Diagnosis and Solution for Nine NFL teams 0-2 after Week Two

After Week Two of the 2015 NFL season there are nine teams off to a 0-2 start. Many of these teams had pre-season expectations to make the playoffs. So what went wrong between August 1^st and September 22^nd? Reality hit that being “good on paper” does not equal success on the football field.

So I am going to look at each of these 0-2 teams like a doctor: analyze the symptoms, diagnose the problem, and give a solution/prescription to turn things around.  So let’s get started:

Baltimore Ravens

Symptoms: The Ravens have been playing inconsistent each of the first two weeks.  In week one they limit the Broncos offense and future Hall of Fame Quarterback Peyton Manning to under 20 points then the next week the defense allows 37 points from a Raiders team full of young players. As a team they rank in the lower half of the league in almost every offensive statistical category.

Diagnosis: Injuries at key positions are hurting the Ravens. All-Pro Linebacker Terrell Suggs is out for the season, Pro Bowl Tight End Dennis Pitta is on the Physically Unable to Perform list, starting Offensive Tackle Eugene Monroe is out with a concussion, and rookie Wide Receiver Breshard Perriman is recovering from a knee injury. As a result, the team has been playing guys at these positions who are not at the same level of skill as the injured starters.

Solution: The Ravens do not have a plethora of high skilled players starting at every position. They cannot get away with being the most talented team on the field each week. This team needs to get back to what has served them well in the past, which is being physical on both sides of the ball. If they can physically impose their will on opponents they can win ball games. Neither of their first two losses were blowouts, both games came down to final possessions, so they must execute better in crunch time.

But having to “turn on a switch” and play a certain way at the end of games is a lot harder when the team hasn’t been playing well throughout the game. Starting in the 1^st quarter of each game the team needs to impose their will and game plan on their opponents then carry that momentum throughout the rest of the game.

Houston Texans

Symptoms: On paper the Houston Texans are one of the most talented defenses in the NFL. Yet they have allowed their first two opponents this season to score 24 points and 27 points in consecutive weeks. This is facing offenses with limited offensive skill players so it would be assumed that a team as talented as the Texans should be able to slow opponents down. Also, Texans have started two different Quarterbacks in both of their games this season.

Diagnosis: The problem is execution. There is no reason why a defense like this should allow a talented Tight End such as Travis Kelce to be so wide open and be able to score two receiving touchdowns. There is no reason why Panthers Quarterback Cam Newton should not be under pressure when he is the most dangerous player on the opposing offense. Also, after the first two weeks the Texans passing offense is top 12 in the NFL in passing yards per game and has 28 first downs on passing plays. Yet they are only averaging 18.5 points per game and their 3^rd down conversion rate is a lowly 24 percent.

Solution: The defense needs to stop leaning on All-Pro Defensive lineman JJ Watt. Yes, he is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, but one man cannot do everything. Football is a team game and the other players on the Texans defense need to step up and handle their assignments on every play. On offense, this team needs to balance their attack. They are running double the passing plays versus running plays; they need to be more committed to the running game and not leave so much pressure on the passing attack to convert on 3^rd downs to keep drives going.

Indianapolis Colts

Symptoms: The Colts have been outscored on the season 47-21 versus teams who when you combine their rosters only have two players on offense who have been Pro Bowl selections. Neither Quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor nor Ryan Fitzpatrick are overly difficult to game plan against. Also the Colts offense is bottom in the NFL ranks in turnovers in 2015.

Diagnosis: The Colts offensive and defensive lines have played poorly in their first two games. Neither side of the ball is gaining leverage against the opposition and these guys are being pushed around almost every play. I do not care how great Quarterback Andrew Luck is, or how talented his receivers are. If the offensive line does not hold their blocking assignments, this offense will keep looking putrid. On the flip side, the defensive front is not getting consistent pressure on the opposing offense, leaving the back end of the defense to be taken advantage of from down to down. Opposing offenses are averaging 343 total yards of offense versus Colts in 2015.

Solution: The offensive and defensive lineman need to do their jobs better or this team will continue to flounder. The men in the trenches are the foundation of success for any winning franchise. It doesn’t matter how talented the Quarterback and Wide Receivers are on paper. Poor execution leads to opponents having the upper hand and then the team starts pressing because they are behind on the score board. The Colts need to get back to the fundamentals of football. They signed Running Back Frank Gore for a reason and I am sure it wasn’t to just block for Andrew Luck.  They need to stop being afraid to attack on defense, especially when you have guys like Trent Cole and Robert Mathis on the roster. The Colts have to impose their game plan on opponents in order to win games. This finesse style of game play the last two weeks certainly isn’t working.

New York Giants

Symptoms: For two straight weeks the Giants have held the lead in games in the 4^th quarter, mismanaged their offense, then allowed opponents to get the ball back on offense at end of the game and score touchdowns. The Giants are outscoring teams 37-23 through first 3 quarters; in the 4^th quarter opponents are outscoring the Giants 28-10!

Diagnosis: The Giants are not finishing games with the right attitude. Instead of playing the way they did the first 3 quarters all the way until the end, in the 4^th quarter, they are playing overly conservative in effort to “maintain the lead” and “not make mistakes”.  A problem in sports is whenever a team or player is worried about making a mistake, those problems manifest themselves during the game and then the worry becomes the nightmare facing them.

