UFC 130 Aftermath

With UFC 130 in the rear view mirror, lets review what happened and what the future holds for the fighters:

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson versus Matt Hamill
Result: Jackson via Unanimous Decission
I saw from the start the focus in Jackson's eyes, something I had not seen from him since the Keith Jardine fight. He didn't just win this fight, but showed he was on another level as an MMA fighter in comparison to Matt Hamill. Rampage stuffed all of Hamill's takedowns and he threw more knees in this fight then he has used in the last several years combined.
Next For Jackson: If his hand checks out when he sees the doctor this week then he will probably fight Jon Jones next for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title. Since Rashad Evans has already commited to fighting Phil Davis at UFC 133, there needs to be someone to face Jones when he returns to action and there is a shortage of deserving opponents available to fight for the belt.
Next for Hamill: At age 34 time is running out for him to improve as an MMA fighter to have a chance to fight for the belt. Either Matt had a serious off-night in terms of his performance or he really needs to work on his striking and footwork to enable him to make the takedowns more viable. If Ryan Bader can get a win against Tito Ortiz in July then I think Hamill should be matched up up with him. If Bader loses in July then Hamill could get the winner of the Stephan Bonnar-Karlos Vermola fight.

Frank Mir versus Roy Nelson
Result: Mir by Unanimous Decission
Despite White's cynicism, Mir was impressive in his win against Nelson. Mir's striking and grappling was sharp. To top it off, he took down Nelson at will which shows that Mir is getting better as an MMA fighter, a scare thought for other UFC Heavyweights. Nelson got worn out trying to fend off Mir's attacks and by the end of the fight didn't seem like he wanted to even be in the Octagon anymore.
Next for Mir: In The last 4 years Frank Mir has only lost to two men: Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. He is still an top 10 Heavyweight MMA fighter which gives him plenty of options for his next fight. Mir could be matched up with the winner of Antonio "Minotauro" Nogeuria-Brendan Schaub or depending on the his patience and health, he could wait around until Brock Lesnar comes back from his surgery in early 2012.
Next for Nelson: Nelson has stated after the fight he needs to add more weightlifting and cardio to his training. Although its hard to take a guy seriously who brings in a guy to help him with his wrestling whose strength is Muay Thai (Dan Hardy). Losing two fights in a row does no favors for any fighter in the UFC so he needs to win his next fight to stay releavant in the UFC Heavyweight division. The winner of the Joey Beltran-Aaron Rosa fight next month would be an interesting test for Nelson.

Stefan Struve versus Travis Browne
Result: Browne via Knockout
I did not have any real expectations for this fight so I was pleasantly suprised with the action from both men. It was an interesting striking battle until Browne blasted Struve, sending the 6'11" fighter crumbling to the ground.
Next for Browne: Browne's power was on full display against Struve in this fight and he looked ready to fight from the start. It's time for him to face a fighter who is more well rounded then his last two opponents. Maybe a matchup with the winner of Matt Mitrione-Christian Morecraft fight would be a good measuring stick of his development as an MMA fighter.
Next for Struve: After being blown away by Junior Dos Santos, Roy Nelson, and now Travis Browne its fair to say Struve is basically a gatekeeper fighter who guards the divide between the elite heavyweights in the UFC and the rest of the field. Yes Struve is still young but unless he hits the weight room to add more muscle to his lanky frame and gets a stronger chin he has no other future in the UFC or MMA. Logic says his next opponent could come from the Jon Olav Einemo-Dave Herman fight.

