is in May against Rick Story. If Alves can string together about three wins in a row he should definately get another shot at the welterweight championship because he is one of the most talented Welterweights in the UFC.

Carlos Condit: Before the WEC liquidated its Welterweight Division, Carlos Condit defended the WEC Welterweight Belt three straight times and each title defense never went the distance. Condit has now won three straight fights in the UFC, including a knockout of former number one contender and Tae Kwon Do Black Belt Dan Hardy. Condit was suppose to fight Chris Lytle before he had to withdraw with a knee injury. If Condit can come back soon and get two more quality wins he should get his shot at the division title. Condit is the most underrated and overlooked fighter in the UFC Welterweight division. Before Condit was brought into the UFC he had won eight straight fights.

Josh Koscheck: Previous to being beaten by George St. Pierre's excellent jab, Koscheck had beaten three tough welterweights and he totally shut down all three of them. Koscheck also was able to stop most of St. Pierre's takedown attemps which shows how strong and technically skilled Koscheck is. He typically does not get enough credit for his excellent wrestling skills and athelticism because his "villian" reputation is what most people know him for. Koscheck will be back as soon as he recovers from the damage that St. Pierre's jab did to break his eye socket (Koscheck has also said he suffered some minor nerve damage in his face and he will not be able to run or train hard until possibly May). If Koscheck can string together another three strong wins he will be right back in title contention.

And remember, all of this analysis is conjuecture based on the "What If" of George St. Pierre beating Jake Shields in April. If Shields takes down St. Pierre then who knows what is next! St. Pierre has only lost twice in his entire MMA career and he avenged both of those losses so it is not far fetched to think a loss to Shields would drive him to come back and beat Shields to get the title back. For now, we can only wait and see what will happen April 30, 2011.