Solution: The Giants need to stop letting up on the gas pedal when entering the 4^th quarter. They need to be in attack mode all game long, not just 75 percent of the game.  They need to treat the scoreboard like no lead is safe and they have to keep attacking opponents on offense while allowing their defense to continue being aggressive until the final seconds go off the clock. They can lay back when the game is over, not in the fourth quarter.

Philadelphia Eagles

Symptoms: The Eagles offense is averaging only 17 points per game and statistically have the worst rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 35 rushing yards per game.  Meanwhile opponents are averaging 377 total yards per game and the Eagles defense pressure on the opposing Quarterback is so bad they have only one sack in 2015.

Diagnosis: The Eagles are not just playing poorly, but are misusing players on both sides of the ball. Running Back Demarco Murray is a “North-South” power runner who is great running between the tackles. The Eagles keep trying to run him on stretch plays and hand offs out of shotgun. Byron Maxwell did his best work as a Cornerback in Seattle playing a specific side of the field, not matched up on the opponent’s top receiver all game long. While Wide Receiver Jordan Matthews does his best work on slants and deep comeback pattern passing plays, the Eagles keep running him on deep outs and crossing pick passing plays. Linebacker Connor Barwin is great at blitzing the Quarterback on 3^rd down and stopping running plays and screen plays as a power player. Eagles keep sending him into coverage on multiple downs.

Solution: The Eagles coaches need to utilize their players based on their skill sets instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. If Chip Kelly is as great a football mind as people claim, he will know how to customize his game plans based around his player’s strengths instead of asking them to run plays they are outside of their comfort zones. Allow the talent on this roster to do what they are best at, then you will have a chance to win ball games.

Detroit Lions

Symptoms: The Lions are in the bottom half of the league in points per game, rush yards per game, total yards per game and 3^rd down conversation percentage. Their offense has been inconsistent despite all the talent they have on the roster.  Also, opponents are averaging 29.5 points per game versus the Lions.

Diagnosis: The Lions have built their team around the Pro Bowl Quarterback Matthew Stafford with talented players such as Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, and Amir Abdullah. But the offensive play calling has been unbalanced. The running game has been so rough that the team’s second leading rusher so far this season is their Quarterback Stafford. Which highlights the other issue. The offensive line is not getting enough leverage at the snap of the ball, allowing opposing defenses to dictate pace and limiting the offense’s ability to execute efficiently.

Solution: The Lions must do a better job at putting the Quarterback in a position to be successful or they will continue to lose games. This team’s defense is built to play when their offense is ahead so they can attack the opponent’s offense. They are not built to play from behind so they need to not start slow as they have the last two weeks. They need to get leads early and execute on offense, giving them a chance to finish the game strong instead of fighting from behind and hope for the best.

Chicago Bears

Symptoms: The Bears offense is not the problem as they average 23 points per game and statistically one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL. The problem is their defense, as their opponents have score 11 touchdowns in just the first two weeks of this season. The defense has registered zero sacks and their only interception is by one of their pass rushers, Jared Allen.

Diagnosis: Ever since the team fired former Head Coach Lovie Smith a few years ago, the defense has played below average despite the personnel on their roster. When your defense is unable to stop opponents then the offense is put in the dubious position of having to play catch up. Being without starting Quarterback Jay Cutler for a few weeks will further inhibit the team’s ability to keep up in games their defense can’t slow down opponents.

Solution: Talented veterans such as Jared Allen, Antrel Rolle, Lamarr Houston, and Shea McClellin need to take command of the situation and lead this team to play better.  These guys know what it takes to be successful in the NFL and without them this team will finish dead last in the division. The Bears do not have the offensive firepower to win only with their offense. The defense must step up, play up to their potential, and keep opponents from averaging 39.5 point per game against them. They need to shave at least 10 points off that average to allow their offense to have a chance to win games for them.

New Orleans Saints

Symptoms: Despite having a future Hall of Famer at Quarterback in Drew Brees, the Saints are averaging 19 points per game and their offensive line has allowed their Quarterback to be sacked six times. Meanwhile, despite having “defensive guru” Rob Ryan as Defensive Coordinator, the Saints are allowing opponents an average of 380 total yards per game.

Diagnosis: The Saints offensive and defensive lines are under performing in 2015.  Despite the big trade to bring in Pro Bowl Center Max Unger in the offseason, the line has been unable to keep defenders off their Quarterback consistently. Also the line is not gaining the leverage needed at the snap to allow any consistency play from the running game. On the flip side, the defense is getting almost no pressure on opposing Quarterbacks and the secondary is playing sloppy in coverage.

Solution: The Saints need to pick up their overall play in the trenches. They cannot expect to win games if they are getting manhandled after the snap of the football on each play. Drew Brees reportedly has a bruised rotator cuff, thanks to his offensive line doing a poor job of protecting him. The defense needs to get more pressure on opposing Quarterbacks in order to make life more difficult for offenses they face. The coaches Sean Payton and Rob Ryan need to see what they can do to shake up their game plan schemes so they appear less predictable week to week.

Seattle Seahawks

Symptoms: The Seahawks are allowing 30.5 points per game to be scored on them, the highest number in the last 5 seasons. They have only gotten sacks on opposing Quarterbacks 4 times and registered zero interceptions. Meanwhile Seattle has allowed their own starting Quarterback Russell Wilson to be sacked by opponents eight times and their offense is in the bottom half of the league statistically in categories such as total yards per game, passing yards, and total points scored.