Thiago Alves versus Rick Story
Result: Story via Unanimous Decission
An interesting but close fight resulted in Rick Story getting the biggest win of his MMA career. Alves put up a good fight and many people believe he won the third round but Story was given the first 2 rounds by the judges so Alves' 3rd roudn performance was too little too late. Story used his wrestling and aggressive striking to tame the usually forceful Alves. Even when it seemed like Alves could finish the fight against Story in the 3rd round, Alves seemed to still be a bit tenative because he was worried about being taken down.
Next for Story: Story has now rattled off six fights in a row and has shown he is ready for the next level of competition. But the young fighter is being naive and irrational to call out Jon Fitch for his next fight. Fitch has lost only once since 2003 (against UFC Welterweight Champ George St. Pierre) and Fitch is slated to be rematched against BJ Penn after their fight in February ended in a draw. But if Story really wants a step up in competition he could get Josh Koscheck next and see how he handles that challenge.
Next for Alves: Although he is only 27 years old, Alves has been around the UFC for for almost 6 years now. Losing to Story in such a close fight shows he still has some things to work on. Alves is one of the most talented 170 pound fighters in all of MMA and if he can figure out how to use all those skills the way he use to before 2009 then he will be back better then ever. A matchup with the winner of the Dan Hardy-Chris Lytle fight would give him the oppontunity to stand and bang instead of worrying about being taken down constantly.

Brian Stann versus Jorge Santiago
Result: Stann via TKO
If anyone had any doubts about Brian Stann's evolution as an MMA fighter, those doubts were put to rest Saturday night. Stann outperformed a guy in Jorge Santiago who was considered one of the top Middleweight fighters in the world. More importantly then just winning against Santiago, he finished him in the 2nd round, showing that Stann is ready for the next level at 185 pounds.
Next for Stann: Stann so far has looked unstoppable since dropping to Middleweight. His power and technique in all aspects of the MMA game is impressive. The sky is the limit for him and he could be holding the UFC Middleweight belt in just a couple years. Damian Maia and Mark Munoz are facing off at UFC 131 and the winner could be Stann's next opponent since the UFC is trying to slowly work him up the 185 pound rankings.
Next for Santiago: Santiago is one of the most talented fighters in MMA and he will come back from this loss for sure. Santiago ran into a fighter who has been unstoppable at 185 pounds and got run over. If he commits himself to training he can go on a winning tear like he did after he left the UFC in 2006. A matchup with either Dan Miller or Kendall Grove would make sense for Santiago as he is in his second go around with the UFC.

Miguel Torres versus Demetrious Johnson
Result: Johnson via unanimous decission.
One of the most (if not the most) exciting, action packed fights of the night got left in the hands of the judges. Although I scored the fight 29-28 for Torres, I understand that under the current scoring system utilized by MMA judges that a takedown is more valuable points-wise then who the more active fighter is on the ground. It was a great fight by both men and nothing should be taken away from Johnson because he put on a great fight along with Torres.
Next for Johnson: Johnson is on a solid four fight winning streak. His speed combined with his standup and takedown skills is proving to be a problem for many 135 pound fighters. If Joseph Benevidez gets past Eddie Wineland in August then a Benevidez-Johnson fight could be a number one contender fight for the UFC Bantemweight belt.
Next for Torres: Although he is only 30 years old, he has 43 Professional MMA fights in his career and he has won 39 of them. So the issue is not that Miguel Torres doesn't know how to win but he has been a bit unlucky at times in his last 5 fights. Torres is still young enough to be able to re-group to make a run at the Bantemweight title. Remember, this is a fighter who has had 20 straight and 17 straight fight winning streaks. A matchup with Japaneese MMA star Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto would be an interesting fight for both men who are at turning points in their careers.

