The Rubik's Cube that is the UFC Rankings

When I was ten years old I asked my parents to let me take martial arts classes after I saw a Bruce Lee film and an amazing journey began for me.  My love for Martial Arts has grown over the years and led me to start watching Professional Mixed Martial Arts almost two decades ago.  I remember watching online replays of Bas Rutten Pancrase matches and Royce Grace vs Sakuraba PRIDE Superfight. I also watched the nights Vitor Belfort’s speed blitzkrieg of Wanderlei Silva and Tank Abbott, when Rich Franklin defeated Evan Tanner to become the UFC Middleweight champion, and the amazing technical war between Cung Le and Frank Shamrock in Strikeforce. 

I have been allowed the privilege, thanks to my many years in the radio industry and background in MMA, to cover several Bellator and UFC events.  I have seen the sport grow from a misunderstood “combat sport” to one of the top five highest grossing professional sports in the world.  But along the way a lot has changed, for better and for worse.  The “better” is what gets frequently publicized such as major sponsorship dollars MMA athletes have in today’s world and the mainstream acceptance of MMA.  That acceptance, thanks to fighters like Ronda Rousey, Randy Couture, and Ken Shamrock, paved the way for MMA fighters to crossover into the Television and movie industries.  The major television contracts that the UFC has with FOX, Bellator has with Viacom (Spike, CBS Sports), and World Series of Fighting with NBC Sports has put MMA on television on a weekly basis.

One common thread is that the UFC is the king of professional MMA world, where the most of the best fighters on the planet compete.  The UFC led the way in the 1990’s and helped bridge the gap to bring MMA into mainstream sports conversation.  But the UFC also has made promises to the casual and hardcore MMA fan bases that have loosely been kept.  When the UFC took over MMA organizations PRIDE, WEC, and Strikeforce, the plan was for those organizations to keep going forward and there to be crossover fights.  In each case the UFC slowly absorbed fighters into their own ranks and then dissolve the organizational structure, ending their existence. 

In 2015 the UFC is again giving something that frustrates fans and media alike, whether most of them are willing to admit it or not.  On the UFC’s website there are weight class rankings, allowing fans and media alike to have a gauge of where different fighters stand in relation to potential to championship matchups according to them.  Yet we have seen numerous times the UFC neglect their own rankings and put together fight cards headlined by title fights most people did not expect.

UFC Welterweight Champion Robbie Lawler is set to face Carlos Condit in November even though Condit has a record of 2-2 since his title fight loss to George St. Pierre in 2012.  Condit, the former WEC Welterweight Champion, is currently ranked 4^th in the UFC rankings, so he leap frogged three men for his title shot.  Meanwhile Johnny Hendricks (number one contender ranking) and Tyron Woodley (number 3 ranked Welterweight) are facing off in October at UFC 192.  Both men have previously defeated Condit while also having better overall records over the last few years.  Woodley has a 5-2 record since arriving in the UFC in 2013, with his only losses coming via judges’ decision.  Hendricks has 3-2 record over the same time period, his only losses coming via controversial split judges’ decisions.  Yet the UFC chose Carlos Condit for the title shot despite him being ranked behind Hendricks and Woodley.

Another example of mixed messages from the UFC is with the evolving conundrum of the UFC Women’s Strawweight division.  Current Women’s 115 lb. champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk is set to face Valérie Létourneau at UFC 193 in November, yet Letourneau is the number 10 ranked fighter in the division according to UFC rankings.  Letourneau is leap frogging Claudia Gadelha (number one contender in the division), Carla Esparza (former champion and number two ranked in division) and Tecia Torres (number 5 ranked fighter and undefeated in her pro career).  Both Gadehla and Esparza are out of action due to injuries so many people expected Torres would be next in line to fight for the belt.  Instead Torres is scheduled to fight Michelle Waterson next; Waterson is the former Invicta FC Atomweight Champion.  Meanwhile on her way to a title shot Letourneau has a 3-0 record in the UFC, all victories over women who are currently not ranked in the UFC’s top fifteen for the weight class.

The reality is the UFC is an organization that signed multiple big money media contracts at a time when they MMA landscape was very different.  A few years ago the UFC’s biggest stars were Jon Jones, Anderson Silva, and George St. Pierre.  Whether people were fans or haters, they tuned in every fight to watch these men either win or lose.  The UFC was also building the brand of Cain Velasquez, Frankie Edgar and Anthony Pettis after their famous championship winning fights.  In recent years since UFC signed media and sponsorship deals grossing the organization billions of dollars here’s what has happened to their stars:

-Jon Jones is currently suspended indefinitely due to his legal problems after a Hit and Run accident; he has been stripped of his title.