Diagnosis: This is not a team right now. Too many players are going onto the field not for the team but playing for themselves and to impress to get contracts. Safety Kam Chancellor has been sitting out, refusing to play, because he wants a pay raise after getting a new contract two years ago. This type of attitude is seemingly permeating the rest of the roster as too many guys on both sides of the ball are playing as individuals instead of executing as a unit. With players such as Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and Cliff Avrill, there is no reason why they should be allowing opponents to score as many points per game.

Solution: Protect your Quarterback and get to the other team’s Quarterback. Seattle Seahawks, the solution is simple.  Stop worrying about the next contact or what the guy next to you is doing or when Kam Chancellor is coming back. Step up, do your job, support your current teammates. Don’t worry about who is no longer on the team because they went elsewhere and got paid. Also, you acquired one of the top offensive weapons in the NFL, Tight End Jimmy Graham. Get him more involved in the offense.  Graham led the Saints in targets on passing plays three of the last four seasons in New Orleans and despite the fact everyone knew the Saints were throwing it to him, he still put up huge statistics every year. There is no reason why he can’t do the same in Seattle.

The Real Difference between Philadelphia Eagles & Dallas Cowboys

We have all heard the phrase “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it”.  Well on the flip side, how about the phrase “If we do not learn from history then we are doomed to repeat it”?  Week Two of the NFL season embodied those phrases in the matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.  Two long standing rivals whose organizations are in very different situations.

The Cowboys let their Pro Bowl Running Back, Demarco Murray, leave after leading the NFL in Rushing Yards.  People scoffed at them when the team put their faith in young Joseph Randle and oft-injured veteran Darren McFadden to carry the load of the running game in Murray’s absence. Also, the Cowboys have Lance Dunbar as their third down situation back. The Cowboys took this leap of faith because they have seen this story before and have spent the last few years building one of the top offensive lines in the NFL through the draft. Tyron Smith, Zack Miller, and Travis Frederick were all drafted when the so called “experts” said the Cowboys had other options to pick in the first round of the NFL Draft each year.

The Cowboys invested in depth by picking up the discarded former first round pick Brandon Weeden to be their backup Quarterback. Before Weeden got to Dallas his career statistics were 55 percent completion percentage with a 26 interceptions thrown in two seasons with the Cleveland Browns. In six games playing Quarterback for the Cowboys, Weeden has a 79 percent completion percentage with four touchdowns and only two interceptions.

This is the same Cowboys organization that invested resources into the offensive line and the backup Quarterback during the run of success in the 1990’s.  Those teams had Steve Beuerlein and Bernie Kosar as backups in case anything happened to their future Hall of Fame Quarterback Troy Aikman. Also the tactical moves by Head Coach Jimmy Johnson to build an offensive line with Pro Bowl selections Larry Allen, Erik Williams, and Nate Newton. Replicating the past with unheralded personnel moves such as these have put the Cowboys in a position as leaders in the NFC East with a 2-0 record to start the season.

On the other side of the field Sunday you have the Philadelphia Eagles who for the second straight week played underwhelming on both sides of the ball. The Eagles came into the season with high expectations after an offseason in which they overhauled the roster. The Eagles dished out 104 million dollars worth of contracts to Byron Maxwell, Demarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Over the last couple years they sent packing Pro Bowlers Desean Jackson, Lesean McCoy, and Evan Mathis in what 20-20 hindsight says was all about Head Coach Chip Kelly not wanting certain types of personalities on his team. Kelly also traded away Quarterback Nick Foles to the St. Louis Rams for former Heisman Trophy winner and 1st round draft pick Sam Bradford to be the Eagles new starting Quarterback.

Despite all the money spent and numerous personnel moves, the Eagles have played below average for the first two weeks of the 2015 NFL season. The Eagles roster looks good on paper, but so did that 2011 Philadelphia Eagles “Dream Team” (as nicknamed by then backup Quarterback Vince Young) that had Pro Bowl offseason acquisitions Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins, and Jason Babin to bolster the defense.  This was to match with an offense led by Quarterback Michael Vick who re-signed that offseason with the Eagles a contract that was 40 million dollars guaranteed. Tens of millions of dollars spent to build a winning team that finished the season 8-8.

The reality is that the splashy and headline grabbing offseason moves don’t win football games. The Washington Redskins, Oakland Raiders, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins are franchises that have won Super Bowls decades ago but did not learn from the past.  Instead these franchises have spent the last 25 years making the multi-million big free agent signings, splashy Head Coach hires, and trades for big name players.  But none of those moves have helped these teams win a Super Bowl.  In fact, only one of those franchises (the 2002 Oakland Raiders) has even reached the Super Bowl.

On the other hand, franchises such as the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, and New York Giants have put together teams that have not only reached the big game multiple times, but have won the Super Bowl multiple times over the last 20 years. These organizations have built their teams through calculated offseason signings that better the team while using the draft to build a team not just find a star. When these organizations do make mistakes, they do what is necessary to correct course, whether that be fire a Head Coach or unload a player via release or trade.  No one gets every move right, but it’s the smart organizations that learn from their mistakes and move forward to better the team for the current season and the future.