5 things to look out for with UFC 130

Loosing the Main event/draw of Frank Edgar/Gray Maynard III matchup will hurt Pay Per View numbers for UFC 130 but overall the fight card is still solid and has a lot to offer to casual and hardcore MMA fans. Also, PPV start time is 9pm so that should entice some fans on the East Coast who dont want to be watching MMA until 12:30am when its Memorial Day weekend. Here's what you need to know about this Saturday's event:

1. Will the real Rampage and Frank Mir please stand up?
Both Jackson and Mir are at similar places in their MMA careers. They are former champions but now in their early 30's who are at crossroads in their careers. Both are 1-1 in their last two fights and have fans clamoring for more out of them. As a fan of both men, it pains me to watch Mir and Rampage fight without the aggression that they use to fight with. They both at one point were considered the top of their weight divisions because they took the fight to their opponents and always tried to finish the fight. If the Jackson and Mir of Pre-2010 comeback into the octagon Saturday then their opponents have little to no chance against them (no offense to Matt Hamill and Roy Nelson)

2. Brian Stann versus Jorge Santiago will be electric
Stann and Santiago both want the same thing: to prove they are elite Middleweight fighters who deserve to keep moving up the rankings ladder. Stann has evolved into a powerful striker who has good takedown defense and may be be the strongest middleweight in all of MMA. Santiago has evolved into an electric all-around fighter who looks to finish every fight any way he can. Santiago has been considered one of the best 185 pound MMA fighters who was not already in the UFC as he has won the Strikeforce Middleweight Tournament. He also dominated Sengoku's 185 pound division for two years. But Stann is a Marine who is fighting on Memorial Day weekend, so we know he wants to win this fight more than any fight in his MMA career. This fight is going to either be the Fight of the Night or will end in dynamic fashion.

3. Thiago Alves must face his deamons to beat Rick Story
Thiago Alves has only had two issues keeping him from being the top Welterweight in MMA: cutting weight and aggressive wrestlers. Thanks to Mike Dolce, Alves' weight cutting issues are a bad memory and he may be better then ever physically. Now he faces a fighter in Rick Story who pushes the pace of the fight and is an excellent wrestler. Alves' last two losses have been to excellent wrestlers so needs to show he can stop the takedowns and make Story fight his game. Story has not fought a welterweight who is as powerful and skilled a striker as Alves and when Thiago senses weakness in his opponent he pounces and finishes. This fight will test both fighters in some of their weaker areas.

4. Will Stefan Struve versus Travis Browne be a fight worthy of the Main card?
I have nothing personal against either Struve or Browne, but when the biggest name either guy has beaten is Paul Buentello (Struve won a Majority Decision) its hard for me to rationalize their matchup being worth of the Main Card of a PPV event. The fact that the UFC decided to put Browne-Struve on the main card ahead of more well known fighters such as Miguel Torres (former WEC Bantemweight Champ) and Kendall Grove (Winner of Season 3 Ultimate Fighter) makes me wonder if they know something MMA fans and media dont. While Struve has won his last two fights by Knockout, Browne's last fight was a Draw again Cheick Kongo in a fight that was lackluster. So this could be a very interesting fight or it may be like watching pain dry.

5. Miguel Torres wants to win, which doesn't mean he is boring
The Former WEC Bantenweight Champ is currently on a two fight winning streak but has explained in interviews he just wants to win and if the fans think he is doing so in a boring way then that is on them. This is a fighter who was on a 17 fight win streak (from 2003-2009) during which 15 of those wins were by knockout or submission. Its unfair to say that Torres is now a "boring fighter" after one fight in which his strategy was to counter punched against a fighter who is usually aggressive. Torres has good boxing skills and he can submit fighters from any position. His next opponent, Demetrious Johnson, is usually a fighter who brings the fight to the competition so Torres will have a better opportunity this Saturday to show UFC fans his skills and hopefully erase the mislabel of "boring" next to his name.

The chaos known as the UFC Welterweight Division

Thanks to the Majority Draw between B.J. Penn and Jon Fitch at UFC 127, the UFC has to honestly deal with the state of their welterweight division. The UFC has been fortunate that Champion George St. Pierre has dominated the division for close to four years and is one of the biggest superstars in all of Mixed Martial Arts. But now that St. Pierre is looking to close out his Welterweight reign (if he beats Jake Shields in April) the UFC has the potential for chaos.