-Anderson Silva lost his title for Chris Weidman and since then tested positive for steroids after his fight with Nick Diaz.

-George St. Pierre retired after his controversial win over Johnny Hendricks in 2012; St. Pierre has stated he is not coming back anytime soon.

-Cain Velasquez has won, lost, won again, and lost again his Heavyweight title all while dealing with injuries.

-Frankie Edgar lost his UFC Lightweight Title in 2012 and has moved down to the Featherweight division where is working towards another title shot.

-Anthony Pettis lost his title in 2015 to Rafael Dos Anjos months after being a featured athlete on Wheaties boxes.

In 2015 the UFC is attempting to bank their marketing power around three current champions:

-Ronda Rousey, A woman who has said she will retire by 2017 and wants to spend more time pursuing an acting career.

-Chris Weidman, A talented fighter from New York whose coach is former UFC champion Matt Serra.

-Connor McGregor, A brash Irishman coming from a boxing background who just recently won the Interim UFC Featherweight title.

So with this shortened list of marque marketable fighters, why is the UFC insisting on putting together title fights that conflict with their own rankings?  The whole point of having these rankings published and updated almost weekly is to attract more fans interest in upcoming fight cards. 

One of the UFC’s biggest media deals is with Brazil’s Globo and is potentially in jeopardy due to poor TV ratings.  It does not help that three years ago there were several Brazilian UFC champions and title contenders.  In 2015 only two Brazilians hold UFC titles, one being Jose Aldo who has been dealing with injuries.  The other is Fabricio Werdum who is not even in the top five list of most popular MMA fighters in Brazil.

Certainly it is perplexing the UFC’s reasoning for many of their recent fighter matchups.  The truth is that the UFC needs the MMA fans to continue their support for the king of MMA in order to maintain financial strength and media visibility.  Their current deal with Reebok is still unpopular in many MMA circles since it cut off many sponsors from the UFC arena and some fighter’s lifelines.  There is nothing wrong with calculated risks, but only time will tell if this Rubik’s cube the UFC has placed in front of the media and fans will continue to produce results or if it will be tossed away due to the inability to be understood.

UFC 132 Aftermath

The UFC every July 4th weekend looks to put on a big show and this past weekend was no exception. Lets take a look back at Saturday night's big fights:

UFC Bantamweight Championship: Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber
Result: Cruz via Unanimous Decision
This fight was fast-paced and for all five round both guys put on a show. The difference was Faber's inability to takedown Cruz and Cruz outstriking Faber in every round.
Next for Cruz: There is some debate about who the next real number one contender is right now in the UFC 135 pound division. Demetrious Johnson is on a four fight win streak and his last fight was a action-packed win over former WEC bantamweight champ Miguel Torres. Meanwhile, Brian Bowles has won two straight fights since he lost the belt to Cruz back in early 2010. It will be interesting to see which fighter the UFC brass picks to take on Cruz next. My choice is Johnson because his overall skills along with his speed present the biggest threat to Cruz at 135 right now.
Next for Faber: Since Faber put on a good fight for five rounds typically the UFC will not drop him too far down the ladder in terms of rankings. Scott Jorgenson, another former number one contender at 135 pounds, would be an interesting fight for Faber and would keep him in the running to get another shot at the belt sooner then later.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben
Result: Leben via Knockout
Chris Leben said before this matchup that both men were going to throw until someone falls. Fortunately for Leben it was Silva who fell and Leben walked away with a KO win after nailing "The Axe Murder" with a couple hard upper cuts.
Next for Leben: "The Crippler" seems to always be in an exciting fight. He has won four of his last five fights and the last three wins have all been via stoppage. Problem for Leben is that he has been in the UFC so long he has faced many of the fighters at 185 pounds who would be considered top 15 competition. The only fighter currently on a winning streak who seems ready to face a guy like Leben would be Chris Weidman.
Next for Silva: The fact that Silva got knocked out Saturday night is not as much about him "losing his chin" but the issue that he had not faught in almost 17 months. Since he was brutally knockedout by Quinton Jackson in December of 2008 he has only had three fights and he has one win. Wanderlei may be coming to the end of his career yet I'm not sure he is ready to walk away from MMA just yet. If Yoshihiro Akiyama losses at UFC 133 then a "Axe Murderer" vs. "Sexyama" fight would make sense for both men at this stage of their careers.