Since Chip Kelly became the Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach he has not been building a team. Instead he has been treating players like interchangeable parts to see if they fit in his system. He uses the draft to select players he thinks can fit his game plan instead of properly weighing the skill sets of these young men. When he drafted Linebacker Marcus Smith, Cornerback Jaylen Watkins and Quarterback Matt Barkley it was never to truly develop these players but instead to plug them into his system based on how he saw their potential fit. In 2015 neither Watkins nor Barkley are on the team anymore while Smith is buried on the depth chart.

Kelly has let go of players such as Wide Receiver Jeremy Maclin, Cornerback Brandon Boykin, Running Back Lesean McCoy, along with offensive lineman Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans because he claims these players did not fit “his” system. Interesting how these players are all playing for new teams in 2015 and they “fit” into other teams who have playoff aspirations.

The Eagles made a splashy move by bringing Kelly in to run their team but Kelly also has brought the wrong mentality with him. College Football has similarities to the Pro game but there is one major difference: while in college you recruit players to plug and play into your system, in the NFL you have to build a team and modify your system for the talent you have on the roster. The Cowboys after spending the first half of the 2000’s learning the hard way, have gone back to the 1990’s Jimmy Johnson model and have built a team. Free agent acquisitions are meant to add a player with a needed skill set to a team, not use signings and trades to build a roster.  We can see what works in New England, Green Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, yet the Philadelphia Eagles insist on re-inventing the wheel.

This is the second straight Eagles Head Coach who is an “offensive guru” who has come to “change the culture”. The media buys into the story line while overlooking the facts. Both Chip Kelly and Andy Reid were in their previous jobs for short periods of time. Both men had never been NFL Head Coaches or Coordinators. Neither Kelly nor Reid had spent time working with salary cap restrictions but were asked to be major decision makers in building NFL rosters. Andy Reid and Chip Kelly had limited experience hiring coaches to work under them (In Oregon Kelly inherited most of his staff from retiring Head Coach Mark Bellotti).

So again, I re-state my opening points, “If it’s not broken, don’t fix it”, and, “If we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it.”  No matter how much we debate the merits of team’s offseason activities, it still comes down to winning on the field each week in the NFL.  It’s looking like a long season for the Philadelphia Eagles and a season still ripe with potential for success for the Dallas Cowboys.

The Rise and Fall of Professional Boxing

Reports have come out that the recent Floyd Mayweather-Andre Berto Pay-Per-View fight card only generated between 400,000 and 550,000 buys and the crowd at the MGM was well short of sellout capacity. In the end, the overall event did not net a major financial profit despite this supposedly being the “Money Mayweather” final fight. Despite all the hype from Showtime and other media outlets, the collective sports world did not put their money up to see Floyd Mayweather dance in circles and play his counter-striking game one last time.

Whether you are a fan or hater of Mayweather, there is a reason he has the nickname “Money” because he has been very profitable for himself and his promoters for over a decade. Despite the 49-0 fight record, the truth is that it does not stack up against the likes of Mohammed Ali, Rocky Marciano, “Sugar” Ray Leonard and “Sugar” Ray Robinson. Furthermore Mayweather’s career is arguably a weak overall resume compared to contemporaries Andre Ward and Oscar De La Hoya in the fact that Floyd never won an Olympic Gold medal. Over the last 55 years all the great boxers from Ali to Joe Frazier to Leonard won Olympic Gold medals. Mayweather supporters would say he was “robbed” at the 1996 Olympics but most of Floyd’s life has been mired in controversy. From the domestic assault charges and convictions to being stripped of his WBO championship title to him hand picking fights with guys who are “past their prime”; some people say Floyd Mayweather has done more hurt the reputation of Professional Boxing than any other fighter.

But I contend Mayweather is just a bi-product of what big time Professional Boxing has become: A convoluted mess. From the alphabet soup of organizations to corrupt promotors to judging controversies, Boxing over the last 30 years has fallen from its pedestal as one of the premiere sporting events. Even the skills of Olympic Boxing competitors has dropped off during the last few Olympics. Let us also not forget that according to the online Journal of Combative Sport 2007 research since 1960 over 667 deaths directly resulting from boxing related injuries in the USA alone. The sport known as “The Sweet Science” sure has left a sour taste for many over the years.

Still, millions of dollars are made every year off a sport whose fighters lack the refined skill of years ago. Men such as Jack Johnson, Joe Louis, Ali, Frazier and Leonard were considered among the greatest athletes of their generations. In today’s world the greatest athletes are training to be the best in other sports. You see phenomenal athletes playing sports such as Football that would have been found fighting in the ring 30 years ago. That is because boxing was considered a way out for those who came from working class or poor economic backgrounds. These men would channel their anger and rage against the world into hours at the gym in order to exact that violence on another man to make the money they couldn’t get working at the factories and warehouses across America. In today’s world many great athletes who come from the same backgrounds look to the NFL and NBA to raise themselves and their families out of poverty.

Also the rise of Mixed Martial Arts has drawn men who would have gone to the boxing gym into the local kickboxing club or convinced young kids to wrestle in High School and College. Anyone who has watched MMA champions such as Cain Velasquez, Jon Jones, Nick Diaz, and Connor McGregor know that they have the natural skills needed to potentially be championship Boxers. Instead Jones and Velasquez were amateur wrestlers; Diaz trained in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu since his mid-teens; McGregor has formal boxing training but found professional MMA more appealing so he later trained in Kickboxing, Taekwondo, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Furthermore, MMA is overall a less brutal violence sport than Boxing. Many MMA fights are ended via submission or Technical Knockout via referee stoppage. Even though MMA is a fairly young organized compared to Boxing, we have not seen older or retired MMA fighters suffering from the same psychological and money issues as retired boxers. In fact, there has been only one Professional MMA injuries related death and that was because that organization did not have their fights or fighters sanctioned and overseen by a reputable Athletic Commission. After that incident, that commissioner was removed and there was an overhaul in that state’s MMA regulations.

