2015 College Football Preview: Big Ten Conference

The 2015 College Football Season begins this week and this will be the second year of the College Football Four-Team Playoff format.  This week I will be giving my preview of the major teams and players to watch for in 2015.  One of the elements that makes the College game so exciting is the unpredictability. There’s no preseason, always new players coming in as freshman, and past players leaving via graduation or early exit for the NFL.  Also, I enjoy watching College Football for the many different styles of offenses and defenses run on the field each week.  Unlike the NFL in which only a few different schemes are utilized each week, the College ranks over the last few decades have seen so many variants of styles and we the viewers have seen some of the greatest players succeed with these unique game plans.

Today I will highlight teams to watch from the Big Ten Football Conference:

University of Michigan

2015 Projected Record: 7-6

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +3/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/3 @ Utah; 9/26 vs BYU; 10/17 vs Michigan State; 10/31 @ Minnesota; 11/21 @ Penn State; 11/28 @ Ohio State

Synopsis: In his first year as Head Coach at his Alma mater, Jim Harbaugh has to navigate one of the toughest schedules in all of college football in 2015.  They are scheduled to play two teams in the top ten in the country (Michigan State and Ohio State), play away against three of the most underrated teams in the country (Utah, Penn State and Minnesota) and play a team with a potential Heisman trophy finalist (BYU with Taysom Hill).  Despite all of these obstacles, Harbaugh is great at bringing out the best in his players and maximizing their talents.  That projected record above is a low ball guesstimate; don’t be surprised if Michigan wins a couple games this season that they are “expected to lose”.  Michigan has a lot of depth on defense and that could prove a folly for many inter-conference opponents, allowing Michigan to walk away with a few upset victories in 2015.

Michigan State University

2015 Projected Record: 9-3

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games:  9/12 vs Oregon; 10/17 @ Michigan; 11/7 @ Nebraska; 11/21 @ Ohio State; 11/28 vs Penn State

Synopsis: The good news for Michigan State is their starting Quarterback Connor Cook is really good; bad news is their defense last season was underwhelming to say the least.  For years Michigan State has been known to play good defense but last season they got ran over by high powered offenses like Oregon and Baylor.  The potential of Michigan State Spartans season hinges on if that defense is improved enough from last season because they cannot expect their QB Cook to win every game for them.  Football is a team sport and the defense needs to step up this season.  If they don’t, then those gamblers in Las Vegas are going to lose money when placing bets and Spartans’ fans will be disappointed with a season in which they lost to rivals.

Penn State University

2015 Projected Record: 9-3

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-2

Make or Break Games: 10/17 @ Ohio State; 10/24 vs Maryland; 11/21 vs Michigan; 11/28 @ Michigan State

Synopsis: Penn State comes into the 2015 season with two major positives: upperclassmen depth at many positons and Christian Hackenberg at Quarterback.  Both of those positives could also become sticking points as the season progresses.  Before October 17^th’s game at Ohio State, Penn State plays four non-conference opponents with less talent on their rosters than they do.  This may lead to overconfidence.  Confidence is a powerful emotion, able to lift their level of play above and beyond what is expected or it can set one up for disappointment and failure.  From October 17^th through November 28^th Penn State has a gauntlet to survive of four games away from their home field against inter-conference opponents, two of them top ranked teams (Michigan State and Ohio State).  Hackenberg will be tested and so will the confidence of this team during the second half of the 2015 season.  Passing this difficult test will determine more than just what bowl they will end up playing in, it can also determine the potential NFL draft futures of many of the players on the roster.

University of Wisconsin

 2015 Projected Record: 11-1

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +0/-3

Make or Break Games: 9/5 vs Alabama; 10/10 @ Nebraska; 11/28 @ Minnesota

Synopsis: Wisconsin comes into the 2015 season with their third head coach in the last four seasons.  Despite the lack of stability, the team continues to be a consistent contender in the Big Ten Conference.  The Wisconsin Badgers start of the season against one of the top football teams in the nation (Alabama) then proceed to have one of the easiest schedules, in terms of strength of opponent, in the conference.  This may be a blessing in disguise because they will be starting a young offensive line, a new Running Back, and starting Quarterback Joel Stave is coming off a rough 2014 season.  It make take this team some time to come into their own and that schedule may allow them to grow through the season before facing equally talented competition again.