Dennis Siver vs. Matt Wiman
Result: Siver via Unanimous Decision
This was the fight that I considered the most bizarre of the night. Wiman spent more time trying to takedown Siver then anything else in the fight. Siver was successful in stopping the takedowns but that didn't deter Wiman from trying still. Most people had Siver winning the 1st round and Wiman taking the 2nd round. The 3rd was about perspective since neither fighter really dominated the final round. So when you leave it up to the judges score cards, anything can happen.
Next for Siver: Siver has now won four straight fights and since January of 2009 he is 7-1 in the UFC. His all-round MMA game has improved while his opponents are running out of ways to beat him. A fight with either Anthony Pettis or Gleison Tibau would be an interesting test for Siver.
Next for Wiman: Wiman clearly thought he had won the fight on Saturday night and went as far as throwing his hat down and storming out of the octagon after the judges decision was announced. Three of Wiman's four UFC losses have been by decision so one would think he would understand the conscequences of not finishing a fight. Either way, Wiman's winning streak is gone and has to take a step back in the crowded UFC lightweight division ranks. A fight with another guy who lost on the UFC 132 card would be right for Wiman right now: Shane Roller.

Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader
Result: Ortiz via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Supposedly Ryan Bader was a 8-1 favorite in his matchup with Tito Ortiz. Ortiz had lost three straight fights and the "experts" thought that Ortiz was done. But people forget Tito is a former UFC champion and Saturday night he showed that he is not ready to retire anytime soon. He looked better then Bader in the striking department and after Ortiz nailed Bader with a straight right the former champ jumped on his favored opponent and sunk in a deep choke to finish the fight.
Next for Ortiz: A big win like this for Ortiz gives him many options for his next matchup. Tito has said in the past he likes to take on top level competition yet most of that competition in the UFC at 205 pounds is booked over the next few UFC events. Maybe he could get the loser of Evans-Davis, Franklin-Nogueria, or Griffin-Rua. Or maybe someone from Strikeforce will get their contract re-written like Nick Diaz did and come over to have their first fight of the new UFC contract against Tito Ortiz (who knows).
Next for Bader: Before 2011 Ryan Bader had never lost a fight in his MMA career. Now he has lost to the current UFC Light Heavyweight Champ (Jon Jones) and a former UFC champion (Tito Ortiz). Bader went from being top 10 at 205 in the UFC to middle of the pack. Maybe its time to match him up Krzysztof Soszynski to see if Bader can get back on track against someone who has won three of his last five fights.

Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Result: Condit via Knockout (Flying Knee)
After his win over Nate Diaz, Dong Hyun Kim called out UFC Welterweight Champion George St. Pierre. Instead he got to face the former WEC Welterweight Champ Carlos Condit. Kim said before the fight that Condit was "overrated" and that when he wins he wanted next shot at GSP. After a fast first round knockout, I think Kim just got knocked back to reality.
Next for Condit: After two close Split Decisions to start his UFC career, Condit has reeled off three straight wins in which he finished his opponents. People seem to forget that Condit defended the WEC Welterweight belt three times and while in the WEC he stopped all of his opponents either by submission or knockout. While Condit has a case to be next in line for a shot at the belt, it is unlikely he will sit around and wait until the winner of St. Pierre-Diaz is ready to fight again. If Diego Sanchez beats Matt Hughes in September then a Condit-Sanchez fight would make sense for Condit if he doesn't want to wait around for a title shot.
Next for Kim: The loss to Condit is the first official loss of Kim's MMA career. Often criticed for his style of taking guys down but not doing much else while in a dominant position, Kim still has some evolving to do if he intends on making a run to become a number one contender in the UFC. Maybe a fight with someone who is hard to takedown (like Josh Koscheck) would force him to learn some other techniques aside from same old he has been using lately.

Quick thoughts on some Preliminary Card Fights

Melvin Guillard vs. Shane Roller: With his knockout of Shane Roller, Guillard has now won five straight fights and gotten his hand raised in eight of his last nine fights. Guillard is quickly setting himself apart from the rest of the 155 pount division. Guillard has said in the past that he wants to fight Jim Miller, yet Miller is booked to fight in August against Ben Henderson. Guillard also said Saturday night he wants to fight at the UFC 136 event in Houston. There are only two guys high in the lightweight ranks in the UFC who would be available to fight in October: Clay Guida (who is a teammate of Guillard's at Jackson MMA) and former UFC Lightweight Champ Sean Sherk (who has stated on Twitter he would like to come back to the UFC this fall after recovering from injury issues).

George Sotiropoulos vs. Rafael dos Anjos: Before 2011, George Sotiropoulos was the winner of nine straight fights and was considered to be in the mix as a contender at 155 pounds. Now after two straight losses George has lost all mommentum and all of the praise about his "great boxing skills" evaporated with a wild first round KO at the hands of Dos Anjos. Ironically, its the first knockout victory of Dos Anjos' career.