But still Professional Boxing generates hundreds of millions of dollars every year while MMA grosses out only a quarter of the amount only thanks to television contracts.  Boxing has been making a dent into the television market but many of the cable television fight cards are relegated to average TV slots or they are stuck going head to head with more popular sporting events like the NFL or College Football. The UFC, who is the king of Professional MMA, has a multi-year TV deals with three different media companies internationally and those deals total around a billion dollars. MMA has not been able to draw the casual or hardcore boxing fans mostly because these people do not find the submission and grappling aspects of MMA appealing.

The truth is that the casual boxing fan tunes in for the excitement or violence of the sport.  Similarly to the people who watch sports because they have money invested, these watchers do not appreciate the game or skill involved, they want their money’s worth whether that is made off winning a prop bet or seeing the explosive entertainment they expected. The reality is that most of the people who watched the Floyd Mayweather fight just wanted to see him win or lose and cared less about the rest of the fights on the docket that night.

If Floyd Mayweather is truly done with boxing, it will be a blessing and a curse for the sport. While he made many promoters and opponents money, he also lost many people money and cast a dark shadow over the sport. Mayweather was a counter-striker with great speed who outside the ring had numerous domestic violence charges who promoters and the media turned him into a money making villain. Gone are the days of Bernard Hopkins, Roy Jones Jr., Oscar De la Hoya, and Mickey Ward giving the fans an event to tune in for; without Mayweather, Boxing potentially sees their last cash cow walk away.

The future does not look very promising for the professional ranks of “The Sweet Science” with the numerous other sports options out there for people to take interest in and spend their money on. The mainstream sports media has Football, Basketball and Baseball deals that produce money and drive ratings.  Also media corporations such Fox Sports, NBC Sports and Viacom have invested a lot of money into the UFC, World Series of Fighting, and Bellator MMA already, so you know those events will get publicity and marketing dollars. NASCAR is another sport growing in popularity, getting big advertising dollars and TV contracts. Let’s not forget that the NHL and college sports conferences like the Big Ten, PAC 12 and SEC now have their own television networks. 

The market share for Boxing is shrinking with the all the other options out there and most people have no idea who Gennady Golovkin or Roman Gonzalez are, yet both men are undefeated champions. How can Boxing keep the money train going without the recognizable names to sell tickets and PPVs to fans? How will they keep the financial commitments from media outlets and advertisers? The clock is certainly ticking on that conundrum.  

New NFL Head Coaches and Their Unexpected Success

Every offseason, no matter the team sport, there are coaches fired and new ones hired.  The hope of these franchises is that these new leaders can put the team in a position to win games and be a successful organization on and off the field. But success is not always an automatic result with a new Head Coach. Some coaches are not right organizational or roster fit while others are not best prepared for the role they are undertaking.

During Week One of the 2015 NFL regular season we saw three new Head Coaches get wins in their first game who many expected to lose opening week. These men are looking to bring change in their new organizations and a winning culture back to franchises whose fan bases who feel like playoff success is a distant memory. Ironically, in an age of high powered offenses, all three of these head coaches come from defensive backgrounds.  I am speaking of Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn.  Let us dig a little deeper into each situation.

-Rex Ryan, Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have not been to the playoffs in over 15 years, since Doug Flutie had his career resurrected in northern New York.  The Bills have shuffled through multiple Quarterbacks and Head Coaches; they have been on the short end of multiple poor roster moves and draft choices for years. The Bills needed a head coach who was more than just a good qualified candidate. They needed a man who could change the culture in Buffalo.  In hiring Rex Ryan, the Bills gained a Head Coach who changed the attitudes and expectations of another franchise, a coach who has shown consistency as a defensive coach with great defenses.

In week one the Buffalo Bills won a game against a team led by one of the top five Quarterbacks in the NFL. They did not just win their game versus Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Bills executed well in all facets of offense and defense. With starting Quarterback Tyrod Taylor the Bills offense displayed a solid balance between running and passing attacks as Taylor was composed, leading the team on productive possessions over and over again.  On the defensive side, the team kept frustrating the Colts offense, putting them in difficult situations while pressuring the Quarterback multiple times.

The Bills have the opportunity to build on their week one success as they head into another tough matchup versus the Patriots. The positive is that it is another game being playing at home so they will have the crowd behind them.  Rex Ryan has captained teams to the playoffs before and this Bills team may be the most talented offense he has ever worked with.  As a defensive minded coach, Ryan takes the most pride in his defenses so we can expect the Bills to continue to execute each week and frustrate many offenses.

-Dan Quinn, Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons

Some people were surprised when Dan Quinn got the job with the Atlanta Falcons.  Not because he wasn’t a qualified or good candidate, but other “big names” were considered for the job. According to reports, Quinn was the Falcons number one choice because of the organization he was coming from. Quinn has spent four of the last six seasons on the Seattle Seahawks coaching staff, a franchise that has played in two straight Super Bowls and been a consistent winner for the last few years.