UFC President Dana White has said if St. Pierre wins in April that he would move up to Middleweight and have a "Super fight" type matchup with Anderson Silva. Since I do not want to discount St. Pierre's next opponent Jake Shields (who has not lost a fight since December 2004) I will not project a victory. But lets theorize the ultimate "What If" question: What if St. Pierre beats Shields, moves up to Middleweight, and vacates the Welterweight Belt? Now What?

Looking at the Welterweight division as is now there is no clear cut next in line type of contender for the belt. The Penn-Fitch matchup was suppose to lay out a clear cut next in line contender for the championship. But they fought to a draw according to the judges. Penn had two serious chances to finish the fight with a rear naked choke on Fitch and this is a technique Penn has used to finish five previous fights! The logical next step would be to have Penn and Fitch rematch to resolve the stalemate.

Even if Shields looses to St. Pierre, one can rationalize he should get another shot to fight for the belt because Shields only loss in over 5 years was to St. Pierre. Looking at who Shields has beaten in the last couple years, its a list of top level competition: Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Jason Miller, Dan Henderson, and a close Split Decision win over Martin Kampmann. The only other fighter in the division with such an impressive resume is Jon Fitch. The major difference is that Shields has finished two of his previous five fights while Fitch hasn't been able to finish a fight since 2007. Being a grinder does not give Fitch much leverage in the long run without a signature win over a top five talent fighter (like B.J. Penn).

So if Fitch needs to beat Penn before he gets a shot at fighting for the belt, who else is left? Well here are some names and how close (or far depending on their current streak of wins) each logically is:

Martin Kampmann: There are many people who thought Kampmann should have won that fight with Shields last year. Kampmann looked good against Shields and his only loss since moving down to Welterweight division was to Paul Daley (September 2009). Kampmann's next fight is against Diego Sanchez this week and he needs to beat Sanchez along with atleast one more top ten welterweight fighter in order to make a solid argument of him fighting for the belt.

Thiago Alves: Since November of 2005 there are only two men who have beaten Thiago Alves: George St. Pierre and Jon Fitch. Fitch has been Alves' kryptonite in the UFC and George St. Pierre finds a way to beat everyone in the UFC, so Alves' losses are nothing to be ashamed of. His next fight is in May against Rick Story. If Alves can string together about three wins in a row he should definately get another shot at the welterweight championship because he is one of the most talented Welterweights in the UFC.

Carlos Condit: Before the WEC liquidated its Welterweight Division, Carlos Condit defended the WEC Welterweight Belt three straight times and each title defense never went the distance. Condit has now won three straight fights in the UFC, including a knockout of former number one contender and Tae Kwon Do Black Belt Dan Hardy. Condit was suppose to fight Chris Lytle before he had to withdraw with a knee injury. If Condit can come back soon and get two more quality wins he should get his shot at the division title. Condit is the most underrated and overlooked fighter in the UFC Welterweight division. Before Condit was brought into the UFC he had won eight straight fights.

Josh Koscheck: Previous to being beaten by George St. Pierre's excellent jab, Koscheck had beaten three tough welterweights and he totally shut down all three of them. Koscheck also was able to stop most of St. Pierre's takedown attemps which shows how strong and technically skilled Koscheck is. He typically does not get enough credit for his excellent wrestling skills and athelticism because his "villian" reputation is what most people know him for. Koscheck will be back as soon as he recovers from the damage that St. Pierre's jab did to break his eye socket (Koscheck has also said he suffered some minor nerve damage in his face and he will not be able to run or train hard until possibly May). If Koscheck can string together another three strong wins he will be right back in title contention.

And remember, all of this analysis is conjuecture based on the "What If" of George St. Pierre beating Jake Shields in April. If Shields takes down St. Pierre then who knows what is next! St. Pierre has only lost twice in his entire MMA career and he avenged both of those losses so it is not far fetched to think a loss to Shields would drive him to come back and beat Shields to get the title back. For now, we can only wait and see what will happen April 30, 2011.