The chaos known as the UFC Welterweight Division

Thanks to the Majority Draw between B.J. Penn and Jon Fitch at UFC 127, the UFC has to honestly deal with the state of their welterweight division. The UFC has been fortunate that Champion George St. Pierre has dominated the division for close to four years and is one of the biggest superstars in all of Mixed Martial Arts. But now that St. Pierre is looking to close out his Welterweight reign (if he beats Jake Shields in April) the UFC has the potential for chaos.

UFC President Dana White has said if St. Pierre wins in April that he would move up to Middleweight and have a "Super fight" type matchup with Anderson Silva. Since I do not want to discount St. Pierre's next opponent Jake Shields (who has not lost a fight since December 2004) I will not project a victory. But lets theorize the ultimate "What If" question: What if St. Pierre beats Shields, moves up to Middleweight, and vacates the Welterweight Belt? Now What?

Looking at the Welterweight division as is now there is no clear cut next in line type of contender for the belt. The Penn-Fitch matchup was suppose to lay out a clear cut next in line contender for the championship. But they fought to a draw according to the judges. Penn had two serious chances to finish the fight with a rear naked choke on Fitch and this is a technique Penn has used to finish five previous fights! The logical next step would be to have Penn and Fitch rematch to resolve the stalemate.

Even if Shields looses to St. Pierre, one can rationalize he should get another shot to fight for the belt because Shields only loss in over 5 years was to St. Pierre. Looking at who Shields has beaten in the last couple years, its a list of top level competition: Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Jason Miller, Dan Henderson, and a close Split Decision win over Martin Kampmann. The only other fighter in the division with such an impressive resume is Jon Fitch. The major difference is that Shields has finished two of his previous five fights while Fitch hasn't been able to finish a fight since 2007. Being a grinder does not give Fitch much leverage in the long run without a signature win over a top five talent fighter (like B.J. Penn).

So if Fitch needs to beat Penn before he gets a shot at fighting for the belt, who else is left? Well here are some names and how close (or far depending on their current streak of wins) each logically is:

Martin Kampmann: There are many people who thought Kampmann should have won that fight with Shields last year. Kampmann looked good against Shields and his only loss since moving down to Welterweight division was to Paul Daley (September 2009). Kampmann's next fight is against Diego Sanchez this week and he needs to beat Sanchez along with atleast one more top ten welterweight fighter in order to make a solid argument of him fighting for the belt.

Thiago Alves: Since November of 2005 there are only two men who have beaten Thiago Alves: George St. Pierre and Jon Fitch. Fitch has been Alves' kryptonite in the UFC and George St. Pierre finds a way to beat everyone in the UFC, so Alves' losses are nothing to be ashamed of. His next fight is in May against Rick Story. If Alves can string together about three wins in a row he should definately get another shot at the welterweight championship because he is one of the most talented Welterweights in the UFC.

Carlos Condit: Before the WEC liquidated its Welterweight Division, Carlos Condit defended the WEC Welterweight Belt three straight times and each title defense never went the distance. Condit has now won three straight fights in the UFC, including a knockout of former number one contender and Tae Kwon Do Black Belt Dan Hardy. Condit was suppose to fight Chris Lytle before he had to withdraw with a knee injury. If Condit can come back soon and get two more quality wins he should get his shot at the division title. Condit is the most underrated and overlooked fighter in the UFC Welterweight division. Before Condit was brought into the UFC he had won eight straight fights.

Josh Koscheck: Previous to being beaten by George St. Pierre's excellent jab, Koscheck had beaten three tough welterweights and he totally shut down all three of them. Koscheck also was able to stop most of St. Pierre's takedown attemps which shows how strong and technically skilled Koscheck is. He typically does not get enough credit for his excellent wrestling skills and athelticism because his "villian" reputation is what most people know him for. Koscheck will be back as soon as he recovers from the damage that St. Pierre's jab did to break his eye socket (Koscheck has also said he suffered some minor nerve damage in his face and he will not be able to run or train hard until possibly May). If Koscheck can string together another three strong wins he will be right back in title contention.

And remember, all of this analysis is conjuecture based on the "What If" of George St. Pierre beating Jake Shields in April. If Shields takes down St. Pierre then who knows what is next! St. Pierre has only lost twice in his entire MMA career and he avenged both of those losses so it is not far fetched to think a loss to Shields would drive him to come back and beat Shields to get the title back. For now, we can only wait and see what will happen April 30, 2011.