The Falcons have experienced sporadic success over the last 18 years with three trips to the NFC Championship game and a Super Bowl appearance. But this playoff success has not been consistent under the leadership of any previous head coaches. The Falcons win over the Philadelphia Eagles in week one of the season displayed something that has been missing from Atlanta for years: a defense that executes consistently.  With Quarterback Matt Ryan no one denies the Falcons ability to put up points offensively from week to week; it is the defense that has been left with the big question mark hanging over it. Slowing down a potent Eagles offense was a big step forward for the Falcons.

Maintaining playoff success is always predicated on a team’s ability to execute on both offense and defense. If the Falcons can maintain their level of play and even improve it as the season goes along, they could be playoff bound.  Dan Quinn knows what it takes for a team to be a successful franchise and he is incorporating that down in Atlanta.

-Todd Bowles, Head Coach of the New York Jets

This will be the fourth straight head coach the New York Jets have hired with a defensive background. Each coach has come with different strengths to the Jets, but Todd Bowles is different in the fact he already has some head coaching experience.

Todd has served as an interim Head Coach on two different occasions so he is familiar with the management responsibilities of the job.  In the Jets week one win, their defense was very good and the offense ran the ball efficiently. Some may say that has nothing to do with Bowles since these are “Rex Ryan’s players” and the Cleveland Browns were without their starting Quarterback for most of the game.

The truth is that Todd Bowles has changed the attitude of the Jets on and off the field.  Bowles has gotten both veterans and young players to buy into the team concept.  Under previous head coaches the team was coached by disciplinarians or coaches players liked so much they wanted to hang out with “the boss”. Todd does a great job of balancing between structure and discipline along with creating a positive environment and locker room players want to be in.

Having the right attitude for a team is more than just one or two aspects; it is more than just chemistry, coaching style, and organizational structure.  Success is bred from example and the one who sets that example is the leader. In the NFL the Head Coach sets the standard for the entire organization.  The Head Coach is the face of the team in front of the public and media. A Head Coach has to know how to handle players and put them in a position to be successful.

In week one of the 2015 NFL season we saw these three men bring out the best in their teams and put them in a position to win games. In Buffalo, we see Rex Ryan taking a defense with talented players and make them a cohesive unit that executes well from down to down.  Also, Ryan is a confidence builder who gave Tyrod Taylor the vote of confidence as the starting Quarterback. That confidence from the Head Coach allowed Taylor to have the repetitions in practice to be able to excel on game day and that confidence from the top filters down to the other players on the team.

In Atlanta, we saw a defense that was able to hold a high powered Eagles offensive in check for most of the game. That can be directly correlated with their Head Coach, Dan Quinn, who knew how to game plan against the Eagles in a way to put his team in a position to win the game. On paper, the Falcons defense looks average at best according to NFL standards. A good coach knows how to bring out the best in his team so they can perform at their best on game day. On Monday Night, Dan Quinn may have been more excited during the game at how his team played overall than anyone else.  That positive attitude is infectious and gives his players the confidence knowing this man is interested in them being successful.

With the Jets we saw a team with discipline that executed well on both sides of the ball.  This team played for each other, putting the interests of winning the game ahead of individual achievements. There are many talented players who are top tier at their position who went out of their way to use their experience and skills to better the team.  The Jets played as a cohesive unit and even when the coaches had to talk to players about mistakes, those players are receptive to instruction.

In life, the leadership sets the standards for those they work with and the NFL is no exception. Good coaches know how to uplift their players, put them in a position to do their best work and create a positive environment for success. Time will tell how Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn do in the long run, but week one is a positive sign of what the future holds for those coaches and their teams.

2015 NFL preview: NFC North

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC North:

Chicago Bears

2015 Projected Record: 8-8

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Packers; 11/1 vs Vikings; 11/22 vs Bronocs; 12/6 vs 49ers; 12/27 @ Buccaneers

Synopsis: Interesting changes have come to the Chicago Bears this offseason with the hiring of new Head Coach John Fox and departure of Pro Bowl Wide Receiver Brandon Marshall.  Fox will be overseeing a team that has talent but some major weak points. The defense is led by a strong group of linebackers with Jared Allen, Jonathan Bostic, and Lamarr Houston. The question is the strength and depth of their defensive line.  The defensive line is very important in a 3-4 defense because those lineman are responsible for engaging the offensive lineman in order for the Linebackers to run free in pursuit of the ball carrier and collapse the pocket around the opposing Quarterback.

The Bears offense does features a Pro Bowl Running Back in Matt Forte along with dynamic Wide Receiver Alson Jeffry. Despite the talented weapons on offense, starting Quarterback Jay Cutler is still an enigma; great physical skills but not the best decision maker. Whether the Bears make the playoffs or not rests solely on whether the offense can avoid making costly mistakes and if the defense can play up to their talent.  

Detroit Lions

2015 Projected Record: 9-7

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Chargers; 9/20 @ Vikings; 9/27 vs Broncos; 10/11 vs Cardinals; 11/1 @ Chiefs; 11/26 vs Eagles; 1/3 @ Bears

Synopsis: There is no question the Detroit Lions have a talented roster heading into the 2015 season.  A high powered offense headlined by Pro Bowl Quarterback Matthew Stafford and All-Pro Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson are complimented by solid, well-constructed defense that includes Linebacker DeAndre Levy and Defensive End Ezekiel Ansah.