Ohio State University

2015 Projected Record: 11-1

Win/Loss Plus-Minus Variable: +1/-1

Make or Break Games: 9/7 @ Virginia Tech; 10/17 vs Penn State; 11/21 vs Michigan State; 11/28 @ Michigan

Synopsis: Ohio State enters the 2015 College Football season as the number one ranked team in the nation.  Last season’s national champions return 18 starters from last year’s team and they are arguably one of the most talent deep teams in college football.  The biggest pitfall for Ohio State this season will be underestimating their competition.  Starting the season on the road playing Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia will not be an easy task.  They also have at the end of their schedule a talented Michigan State team and then face their rivals, Michigan, in a game that never seems to play out as anticipated by experts.  Head Coach Urban Meyer has been down this road before and the burden will be on him to keep his team hungry while not being overconfident.  Starting the season without a couple players due to suspensions (One being the top Defense End in all of College Football, Joey Bosa) will make the first game the biggest obstacle from going undefeated in 2015.

The BS of the BCS

Now that the College Football regular season is over and the final Bowl Championship Series (BCS) standings have been revealed with all of the bowl game matchups, still everything is a mess.

While most people wouldn't dispute the National Title Game matchup between the two teams considered the best in Division I football, Oregon and Auburn, the rest of the matchups are bit head scratching.

Lets start with the Big East Conference Champion Connecticut facing Oklahoma (the Big 12 Champion) in the Fiesta Bowl. Some people may look at this as a "David versus Goliath" matchup, when in reality it more so resembles car race between a Minivan and a Corvette (Connecticut is the Minivan and Oklahoma being the Corvette). Connecticut won the Big East Championship because they won two close games against West Virgina and Pittsburgh, then finished the season with the best in-conference record. But they did not finish with the best overall record in the Big East (West Virgina finished the season at 9-3; Connecticut finished 8-4). West Virgina lost their three games by 6 or less points, one of those losses being to SEC powerhouse LSU. On the other hand, Connecticut lost three of their four games by 14 or more points, one of those losses being a 26-0 shutout against a Louisville team that finished the season 6-6.

There is no Big East Football Championship game, so the conference champion was awarded to Connecticut because they held the tie breaker over West Virgina since they beat them earlier in the season. As a result, Connecticut will face a Oklahoma team that is ranked 7th overall by the BCS college football rankings and has possibly four players on their offense that could be picked in the first round of the NFL draft. But because there is a rule that states that the Champion of the Big East gets an automatic berth in a major Bowl Game, Connecticut gets the opportunity to be overmatched against a very talented Oklahoma team.

Another conference that has thrown out a mess onto the college football landscape is the Big Ten. Three schools ended the season as co-Conference Champions: Wisconson, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Again, they have no conference championship game. All three schools finished with the same 11-1 overall record and the same 7-1 in-conference record. According to the BCS rules, the team that finished with the highest ranking in the final standings will get a trip to the Rose Bowl and the team with the second highest rank from the Big Ten can get an automatic berth into another major Bowl game. So Wisconson will play TCU in the Rose Bowl, Ohio State will play Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl and Michigan State gets left out of a major bowl, being selected to play Alabama in the Capital One Bowl.

And why was Wisconson and Ohio State ranked ahead of Michigan State? Beware, this gets complicated: Since Wisconson beat Ohio State and Iowa they get the highest ranking, even though Michigan State beat Wisconson they lost badly to Iowa who was beaten by Ohio State and since Michigan State didnt play Ohio State, the Michigan State Spartans get left out of the top 2 rankings of schools from the Big Ten conference. Confussed yet?

Dont worry, it gets better. The Orange Bowl will matchup the ACC Champion, Virgina Tech, against a top ranked non-conference champion, which according to the BCS is Stanford. The reason why Stanford is ranked 4th by the BCS is because their only loss was to Oregon, one of the two undefeated teams playing for the national title. Atleast this matchup is between two talented, high powered offenses and their isn't any great disparagement in talent or level of play during the season.

All of this chaos only accentuates the point that college football needs a playoff instead of this mess of bowl games that are selected matchups according to the computer results of the BCS. The BCS is basically a system that enables the universities and their conferences to make lots of money. Its not about the best matchups or the best teams playing for the title. Its not about the student-athletes, the fans, or what is fair. Its all about money. Although I love watching college football, I know that in the end, the BCS is just a bunch of BS!