The Lions, though, will have to navigate a difficult schedule if they are to get into the playoffs.  Three of their first three games of the season are difficult matchups away from home (Chargers, Vikings and Seahawks).  Furthermore the schedule they have in December is brutal with divisional rival game versus the Packers followed by two weeks of difficult matchups at St. Louis and at New Orleans.  This team has the talent to be a playoff contender, but their schedule will not make it easy on them.

Green Bay Packers

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Bears; 9/20 vs Seahawks; 10/18 vs Chargers; 11/1 @ Broncos; 12/3 @ Lions

Synopsis: The Green Bay Packers have starting at Quarterback arguably the best player at his position: Aaron Rodgers. I know the Packers will be without their top Wide Receiver Jordy Nelson for the season but this offense is still high octane. Wide Receivers Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are both dynamic playmakers who are complimented by the power running game of Running Back Eddie Lacy. The key will be defensive performance by an underrated unit led by Defensive Lineman BJ Raji and Linebacker Clay Matthews. If the Packers defense can hold up against high powered opponents such as Chargers, Broncos, Lions, and Cowboys than this team can set themselves up for a run at the Super Bowl

Minnesota Vikings

2015 Projected Record: 9-7

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Lions; 9/27 vs Chargers; 11/8 vs Rams; 12/6 vs Seahawks; 1/3 @ Packers

Synopsis: The Minnesota Vikings enter 2015 with a rested and ready to go Adrian Peterson at Running Back. Peterson is considered the best Running Back in the NFL and will be a great compliment for second year starting Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  The Vikings have constructed a solid roster on the offensive side to support Bridgewater and I expect the young Quarterback to exceed many expectations this season.

Meanwhile the Vikings defense is an underrated unit that is a solid mix of talented veterans and dynamic young athletes.  This team will be challenged throughout the 2015 season as they will be matching up with six teams boasting high scoring offenses (Lions, Chargers, Broncos, Packers, Falcons, and Giants).  The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint; if the Vikings can be consistent throughout the year they have a chance at making the playoffs. 

2015 NFL Preview: AFC South

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC South:

Houston Texans

2015 Projected Record: 10-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Chiefs; 10/4 @ Falcons; 10/8 vs Colts; 11/16 @ Bengals; 11/29 vs Saints; 12/13 vs Patriots

Synopsis: If you have read any of my other divisional previews this week, you may notice I mention the Huston Texans often, specifically their defense. Already a good defense, they added a veteran presence in Defensive Tackle Vince Wilfork to a unit already led by arguably the best Defensive player in the NFL, JJ Watt. Let us not forget about the talented starting Cornerback tandem of Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph. If Linebackers Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney both stay healthy all season, the rest of the league better watch out. This team has the potential to be one of the top five defenses in 2015.

On the offensive side of the ball is the home for the greatest concern for the Texans entering 2015. They will be without Pro Bowl Running Back Arian Foster for at least the first few weeks as he recovers from surgery. The pressure will be on new starting Quarterback Brian Hoyer to lead an offense mix of young playmakers (DeAndre Hopkins and C.J. Fiedorowicz) and underrated veterans (Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts).  If they can win early on this season, this 2015 team will gain confidence that can be the momentum that carries them into the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Bills; 10/8 @ Texans; 10/18 vs Patriots; 11/8 vs Broncos; 11/22 @ Falcons; 12/6 @ Steelers

Synopsis: Since drafting their starting Quarterback Andrew Luck in 2012, the Indianapolis Colts have gotten better, advancing farther in the playoffs each year.  But 2015 will be the first year Andrew Luck will have major offensive additions around him.  During the offseason the Colts added former Pro Bowl veterans Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, adding depth to an already solid offensive team.

The key for the Colts in 2015 will be their defense and how they play against high powered offenses such as the Patriots, Saints, Broncos, Falcons and Steelers. They also have several tough road games on their schedule, traveling to play at Buffalo, Houston, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Miami. If Andrew Luck continues to play great football and the defense is able to step up to slow down opponents, the Colts will win another AFC South Divisional Title. This season, the Colts have the potential to make a run at going to the Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Dolphins; 10/11 @ Buccaneers; 10/25 vs Bills; 11/8 @ Jets; 11/29 vs Chargers; 12/20 vs Falcons

Synopsis: The Jacksonville Jaguars spent the offseason solidifying the offense around second year starting Quarterback Blake Bortles. The additions of Offensive Lineman Zane Beadles and Tight End Julius Thomas will help in Bortles development as an NFL QB.  The odd part about the Jaguars roster is their defense. Head Coach Gus Bradley was a long time defensive coordinator and has a high football IQ; yet outside of Linebackers Paul  Posluszny and Telvin Smith along with Defensive End Andre Branch, the overall Jaguars roster on the defensive side is underwhelming at best.

This season the Jaguars have seven games versus high powered offenses (Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers, Falcons, Saints and Colts twice). How will their defense hold up in those matchups?  While the Jaguars have the offensive firepower to win a few shootouts this season, they will not be able to outscore everyone.

Tennessee Titans

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable:+2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Buccaneers; 10/11 vs Bills; 10/25 vs Falcons; 11/19 @ Jaguars; 12/27 vs Texans

Synopsis: The Tennessee Titans enter 2015 with another new starting Quarterback. This franchise has dealt with inconsistent play at that position for the last nine seasons.  The franchise is hoping that rookie Marcus Mariota will be able to translate his skills from the college game to the NFL.  In college Mariota won a Heisman Trophy and was known as one of the most accurate and poised QBs in all of college football.  His transition to the pro game will be the defining storyline of this season.

The Titans got no help from the NFL schedule makers as they start the season with two away games then their first four home games they play a top five Quarterback (Andrew Luck with Colts), potentially a top ten defense (Buffalo Bills) and then two high powered offenses (Dolphins and Falcons).  Historically a difficult schedule plus a rookie QB are not formula for a winning season in the NFL.

2015 NFL Preview : NFC South

This is my 18th season projecting NFL regular season and playoff results.  As per my tradition, I select the two teams I expect to win each division and conference after I preview all teams.  Only two times (Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 38) was I unable to project at least one of the teams that end up in the Super Bowl.  But on the flip side, the last eleven straight seasons has had a team that has gone from Worst to First to make the playoffs in the NFL and I only projected 4 of those.  So my formula is flawed but oh well, no one is perfect.

Quick cheat sheet to my system

*“Projections” – My resulting win/loss record after going through the full team’s schedule.

*“Plus/Minus Win/Loss differential” – The “plus” is how many more wins they could get, minus being how many fewer wins they could get.  These are based on what I label as “swing” games that could go either way.

Here is my preview of the NFC South:

Atlanta Falcons

2015 Projected Record: 10-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-2

Make or Break Games: 9/14 vs Eagles; 9/20 @ Giants; 9/27 @ Cowboys; 10/15 @ Saints; 11/22 vs Colts; 12/13 @ Panthers

Synopsis: In 2015 the Atlanta Falcons are looking for a bounce back year under new Head Coach Dan Quinn.  Before the season the Falcons made upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines but their defensive secondary is still questionable.  Also the Running Back position looks to be in flux as neither Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman have done much to set themselves apart to solidify the starter at that position.  But the team still has Matt Ryan at Quarterback, one of the best at his position in the NFL.

The Falcons have a brutal start to their regular season schedule with games against high powered offenses (Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys) and then a top ten defense (Texans).  If the Falcons can survive the tough stretches of their schedule, they should be able to make the playoffs in 2015.

Carolina Panthers

2015 Projected Record: 6-10

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/20 vs Texans; 9/27 vs Saints; 11/15 @ Titans; 12/13 vs Falcons; 12/20 @ Giants

Synopsis: The Carolina Panthers have two major obstacles going into the 2015 NFL season: a depleted unit on offense and a tough schedule in which they play nine potential playoff teams.  While their defense will be solid, I question if their offense will be able to keep up when they face high powered offenses such as the Saints, Eagles, Packers, Colts, Cowboys, and Falcons. Their starting Quarterback Cam Newton is very talented but the Panthers have average talent at the Wide Receiver and Offensive Guard positions.

This team lacks the depth to overcome any more injuries, especially on the offensive line. Outside of Michael Oher and Ryan Kalil, the Panthers do not have the talent up front to consistently protect their Quarterback or open lanes for their running backs.  Also, outside of Pro Bowl Tight End Greg Olsen, Newtown has very few dynamic offensive players around him.  This season may be a setback year for the Panthers.

New Orleans Saints

2015 Projected Record: 11-5

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/13 @ Cardinals; 10/4 vs Cowboys; 10/11 @ Eagles; 11/29 @ Texans; 12/21 vs Lions; 1/3 @ Falcons

Synopsis: The New Orleans Saints made a major move this offseason by trading away Pro Bowl Tight End Jimmy Graham to acquire Pro Bowl Center Max Unger.  Shoring up the offensive line was a big deal for the Saints with their offense functionality predicated on protecting the Quarterback. The additions to the defense will help the Saints as they navigate through the NFC on their way to the playoffs. The toughest task will be winning on the road as they play at five potential playoff teams (Eagles, Cardinals, Colts, Texans and Falcons). Home field advantage has been a big factor in past Saints’ success during the regular season and postseason, so winning on the road may make or break this team in 2015.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2015 Projected Record: 5-11

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +2/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/13 vs Titans; 9/27 @ Texans; 10/25 @ Redskins; 11/8 vs Giants; 12/6 vs Falcons

Synopsis: At first glance, the 2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster has a lot of talent on offense:  Dynamic Wide Receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans along with Pro Bowl caliber Running Back Doug Martin.  The defense roster looks like a typical Lovie Smith constructed team, with depth and talent at every position. 

Smith, the Bucs Head Coach, has two major hurdles to juggle this season. The first and foremost is his rookie starting Quarterback Jameis Winston.  Winston is the 2015 number one overall NFL Draft choice and after winning a Heisman Trophy along with a National Title in College, expectations are high.  Probably too high honestly.  Winston has talent, no one can deny that much; but what he does lack is maturity.  While in college he exhibited multiple issues on and off the field.  Winston’s development is not just important in 2015, but necessary for Smith to keep his job for the long term.

The second issue for Lovie Smith to handle in 2015 is a schedule that is littered with difficult matchups, from top 15 defenses (Rams and Texans) to high powered offenses (Eagles, Saints, Cowboys, Colts, and Giants), There will be games the Buccaneers will just be out matched in.